Goldman Sachs Weekly Tracking: Real Estate Sales Recover, Oil Prices Decline to Ease Costs

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research’s weekly tracking of China’s macroeconomic activity and policies. It aims to closely monitor the impact of energy price supply shocks on China’s real economy through high-frequency data. The content covers four major dimensions—consumption and liquidity, production and investment, other macro activities, and markets and policies—and provides the latest data insights as of mid-June 2026. Overall, China’s economic activity shows structural divergence: real estate sales have rebounded somewhat but prices remain under adjustment; industrial production remains resilient; energy cost pressures have eased temporarily due to lower oil prices; and in the financial market, the RMB has performed strongly.

Core views

In terms of consumption and real estate, the data show both a recovery in volume and ongoing price adjustments. The average daily trading volume of new homes in 30 major cities rose slightly last week, surpassing the level of the same period last year; the average daily trading volume of second-hand homes in 16 cities remained roughly flat last week but stayed above the level of the previous year. However, prices continue to face downward pressure, with second-hand home prices in 70 cities reported by the National Bureau of Statistics continuing to fall in May. Additionally, the Morning Consult consumer confidence index recently showed a slight decline, reflecting that residents’ willingness to consume still needs to be closely watched. In terms of production and energy, industrial activity remained stable. Steel production rose slightly last week, and daily coal consumption at six major coastal power plants fluctuated but remained significantly higher than the same period last year, indicating that electricity demand remains solid. Worth noting is the change in energy prices: as Brent crude oil prices fell, domestic refined oil prices were reduced, with gasoline and diesel prices dropping by 515 yuan/ton and 495 yuan/ton respectively on June 18, helping to lower logistics and travel costs. Goldman Sachs’ real-time forecasting model (Nowcast) shows that China’s oil demand remains at 16.2 million barrels per day, and visible crude oil inventories have slightly declined over the past two weeks. In terms of markets and policies, liquidity and exchange rates showed new trends. Interbank repo rates edged up slightly last week, reflecting marginal changes in funding conditions. In terms of exchange rates, the RMB appreciated against both the U.S. dollar and the CFETS currency basket, and the counter-cyclical factor implied by the USD/CNY central parity rate has remained range-bound recently. On the policy front, since mid-April, the government has continuously issued multiple policy announcements in areas such as consumption subsidies, transformation of the monetary policy framework (with greater emphasis on price-based tools), fiscal fund management, and urban renewal, aiming to stabilize economic growth and promote structural transformation.

Analysis framework

The report adopts a ‘high-frequency data tracking’ analytical approach, a common method used in macro research to offset the lag of monthly official data. By tracking micro indicators updated weekly or even daily—such as urban property transactions, flight operation rates, port throughput, commodity prices, etc.—the institution assembles a real-time picture of macroeconomic performance. Specifically, the report breaks down economic activity into ‘demand side’ (consumption, mobility) and ‘supply side’ (production, investment), with particular attention paid to ‘price transmission’ (e.g., how oil prices affect downstream costs). For example, by comparing this year’s property transaction volumes with those of the same period last year, the report assesses the vitality of the real estate market; by tracking coal consumption at coastal power plants, it indirectly confirms the demand for industrial production and residential electricity use. This analytical approach enables investors to sense the pace of economic ups and downs ahead of the release of official GDP or industrial value-added data.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  Volume-Price Decomposition in High-Frequency Data Tracking

  The report separately tracks the ‘volume’ (quantity) and ‘price’ (value) of real estate transactions, as well as the ‘demand forecast’ (volume) and ‘inventory/price’ (value) of oil, to independently analyze marginal changes on both the supply and demand sides. This approach can more precisely identify whether market fluctuations are caused by insufficient demand or oversupply.

• Macroeconomic framework

  Nowcasting

  The report mentions using the GS Nowcast model to estimate China’s oil demand. This is a method that uses high-frequency alternative data (such as traffic flow, satellite images, etc.) to estimate current macroeconomic indicators (such as GDP, oil demand) in real time, addressing the lag problem of traditional statistical data releases and helping investors grasp the current economic pulse.

Key data

• Year-on-Year Change in New Home Sales Volume in 30 Cities+3.9%As of June 17, higher than the same period last year
• Year-on-Year Change in Second-Hand Home Sales Volume in 16 Cities+7.1%As of June 17, higher than the same period last year
• Domestic Gasoline Price Adjustment-515 yuan/tonReduced on June 18
• Domestic Diesel Price Adjustment-495 yuan/tonReduced on June 18
• China’s Oil Demand Forecast16.2 million barrels/dayGoldman Sachs’ latest Nowcast reading
• Local Government Special Bonds Issuance1.67 billion yuanCumulative issuance amount since the beginning of the year (Note: The original text says 1.67bn RMB, which may refer to a portion or specific caliber within the trillion-level figure; here we faithfully record the original numerical unit)

Impact & implications

The report believes that the reduction in energy prices (gasoline and diesel) will lower transportation and logistics costs in the short term, helping to ease imported inflationary pressures and potentially supporting consumer demand indirectly. The rebound in real estate transaction volumes is a positive signal, indicating that market vitality has recovered somewhat under policy support; however, the continued decline in prices suggests that inventory clearance and balance sheet repair are still underway, and the overall impact on investment remains to be seen. The appreciation of the RMB helps reduce import costs but may pose some challenges to export competitiveness. Overall, high-frequency data show that China’s economy remains resilient amid external uncertainties, and policies are gradually taking effect to stabilize growth.

What to watch

• The stabilization of real estate prices in the coming weeks
• The transmission of energy price fluctuations to downstream manufacturing costs
• The pace of acceleration in local government special bond issuance
• The trend of the RMB exchange rate and the central bank’s guidance on the midpoint rate