Data center equipment value per megawatt for AI remains high, with liquid cooling and 800VDC reshaping supplier opportunities
AI summary card
Data center equipment value per megawatt for AI remains high, with liquid cooling and 800VDC reshaping supplier opportunities
Bernstein estimates that the data center cooling equipment opportunity is about $1.1-1.5M/MW for air cooling and $1.3-1.8M/MW for liquid cooling, while the power equipment opportunity is about $1.8-2.5M/MW for traditional AC, $1.7-2.5M/MW for Hybrid 800VDC, and $1.4-2.1M/MW for Native 800VDC.
- Rising AI rack power density is driving cooling architectures to migrate from air cooling to direct liquid cooling, with value shifting away from CRAH and RDHx toward CDU, cold plates, manifolds, and liquid distribution infrastructure.
- Power architectures are expected to transition gradually from traditional AC to Hybrid 800VDC, and over the longer term may move toward Native 800VDC; the key change is a reshaping of the equipment mix, not the disappearance of demand for power infrastructure.
- The report does not yet form a clear cost view on bulk rectifiers and solid-state transformers, as the related technologies are still evolving and credible cost estimates are dispersed.
- At the company level, Bernstein assigns Outperform to Vertiv, nVent, Trane Technologies, Johnson Controls, Schneider Electric, Siemens, Legrand, and Eaton, and Market-Perform to Carrier and ABB.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report examines the equipment content value per megawatt in AI data centers across the two infrastructure chains of cooling and power supply, and breaks down the key components, cost ranges, and supplier participation opportunities under different architectures. The core backdrop is the expansion of AI infrastructure and rising rack density, which makes it important for investors to understand which suppliers can capture spending on cooling, electrical distribution, and backup power in next-generation data center construction.
Core views
On the cooling side, traditional air cooling relies on chillers, CRAH, RDHx, and outdoor heat rejection equipment, while liquid cooling uses cold plates, manifolds, and CDU to remove heat closer to the chip, improving heat dissipation efficiency for high-density AI workloads. The report estimates that total cooling content value rises from about $1.1-1.5M/MW for air cooling to about $1.3-1.8M/MW for liquid cooling. On the power side, traditional AC architectures remain reliable, but as AI clusters become larger and more power-intensive, operators are evaluating higher-voltage DC architectures to reduce conversion losses; Hybrid 800VDC is a more realistic near-term path, while Native 800VDC is more of a long-term end state. Despite changes in the equipment mix, power content value remains high: about $1.8-2.5M/MW for traditional AC, about $1.7-2.5M/MW for Hybrid 800VDC, and about $1.4-2.1M/MW for Native 800VDC.
Analysis framework
The report breaks down data center infrastructure to the component level by cooling architecture and power architecture, combines expert interviews, company websites, product catalogs, and supplier product mapping, estimates the $M/MW content value of each component under different architectures, and further maps the potential content opportunities to companies such as Vertiv, nVent, Trane Technologies, Carrier, Johnson Controls, Eaton, Forgent Power Solutions, Schneider Electric, and Legrand.
Methodology notes
$M/MW
Measures the equipment spending corresponding to each megawatt of data center load to evaluate cooling and power component opportunities, making it easier to compare potential revenue exposure across architectures and suppliers.
From air cooling to liquid cooling
Compares demand changes between air cooling and direct liquid cooling across components such as chillers, CRAH, RDHx, CDU, cold plates, and manifolds to determine the direction of value transfer.
Traditional AC, Hybrid 800VDC, Native 800VDC
Compares equipment demand in AC and 800VDC chains for switchgear, transformers, UPS, PDU, busway, BBU, BESS, VRM, rectifiers, and SST.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- VertivOne of the core beneficiaries of data center cooling and power equipment, rated Outperform with a target price of $416.
- Strengths
- It has broad coverage in the liquid cooling and traditional AC power content opportunity tables; the report estimates its liquid cooling opportunity at about $1.4-1.8M/MW and its traditional AC power opportunity at about $2.0-2.7M/MW.
- Weaknesses
- The valuation table shows a relatively high 2026E adjusted P/E, and investment returns depend on AI data center demand and realization of supplier content capture.
- Comparison
- Compared with some companies with only cooling or electrical exposure, Vertiv has strong mapping on both the cooling and power infrastructure sides.
- Risks
- The pace of architecture switching, customer procurement assumptions, component cost estimates, and changes in the competitive landscape may affect realization of content value.
- nVentA beneficiary related to data center electrical distribution, rated Outperform with a target price of $220.
- Strengths
- It has content opportunities in some cooling components and traditional AC power equipment; the traditional AC power opportunity table estimates about $0.7-1.0M/MW.
- Weaknesses
- Compared with Vertiv, its cooling and power coverage is narrower.
