North American data center project pipeline rises to 295GW, further strengthening demand for power and electrical equipment
AI summary card
North American data center project pipeline rises to 295GW, further strengthening demand for power and electrical equipment
Bernstein's first monthly data center capacity tracker shows the project pipeline increased 14GW month over month to 295GW, under-construction capacity rose to 59GW, and the BTM power pipeline rose to 115GW, continuing to support the medium- to long-term outlook for electrical equipment, engineering and construction, and AI infrastructure chains.
- The project pipeline grew 5% month over month to 295GW, roughly 3x year over year, with Texas accounting for about 46% of the new pipeline added this month.
- Under-construction capacity increased 6.5GW month over month to 59GW, with colocation providers, developers, and hyperscalers contributing about 95% of the new capacity under construction.
- Stranded capacity rose to 32GW, or about 11% of the total pipeline, with NIMBY and permitting resistance being key reasons.
- The BTM pipeline increased 28GW year to date to 115GW, or about 39% of the total project pipeline, providing demand catalysts for CAT, CMI, ETN, HUBB, and others.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report is Bernstein's first installment of its monthly Data Center Capacity Tracker series, monitoring changes in North American data center capacity across project pipeline, under construction, stranded, and operational stages, and breaking it down by operator type, hyperscalers, neoclouds, colocation providers, and geography. The key conclusion is that data center construction driven by AI and cloud demand continues to expand rapidly, while stranded capacity is also increasing due to power interconnection, permitting, and local opposition.
Core views
The total data center project pipeline has increased to 295GW, up 14GW month over month and roughly 3x year over year; under-construction capacity rose to 59GW, materially above active capacity; behind-the-meter power solutions are accelerating, currently accounting for only 4% of the operational base, but 22% of under-construction capacity and about 39% of the project pipeline. This shift reinforces medium- to long-term demand for electrical equipment, on-site power generation, large engines, engineering and construction, and the data center supply chain.
Analysis framework
The report uses a monthly capacity-tracking framework that classifies data center capacity by development stage, operator type, geography, and power-delivery method, and combines company-disclosed revenue opportunity per MW to estimate the data center TAM for electrical OEMs. The rating section follows Bernstein's 12-month relative performance framework for the covered companies.
Methodology notes
Tracking data center capacity by stage, operator, and geography
Tracks project pipeline, under-construction, stranded, and active capacity, and compares month-over-month, year-over-year, and year-to-date changes to assess the strength of AI and cloud infrastructure buildouts.
Estimating TAM based on current pipeline capacity and revenue opportunity per MW
The report uses current project pipeline capacity and company-disclosed $/MW opportunity to estimate the potential data center TAM for PWR, ETN, LGN, VRT, Schneider, ABB, and others.
Tracking data center behind-the-meter or self-supplied power solutions
BTM power is taking a larger share of new projects, reflecting grid interconnection bottlenecks and developers' reliance on independent power solutions, while also increasing demand for electrical distribution equipment and on-site power generation equipment.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- ETNElectrical equipment beneficiary
- Strengths
- Strong demand for data center electrical distribution equipment; electrical equipment spending for on-site power projects is about 30% higher than for pure grid-connection projects.
- Weaknesses
- Valuation and order realization depend on the actual start and delivery pace of data center projects.
- Comparison
- Bernstein rates ETN Outperform with a $509 target price; compared with Market-Perform names, the benefit thesis is more direct.
- Risks
- Project cancellations, permitting delays, changes in grid interconnection, or slower capex may affect orders.
- HUBBElectrical equipment beneficiary
- Strengths
- Benefits from data center electrification, multi-year end-market growth, and healthy backlog.
- Weaknesses
- Demand strength is highly tied to the build cycle of large data centers.
- Comparison
- Bernstein maintains Outperform with a $584 target price.
- Risks
- Price pressure after supply-chain bottlenecks ease or delays in new projects.
- CATPotential beneficiary of large engines and on-site power
- Strengths
- The acceleration of BTM power supports CAT's plan to scale large-engine capacity to 3x.
- Weaknesses
- The report rates it Market-Perform, suggesting the market may already reflect part of the growth expectation.
- Comparison
- Compared with ETN and HUBB, CAT benefits more from on-site power equipment than from electrical distribution.
- Risks
- BTM adoption below expectations, fuel and emissions constraints, and project-permitting risk.
- CMIPotential entrant in on-site power
- Strengths
- The BTM trend may support CMI's entry into the prime power market.
- Weaknesses
- The opportunity still carries entry and execution uncertainty.
- Comparison
- Bernstein maintains Market-Perform with a $700 target price.
- Risks
- Uncertainty around competitive dynamics, product fit, and customer adoption speed.
- PWREngineering and power infrastructure-related name
- Strengths
- Under the current pipeline, the estimated data center TAM is about $4T, indicating a very large potential market.
