Goldman Sachs Previews ASCO 2026 China Pharma and Biotechnology Data, Focusing on Treatment Landscape Shifts in Lung, Prostate, and Gastric Cancers

Overview

Prior to the ASCO 2026 annual meeting, Goldman Sachs previews key tumor data from China pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. The report focuses on readouts that may alter first-line non-small cell lung cancer treatment standards, as well as new mechanism therapies in small cell lung cancer, later-line non-small cell lung cancer, solid tumors, castration-resistant prostate cancer, and gastric cancer. The overall tone is constructive, but emphasizes that multiple data points require conference disclosure, mature follow-up, and key endpoint verification.

Core views

Core views include: First, 1L NSCLC treatment standards are being continuously challenged by new regimens such as PD-1/VEGF, TROP2 ADC, PD-1/IL-2 biased bispecifics, and tri-specific antibodies; Second, the 2L+ efficacy threshold in the SCLC field is rising, with the report viewing >60% cORR as a key competitive benchmark; Third, updated survival data for IBI363 in later-line squamous NSCLC further supports its differentiation; Fourth, early or mid-stage data from companies like BeOne, Hengrui, Kelun, SBP/LaNova may impact valuations and competition expectations in relevant tracks; Fifth, abstract-stage data cannot substitute final conference presentations and long-term OS/PFS verification.

Analysis framework

The report employs conference abstract data comparison and cross-trial read-across methods, comparing newly disclosed assets with existing standard treatments or similar competing products on indicators such as ORR, PFS, OS, DOR, and Grade 3+ adverse events, combining indication, line of therapy, dosing regimen, sample size, and follow-up maturity to determine potential clinical positioning.

Methodology notes

• Clinical Efficacy ComparisonCross-Trial Read-Across

  Performing horizontal comparisons of ORR, PFS, OS, DOR, and safety data across different clinical trials.

  The report frequently compares new assets with reference therapies such as ivonescimab, sac-TMT, pembrolizumab, tarlatamab, docetaxel, and zolbetuximab to assess competitiveness; however, cross-trial comparisons are influenced by differences in patient enrollment, lines of therapy, follow-up time, and endpoint definitions.

• Treatment Landscape AssessmentLine of Therapy and Indication Positioning

  Assessing asset potential positioning based on 1L, 2L+, 3L+ and specific cancer subtype classifications.

  The report discusses 1L NSCLC, 2L+ SCLC, later-line squamous NSCLC, 2L+ HCC, later-line mCRPC, and 1L gastric cancer separately, emphasizing that the competitive significance of the same drug mechanism differs across lines of therapy.

• Risk AssessmentEfficacy-Safety Balance

  Observing tumor response and high-grade adverse events simultaneously.

  The report compares not only ORR and PFS but also focuses on Grade 3+ TRAE, Grade 3+ TEAE, diarrhea, hematologic toxicity, VEGF-related adverse events, and ocular adverse events to determine whether a regimen possesses a sustainable treatment window.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• IBI363

  Innovent's PD-1/IL-2a biased bispecific antibody, involving 1L NSCLC and later-line squamous NSCLC.

  Strengths

  Reported 81.8% cORR with chemotherapy in 1L NSCLC, mPFS 10.1 months and mOS 18.2 months in later-line squamous NSCLC, showing strong efficacy signals.

  Weaknesses

  Some results rely on special dosing regimens and early data; mechanism explanation, dose selection, and long-term safety require more disclosure.

  Comparison

  Report compares with ivonescimab, sac-TMT, pembrolizumab, Dato-DXd, and docetaxel.

  Risks

  Cross-trial comparison bias, insufficient sample size and follow-up maturity, and regulatory progression uncertainty.

• alveltamig / ZG006

  Zelgen's DLL3/DLL3/CD3 tri-specific TCE, used for SCLC.

  Strengths

  12-month OS rate of 65.9%/59.2% in 3L+ SCLC, mDOR 12.6 months, 12-month PFS rate 50.5%.

  Weaknesses

  Still requires clearer patient baseline and more mature survival data confirmation.

  Comparison

  Report compares tarlatamab and ZL-1310, considering DOR and PFS may possess differentiation.

  Risks

  Rapid increase in SCLC competitive assets; efficacy sustainability and safety require further verification.

• ivonescimab

  Akeso/SMMT's PD-1/VEGF bispecific; report focuses on its HARMONi-6 OS data and 2L SCLC combination regimens.

  Strengths

  Already has high ORR reference in 1L NSCLC; 2L SCLC combination with liposomal irinotecan shows 62% ORR and 9.8 months mPFS.

  Weaknesses

  Key OS data awaits conference disclosure; comparability across different indications and combination regimens is limited.

  Comparison

  Report uses it as 1L NSCLC competitive benchmark, comparing with pumitamig, SSGJ707, sac-TMT, etc.

  Risks

  OS below expectations, VEGF-related safety, and intensified competition from similar products.

• sac-TMT

  Kelun Biotech's TROP2 ADC, situated in the context of critical readouts for 1L NSCLC.

  Strengths

  Reported 70.2% ORR in OptiTROP-Lung05, serving as an important candidate for reshaping 1L NSCLC treatment standards.

  Weaknesses

  Report primarily cites abstract data seen so far; still requires more mature survival and safety details.

