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NEV Order Growth Strong, Penetration Rate Exceeds 63%

Institution
Goldman Sachs
Date
20260602
Authors
Tina Hou, Jenny Du
Company
-
Ticker
-
Industry
AI, Internet Retail, Automotive
Rating
BullishMedium confidenceShort-termThe research report indicates a rebound in NEV orders with significant YoY growth, showing a short-term positive trend in the industry.
AuthorsTina Hou, Jenny Du
CoverageChina
Research firm divisions/subsidiariesEquity Research(Division/Team)、Goldman Sachs (China) Securities Company Limited(Subsidiary/Legal Entity)

AI summary card

NEV Order Growth Strong, Penetration Rate Exceeds 63%

In Week 22 2026, NEV orders increased 20% YoY with penetration rate reaching 63%, showing strong growth momentum.

New Energy VehiclesOrder GrowthPenetration RateChina MarketAutomotive Industry
  • NEV weekly orders increased 20% YoY
  • Penetration rate reached 63%
  • Major brands saw significant order growth
  • Battery raw material prices slightly declined
  • Dealer discounts narrowed

Report interpretation

Overview

This report focuses on the performance of China's new energy vehicle market in Week 22 2026. Data shows NEV orders increased 11% MoM and 20% YoY, with penetration rate rising to 63%. Major brands' order growth was driven by new model launches, such as NIO ES9 and AITO M9 refresh. Meanwhile, battery raw material lithium carbonate prices slightly decreased, while power battery cell prices remained stable.

Core views

Demand side: The new energy vehicle market shows strong demand, particularly due to order surges brought by new model launches. For example, NIO, Li Auto, and BYD orders increased 228%, 92%, and 15% MoM respectively. Additionally, as of May 24, NEV retail sales decreased 11% YoY but increased 13% MoM; wholesale sales increased 1% YoY and 13% MoM. Supply side: Order growth from major new energy vehicle companies indicates that supply chains and production capacity can support market demand growth. Although traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) dealer discounts remain relatively high, average discounts for both NEVs and fuel vehicles have narrowed, which may reflect increasing market rationality. Price and Cost: On the upstream battery materials side, battery-grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 179,500 RMB per ton, down 0.8% MoM. However, prices of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) cells remained stable, showing that battery cost pressure has eased but remains challenging. Market Dynamics: Upcoming important events include new model launch plans from multiple automakers, such as BYD Datang, Li Auto L8 refresh, and Xpeng MONA L03, which are expected to further drive market demand.

Analysis framework

The report evaluates market conditions by tracking weekly new energy vehicle order volumes, penetration rates, and price trends. First, through MoM and YoY analysis of key brand order data, it assesses overall market activity and growth momentum. Second, combined with upstream and downstream industry chain price changes, especially battery raw material and cell price trends, it evaluates industry profitability and cost control. Finally, by monitoring upcoming major events (such as new model launches, industry data releases), it predicts potential market changes in the short term.

Methodology notes

  • Industry Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

    Measuring market demand fluctuations through observing new energy vehicle order changes

    The report uses order data to reflect consumer demand intensity for new energy vehicles, thereby evaluating market supply-demand balance.

  • Industry Analysis FrameworkVolume-price decomposition

    Analyzing the relationship between order quantities and price discounts

    The report compares order growth rates with price discount ranges across different time periods to reveal market sales strategies and their effectiveness.

  • Industry Analysis FrameworkIndustry Chain Upstream-Downstream Transmission

    Focusing on the impact of battery raw material price changes on vehicle manufacturing

    The report monitors raw material price trends such as lithium carbonate to assess their impact on new energy vehicle manufacturers' production costs and profit margins.

Key data

  • NEV Weekly Orders MoM Growth+11%Week 22 2026 MoM growth
  • NEV Weekly Orders YoY Growth+20%Week 22 2026 YoY growth
  • NEV Penetration Rate63%As of May 24
  • Battery-Grade Lithium Carbonate Price179.5k RMB/tonDown 0.8% MoM
  • NIO Orders MoM Growth+228%Mainly due to new ES9 model launch
  • Li Auto Orders MoM Growth+92%Mainly due to new model launch
  • BYD Orders MoM Growth+15%Mainly due to model updates

Impact & implications

The research report believes that strong growth in the new energy vehicle market will benefit related industry chain companies, especially battery manufacturers and component suppliers. With continued penetration rate growth, traditional fuel vehicle market share may be compressed. For investors, focusing on companies with technological innovation capabilities and brand advantages will be key to seizing industry opportunities.

Risks

  • Intensifying competition in the new energy vehicle market may pressure profit margins
  • Raw material price volatility affects vehicle manufacturing costs
  • Policy changes may create uncertain impacts on industry development

What to watch

  • CAAM to release passenger vehicle and NEV wholesale/retail data on June 10-11
  • NIO to officially launch ONVO L60 refresh model on June 11
  • BYD plans to launch Datang model in June
  • Li Auto to launch L8 refresh model before end of June
  • Xpeng plans to launch MONA L03 model in July
Zhejiang ICP No. 2022035445-5
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