Shared mobility is moving from a supplementary service to urban transportation infrastructure

Overview

This report is part of Bernstein’s “Mobility Revolution” series and focuses on the structural shifts in Japan’s automotive and auto parts industry under shared mobility trends. The core view is that private car ownership demand in Japan is losing momentum due to demographic, income, cost, and declining willingness among younger people to hold a driver’s license, but underlying travel demand has not disappeared. Therefore, on-demand car sharing, ridesharing/ride-hailing services, and future robotaxi will become more important components of urban transportation.

Core views

Core views in the report include: first, car sharing and ridesharing/ride-hailing services are becoming part of urban mobility, and Japan’s car-sharing market is led by Times Car Share under Park24, with both supply and membership growing rapidly; second, private car demand in Japan is affected by a shrinking working-age population, weaker purchasing power, rising vehicle ASPs, higher ownership costs, and plateauing growth in license holders; third, shared mobility is more economically rational than private ownership for low-mileage users and can complement public transportation as a first/last-mile solution; fourth, industry value is likely to move from one-time vehicle sales to mobility ecosystems, fleet operations, and vehicle lifecycle services, with Toyota seen as best positioned to capture this downstream value.

Analysis framework

The report applies structural industry analysis, combining indicators such as shared mobility supply, member growth, taxi driver shortages, demographics, income and costs, license holders, vehicle stock, and city travel distance, to assess the substitution and complementarity between private car ownership demand and shared mobility demand, and then map it to platform-based competitive capability among automakers.

Methodology notes

• industry_structureownership_to_access_shift

  Shift from ownership to access

  The report views shared mobility as a structural trend in which users move from privately owning cars to accessing mobility on demand, with a focus on the relationships among demographics, income, costs, and travel demand.

• cost_comparisonownership_vs_car_sharing_vs_ride_sharing

  Annual cost comparison of car ownership, car sharing, and ridesharing

  Using a Tokyo-user case study, the report compares vehicle depreciation, parking costs, insurance, maintenance, fuel, time-based fees, and distance-based fees to show that shared mobility is more economical for users with low annual mileage.

• ecosystem_strategyfleet_lifecycle_monetization

  Fleet lifecycle monetization

  The report argues that shared mobility fleets can generate recurring revenue through inspections, parts, software maintenance, fleet management, insurance, and auto financing, and that scale and data capabilities will become competitive advantages for automakers.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Toyota Motor Corporation / 7203.JP

  Shared mobility ecosystem beneficiary

  Strengths

  A global fleet of about 150 million vehicles, Toyota Smart Center data capabilities, Toyota Share, and partnerships with Grab, Uber, and Waymo support its ability to capture fleet and platform downstream value.

  Weaknesses

  Still exposed to weakening private-car demand in Japan and execution risks associated with industry transformation.

  Comparison

  Compared with most traditional automakers, the report sees Toyota as having stronger scale and ecosystem partnership advantages.

  Risks

  The shared mobility profit model may materialize more slowly than expected, robotaxi commercialization could be delayed, and regulation and competition may change.

• Suzuki Motor Corporation / 7269.JP

  Japan automotive coverage name

  Strengths

  Maintains a low-priced model lineup; ASP rose from JPY 1.4mn in 2015 to JPY 2.0mn in 2025. The report gives an Outperform rating.

  Weaknesses

  Low-priced models may still be demand-sensitive under margin pressure.

  Comparison

  Compared with Toyota, the report does not highlight Suzuki’s mobility platform ecosystem advantage.

  Risks

  Slowing incremental car ownership demand in Japan, rising costs, and intensifying competition.

• Honda Motor Co Ltd / 7267.JP

  Japan automotive coverage name

  Strengths

  Still one of the major Japanese automakers.

  Weaknesses

  ASP rose from JPY 2.3mn in 2015 to JPY 3.5mn in 2025, a 50% increase, potentially increasing the burden on consumers.

  Comparison

  Rated Market-Perform, weaker than Toyota and Suzuki Outperform.

  Risks

  Slower private car demand growth, cost increases, and insufficient capture of platform-based value.

• Nissan Motor Co Ltd / 7201.JP

  Japan automotive coverage name

  Strengths

  Has a traditional auto manufacturing base.

  Weaknesses

  Rated Underperform in the report and does not show clear advantages in the shared mobility ecosystem.

  Comparison

  Rated below Toyota, Suzuki, and Honda.