  Comparison

  Compares with IBI363, ivonescimab, pembrolizumab in 1L NSCLC.

  Risks

  Similar ADC competition, toxicity management, and OS confirmation risks.

• BGB-43395

  BeOne Medicines' CDK4 inhibitor, for HR+/HER2- Breast Cancer.

  Strengths

  ORR of 58%/68% for 240mg/400mg doses combined with letrozole, approaching atirmociclib despite shorter follow-up.

  Weaknesses

  Poor tolerance at high doses, higher Grade 3+ diarrhea observed at 600mg dose.

  Comparison

  Report compares Pfizer's atirmociclib.

  Risks

  Whether efficacy deepens upon extended follow-up, gastrointestinal toxicity, and dose optimization risks.

• LM-302

  SBP/LaNova's CLDN18.2 ADC, combined with toripalimab and chemotherapy for 1L Gastric Cancer.

  Strengths

  ORR 69.2%, PFS 12.55 months, superior to zolbetuximab plus chemotherapy data cited in report.

  Weaknesses

  PD-1 addition may contribute efficacy, making it difficult to attribute solely to ADC.

  Comparison

  Report compares zolbetuximab plus chemotherapy.

  Risks

  Unclear attribution of combination regimen contribution, CLDN18.2 expression stratification, and subsequent randomized controlled validation risks.

Key data

• IBI363 Combined Chemotherapy cORR in 1L NSCLC81.8%Special 3-1.5mg/kg induction-maintenance regimen; Report compares ivonescimab 75.9%, sac-TMT 70.2%, and pembrolizumab 48.3%.
• pumitamig Combined Chemotherapy ORR70%ROSETTA Lung-02 Phase 2/3 preliminary data; PFS and OS not disclosed in abstract.
• SSGJ707 Monotherapy 1L NSCLC cORR and mPFS67.6%; 12.4 monthsUpdated after extending follow-up by 15.2 months; Grade 3+ TRAE is 42.2%.
• alveltamig 12-month OS Rate in 3L+ SCLC65.9%/59.2%Corresponds to 10mg/30mg doses respectively; report suggests potential underlying median OS of 15 to 20 months.
• IBI363 Later-Line Squamous NSCLC mPFS and mOS10.1 months; 18.2 months3mg/kg dose updated in IO-treated squamous NSCLC cohort; report deems this supports differentiation.
• BGB-43395 ORR in HR+/HER2- Breast Cancer58%/68%240mg/400mg doses combined with letrozole, 6.8 months follow-up; report considers roughly equivalent to atirmociclib.
• BGB-B2033 cORR and Grade 3+ TRAE in 2L+ HCC28.9%; 8.2%GPC3/4-1BB bispecific; report considers safety relatively mild/benign.
• HRS-5041 PFS in Pretreated mCRPC11.0 monthsHengrui's AR PROTAC; report states it may be the first AR PROTAC to enter Phase 3.
• LM-302 Combined toripalimab/Chemotherapy ORR and PFS in 1L Gastric Cancer69.2%; 12.55 monthsReport compares zolbetuximab plus chemotherapy ORR 53.8%, PFS 6.8 months, but notes PD-1 addition may contribute partial efficacy.

Impact & implications

If ASCO 2026 conference presentation confirms trends in efficacy and safety among abstracts, Chinese innovator drug companies' global competitiveness across indications like lung, gastric, prostate, liver, and breast cancer may further improve. For investment, potential impact mainly manifests in treatment standard changes, revaluation of similar mechanisms, advancement of subsequent regulatory paths, and enhanced licensing collaboration expectations; however, early sample sizes, cross-trial comparability, and insufficient long-term survival data remain primary constraints.

Risks

• Multiple data points come from abstracts or early Phase 1/2 studies, with limited sample sizes and immature follow-up times.
• Cross-trial comparisons are influenced by differences in inclusion criteria, lines of therapy, dosing regimens, endpoint definitions, and data lock dates.
• Some assets show strong efficacy but safety requires observation, including Grade 3+ TRAE, Grade 3+ TEAE, gastrointestinal toxicity, hematologic toxicity, VEGF-related adverse events, and ocular adverse events.
• If key OS, PFS, and DOR data cannot be confirmed at the conference or subsequent updates, asset differentiation may be weakened.
• Intense competition exists in similar mechanisms, particularly PD-1/VEGF, TROP2 ADC, B7-H3 ADC, CLDN18.2, and DLL3 targeted therapies.
• Regulatory pathways, registration trial design, and commercial positioning remain uncertain.

What to watch

• IVonescimab Overall Survival data disclosure in HARMONi-6 on May 31, 2026.
• IBI363 special induction-maintenance regimen mechanism explanation, dose selection, and longer-term safety.
• CS2009 updated efficacy and safety in approx. 50 1L PD-L1 positive NSCLC patients.
• alveltamig Phase 1/2 patient baseline, DOR, PFS, and mature OS data.
• Registration progress rhythm of IBI363 in IO-treated squamous NSCLC.
• Whether BeOne solid tumor pipeline ORR continues to deepen and toxicity remains controllable under longer follow-up.
• PFS, OS, and Phase 3 development progress of B7-H3 ADC and AR PROTAC in mCRPC.
• Randomized controlled validation of CLDN18.2 ADC, CLDN18.2/CD3 TCE, and FGFR2 regimens in first-line and later-line gastric cancer treatment.