- Weaknesses
- Rated Market-Perform, likely reflecting valuation, execution, or project-conversion risk.
- Comparison
- The TAM estimate is larger than that of most electrical OEMs, but the rating is less positive than ETN and HUBB.
- Risks
- Pipeline conversion rates, construction cycles, labor bottlenecks, and permitting delays.
- META PLATFORMS INC / US.METAHyperscaler and AI data-center demand side
- Strengths
- Meta contributed about 1.1GW to the monthly increase in hyperscaler under-construction capacity this month, and Bernstein assigns Outperform with an $850 target price.
- Weaknesses
- Large-scale data center capex may pressure free cash flow or raise market expectations for returns.
- Comparison
- The report says Amazon, Meta, Google, and Microsoft each have roughly 5GW or more of active capacity, with Amazon leading at about 9GW.
- Risks
- AI investment returns below expectations, constrained power access, or delays due to permitting or NIMBY.
- AmazonHyperscaler and major contributor to the project pipeline
- Strengths
- Contributed the most to monthly changes in hyperscaler project pipeline and has about 9GW of active capacity.
- Weaknesses
- Continued expansion requires high capex and power resources.
- Comparison
- Bernstein rates Amazon Outperform with a $315 target price; active capacity leads Meta, Google, and Microsoft.
- Risks
- Slower cloud demand, power bottlenecks, or changes in lease vs build-own strategy.
- NVDA / AVGO / AMDAI semiconductor and hardware-chain beneficiaries
- Strengths
- Data center opportunity is still in an early stage, with AI demand supporting growth in GPUs, CPUs, ASICs, and related hardware.
- Weaknesses
- Expectations are high, and share prices are sensitive to delivery of growth.
- Comparison
- The report rates NVDA, AVGO, and AMD Outperform, and INTC Market-Perform.
- Risks
- Volatility in the AI capex cycle, customer concentration, supply constraints, or intensifying competition.
Key data
- Data Center Project Pipeline295GWIn April 2026, up about 14GW month over month or 5%, and roughly 3x year over year.
- Under-Construction Capacity59GWUp 6.5GW month over month; colocation providers, developers, and hyperscalers contributed about 95% of the new under-construction capacity.
- Stranded Capacity32GWAbout 11% of the total project pipeline, above the roughly 7%-9% range seen last summer.
- BTM Project Pipeline115GWUp 3.3GW month over month and 28GW year to date, accounting for about 39% of the total project pipeline.
- BTM Under-Construction Capacity13GWUp 3GW month over month, accounting for about 22% of under-construction capacity.
- Texas Incremental Pipeline Contribution6GWAbout 46% of this month's new pipeline additions, remaining the main source of capacity growth.
- Electrical OEM TAM EstimatePWR $4T; VRT $914B; Schneider $787B; ETN $690B; ABB $590B; LGN $299BEstimated based on the current project pipeline and company-disclosed per-MW opportunity.
- Hyperscaler Active Capacityabout 25GWAmazon leads with about 9GW, while Meta, Google, and Microsoft each have about 5GW.
Impact & implications
The report is broadly positive for electrical equipment, engineering and construction, on-site power generation, data center operators, and the AI hardware chain. Power bottlenecks and higher BTM penetration mean projects require not only computing equipment but also more electrical distribution, engines, engineering, and construction resources. At the same time, rising permitting issues, NIMBY, and stranded capacity remind investors that pipeline capacity does not equal certain commissioning; project conversion rates and access to power will be key differentiating factors.
Risks
- Local opposition and NIMBY may continue to push stranded capacity higher, preventing the pipeline from fully converting into actual commissioning.
- Grid interconnection, transmission, permitting, and labor bottlenecks may extend construction cycles.
- If BTM power solutions are constrained by fuel, emissions, regulation, or cost, related equipment demand may fall short of expectations.
- If AI and cloud capex slows, demand across the data center, electrical equipment, and semiconductor chains will be affected.
- The report covers multiple companies, and some disclosures indicate Bernstein or affiliated parties have investment banking business, holdings, or compensation relationships with certain companies; readers should consult the conflict-of-interest disclosures.
What to watch
- Whether the project pipeline remains above 295GW in subsequent months, and whether new capacity remains concentrated in Texas, ERCOT, and PJM.
- The pace at which the 59GW of under-construction capacity converts into active capacity, and whether the 12-month construction workload can be absorbed as planned.
- Whether stranded capacity remains above 11%, and whether NIMBY and permitting factors widen further.
- Whether the BTM pipeline share remains around 39%, and how the BTM dependence of neoclouds, developers, and hyperscalers changes.
- Order, backlog, and data-center-related revenue guidance from ETN, HUBB, CAT, CMI, PWR, and similar companies.
- Data center capex and leasing-capacity strategies of large customers such as Meta, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Oracle.