Goldman Sachs Maintains a Buy Rating on MINISO as Membership, IP, and Large-Store Strategy Progress Smoothly

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' summary of a virtual NDR held after MINISO's 2025 results. Management and investors discussed key priorities for 2026, including the membership system, the IP business, channel upgrades, large stores and the Miniso Land strategy, US Plaza stores, improvements in ASEAN markets, O2O instant retail, and gross margin management. The conclusion is positive and the Buy rating is maintained.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes MINISO's growth drivers are shifting from simple store expansion to membership operations, IP categories, store-format upgrades, and more granular regional execution. In China, membership benefit adjustments in pilot regions have already produced better-than-expected results, and large-store renovations have significantly improved same-store sales; the US Plaza model outperforms mall stores in both sales and margins; and the O2O business is approaching regular-store sales levels with lower investment. On gross margin, management expects China-wide gross margin to remain stable, while a lower share of US local sourcing should also help balance pricing, volume, IP, and value products.

Analysis framework

The report is mainly based on the company management's NDR discussion, store operating data, membership metrics, store performance across regions, gross margin and procurement mix discussions, and Goldman Sachs' 12-month target price valuation framework. The valuation uses 15x 2026E P/E to derive the ADR and H-share target prices.

Methodology notes

• Valuation method12-month target price

  15x 2026E P/E

  Goldman Sachs' 12-month target price is based on 15x 2026E P/E, resulting in US$21.3/ADR and HK$42/H-share.

• Factor frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors

  Goldman Sachs' factor profile compares a stock's attributes versus the market and industry peers through growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentiles.

• M&A frameworkM&A Rank

  M&A Rank 3

  Goldman Sachs' M&A Rank ranges from 1 to 3 to measure a company's probability of becoming an acquisition target; MINISO is disclosed as M&A Rank 3, which typically means M&A factors have little impact on the target price.

• Database toolQuantum

  Goldman Sachs proprietary financial database

  Quantum is used to access historical company financials, forecasts, and ratio data, supporting deep single-name analysis and cross-industry comparison.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• MNSO.US

  Core coverage name, ADR

  Strengths

  Buy rating, target price of US$21.3; membership, IP, large stores, US Plaza stores, and the O2O business all provide growth support.

  Weaknesses

  Intensifying competition in China and the quality and expense intensity of some overseas expansions may affect earnings realization.

  Comparison

  This is the same company as 9896.HK but a different listed security; the ADR target price implies about 31.5% upside.

  Risks

  Declining efficiency at China stores, slower-than-expected recovery in global same-store sales, geopolitical risks, higher-than-expected operating expenses, and weaker-than-expected Yonghui profitability.

• 9896.HK

  H-share listing of the same company

  Strengths

  Target price of HK$42; reflects the same fundamental improvement, including the large-store strategy, membership system, and overseas expansion.

  Weaknesses

  Affected by Hong Kong market liquidity, valuation conditions, and the same fundamental risks as the company.

  Comparison

  The current H-share price is HK$32.50, and the target price implies about 29.2% upside, slightly below the upside disclosed for the ADR.

  Risks

  Broadly consistent with the ADR, with additional influence from Hong Kong market sentiment and liquidity.

Key data

• ADR target priceUS$21.312-month target price; current price US$16.20; implied upside of about 31.5%.
• H-share target priceHK$4212-month target price; current price HK$32.50; implied upside of about 29.2%.
• Membership sales contributionAbout 50% to over 60%Result after the membership system upgrade in the Shenzhen pilot area in China.
• New-member repurchase rateAbove 20%New-member repurchase rate doubled after the upgrade.
• Existing-member repurchase rateAbove 40%Improved after the membership mechanism upgrade.
• Stores remodeled in China in 2025About 300After remodeling, same-store sales rose by about 50% and the rent-to-sales ratio declined by a low-single-digit percentage points.
• Miniso Land 2026 target100 storesA significant increase from 26 stores in 2025.
• US Plaza store performanceAbout 60% higher same-store sales, about 10 percentage points higher OPMCompared with 2024 mall stores, some stores can achieve store-level margins of about 30%.
• 2026 O2O business scale targetRMB 1 billionManagement expects profit contribution to be in the low-single-digit percentage range.
• 2026E revenue forecastRMB 25,257.8 millionFrom Goldman Sachs' forecast table.
• 2026E EPSRMB 10.24From Goldman Sachs' forecast table.
• 2026E P/E10.9xFrom Goldman Sachs' forecast table.

Impact & implications

The report is positive for MINISO's equity: the membership system and store renovations improve China same-store and store-level efficiency, IP and collectibles expansion should improve the product mix, US Plaza stores validate efficient overseas store formats, and the O2O model provides a growth path with lower capital intensity. If these strategies continue to be implemented, the company should be able to support revenue growth, margin stability, and valuation re-rating. However, ASEAN markets, the recovery of global same-store sales, the quality of store expansion, and expense investment remain key uncertainties.

Risks

• Intensifying competition in the China market, lagging product innovation, or quality issues could lead to lower store efficiency and affect retailers' willingness to expand partnerships.
• Recovery in global same-store sales growth and store expansion could fall short of expectations.
• Geopolitical risks could affect overseas operations and supply chains.
• Operating expenses and additional investments could exceed expectations.
• Yonghui profitability may fall short of expectations.
• Some ASEAN markets such as Indonesia and the Philippines expanded rapidly in the past and have uneven store quality, so the pace of improvement still needs to be monitored.
• Inflation in costs such as oil-derived products has not shown pressure so far, but if costs rise in the future, gross margin could still be affected.

What to watch

• Membership sales contribution, new-member acquisition rate, and repurchase rate after the China membership system is rolled out from pilot areas such as Shenzhen.
• Whether Miniso Land stores can increase to 100 in 2026 as planned, and whether the lower-tier-city store model can be replicated.
• The share of new openings using the US Plaza format, same-store sales, average ticket size, basket size, and store-level operating profit margin.
• Whether the O2O instant retail business can reach RMB 1 billion in scale while maintaining its lower capex and opex advantages.
• The effects of store-format upgrades, the pruning of inefficient stores, and management team refreshes in ASEAN markets, especially Indonesia and the Philippines.
• Full-year gross margin in China, discount discipline, and changes in the share of US local sourcing.
• The growth potential of the IP and collectibles category and sales performance after shopping-mall stores shift more heavily toward collectibles.