  Risks

  Weakening demand structure, earnings pressure, and limited capture of downstream ecosystem value.

• Subaru Corporation / 7270.JP

  Japan automotive coverage name

  Strengths

  Has brand strength and product positioning.

  Weaknesses

  ASP rose from JPY 4.2mn in 2015 to JPY 5.5mn in 2025, and higher vehicle prices may increase ownership cost pressures.

  Comparison

  Rated Underperform.

  Risks

  Slowing private ownership demand, shared mobility substitution, and cost and pricing pressure.

• Mazda Motor Corporation / 7261.JP

  Japan automotive coverage name

  Strengths

  Has a traditional automaker product lineup.

  Weaknesses

  ASP rose from JPY 2.9mn in 2015 to JPY 4.3mn in 2025, a 49% increase that may reduce demand elasticity.

  Comparison

  Rated Underperform, and the report does not emphasize a mobility ecosystem advantage.

  Risks

  Demand slowing, price increases, and insufficient platform capability.

Key data

• Japan car-sharing vehicle scale21 in 2002; 85,000 in 2025; CAGR 43%Membership increased from 50 to 5.6 million over the same period, with a CAGR of 66%.
• Japan car-sharing market shareTimes Car Share 66% by vehicles, 58% by membersMitsui Car Shares and Toyota Share are also major participants.
• Number of taxi drivers in Japan356,000 in 2000; 220,000 in 2025A 38% decline by 2025, supporting ridesharing/ride-hailing as a solution to driver shortages.
• Japan app users for ride-hailing and taxi dispatch8.6 million in 2020; expected 21.0 million in 2027Ridesharing/ride-hailing users are expected to reach 4.5 million in 2027, accounting for 22% of dispatch app users.
• Global shared mobility marketExpected USD 236bn by 2030, CAGR above 10%This includes robotaxi, which remains early-stage but is viewed as a long-term shared mobility form.
• Share of working-age population in Japan68% in 2000; 59% in 2025Japan’s total population declined from a peak of 128 million in 2009 to 123 million in 2025.
• Japan actual monthly disposable incomeJPY 499k peak in 2020; JPY 476k in 2025A 5% decline from the peak after inflation effects.
• Japan average automotive ASPJPY 2.9mn in 2015; JPY 3.8mn in 2025Industry average up 32%, with ASP increasing significantly at several manufacturers.
• Driving license ownership rate among young workers87% in 2017; 67% in 2025The willingness of non-license holders to obtain a new license fell from 32% in 2017 to 15% in 2025.
• Japan passenger car stock57.7 million in 2008; 62.3 million in 2025CAGR over the same period was only 0.44%, with growth near zero recently.

Impact & implications

For investment implications, the expansion of shared mobility may not only reduce the risk of weakening private car purchases, but also create a new downstream revenue pool for automakers that can build fleet scale, data platforms, and ecosystem partnerships. Toyota is highlighted in the report because of its global fleet of roughly 150 million vehicles, the data capabilities of Toyota Smart Center, and partnerships with Grab, Uber, and Waymo; manufacturers that fail to build mobility ecosystems may struggle to capture downstream value and may remain confined to a traditional vehicle manufacturing role.

Risks

• The pace of deregulation for shared mobility may be slower than expected, especially as ridesharing/ride-hailing in Japan remains constrained by regional, time-of-day, and taxi company regulatory restrictions.
• Slower demand for private car ownership may pressure new vehicle sales; if lifecycle revenues are insufficient to compensate, traditional automakers' profitability could be affected.
• Robotaxi remains early stage, with uncertainty around technology, regulation, and commercialization progress.
• Competition among shared mobility platforms may make it harder for automakers to capture downstream value, which may flow more to platform operators.
• Population decline and weakening real incomes could simultaneously suppress travel frequency and spending power.

What to watch

• Whether Japan’s shared mobility vehicle supply continues to keep up with membership growth.
• Further relaxation by MLIT of operating areas and time windows for ridesharing/ride-hailing services.
• Trends in the number of taxi drivers, registered ridesharing drivers, and dispatch app penetration.
• Commercialization progress of Toyota’s partnerships with Grab, Uber, and Waymo.
• The speed of technology validation, regulatory approval, and fleet deployment for robotaxi in Japan and global markets.
• Trends in young adults’ driving-license ownership rates, new license attainment, and passenger car stock growth in Japan.