- Comparison
- It is more geared toward electrical connection, distribution, and partial infrastructure exposure rather than integrated full cooling and power systems.
- Risks
- If 800VDC architectures lead to a redistribution of component demand, its existing AC-related exposure may face a change in mix.
- Trane TechnologiesA beneficiary of data center cooling equipment, rated Outperform with a target price of $555.
- Strengths
- It has opportunities in cooling-related components such as chillers, CRAH, and CDU; the liquid cooling content opportunity table estimates about $0.9-1.2M/MW.
- Weaknesses
- It has less mapping to power equipment, with the main benefit concentrated on the cooling side.
- Comparison
- Similar to Carrier and Johnson Controls, its opportunities come more from cooling equipment than from power architecture upgrades.
- Risks
- Competition in liquid cooling components, data center-grade product capabilities, and customer adoption speed will affect share.
- CarrierA company related to data center cooling, rated Market-Perform with a target price of $75.
- Strengths
- It has potential content opportunities in cooling components such as chillers, CRAH, and CDU, with liquid cooling opportunity of about $0.9-1.2M/MW.
- Weaknesses
- The report rating is Market-Perform, and the table indicates limitations as to whether some products are data center-grade.
- Comparison
- Like Trane and Johnson Controls, it has cooling-side exposure, but its investment rating is less positive than the Outperform names.
- Risks
- Data center-grade product fit, competition, and relatively limited valuation attractiveness.
- Johnson ControlsA beneficiary of data center cooling equipment, rated Outperform with a target price of $173.
- Strengths
- It has opportunities in cooling components such as chillers, CRAH, and CDU, with liquid cooling content opportunity of about $0.9-1.2M/MW.
- Weaknesses
- Direct mapping on the power side is limited.
- Comparison
- Similar to Trane and Carrier in being more cooling-side oriented, but with a more positive rating.
- Risks
- Competition in cooling equipment, the pace of liquid cooling adoption, and project delivery capabilities may affect revenue conversion.
- EatonA beneficiary of data center power equipment, rated Outperform with a target price of $534.
- Strengths
- It has extensive mapping in traditional AC power equipment such as MV switchgear, transformers, LV switchgear, ATS, UPS, PDU, and DCIM, with traditional AC power opportunity of about $1.4-2.0M/MW.
- Weaknesses
- Exposure on the cooling side is relatively limited.
- Comparison
- Compared with cooling equipment companies, Eaton is more directly exposed to data center power distribution and electrical architecture upgrades.
- Risks
- Migration to 800VDC may change the demand structure for traditional AC components such as UPS and PDU.
- Schneider ElectricA European electrical equipment beneficiary, rated Outperform with a target price of €310.
- Strengths
- It has participation opportunities across cooling, power supply, and DCIM software; the liquid cooling opportunity table estimates about $1.4-1.8M/MW, and the traditional AC power opportunity is about $1.4-2.0M/MW.
- Weaknesses
- Actual capture of supply share and product mix under different architectures still requires support from modeling assumptions.
- Comparison
- Like Vertiv, it has broad data center infrastructure mapping, but with different regional exposure and product mix.
- Risks
- Project timing, European industrial valuation, architecture migration, and supply chain competition.
- LegrandA European electrical equipment beneficiary, rated Outperform with a target price of €170.
- Strengths
- It has content opportunities in power distribution-related components, with traditional AC power opportunity of about $1.3-1.8M/MW.
- Weaknesses
- Its estimated liquid cooling content opportunity is low in the table, about $0.0-0.1M/MW.
- Comparison
- Compared with Schneider Electric, Legrand has weaker mapping on the cooling side and is more exposed to power distribution.
- Risks
- If changes in data center architecture lead to value migration away from traditional distribution components, its product adaptation in DC architectures will need to be monitored.
- ABBA European electrical equipment company, rated Market-Perform with a target price of CHF70.
- Strengths
- It is related to electrical equipment and automation and may benefit from demand for data center power infrastructure.
- Weaknesses
- The report rating is Market-Perform, and there is limited company-level evidence of content opportunity in the summary materials.
- Comparison
- Its rating is less positive than Schneider Electric, Siemens, and Legrand.
- Risks
- There is noise in target price and table extraction, so the original table should be reviewed to confirm the specific price and relative performance data.
Key data
- Air-cooled cooling content value$1.1-1.5M/MWIncludes chillers, CRAH, RDHx, DCIM, accessories, and redundancy.
- Liquid-cooled cooling content value$1.3-1.8M/MWAdds or strengthens liquid cooling components such as CDU, cold plates, and manifolds.
- Traditional AC power content value$1.8-2.5M/MWIncludes MV switchgear, transformers, LV switchgear, ATS, UPS, PDU, diesel generators, and DCIM.
- Hybrid 800VDC power content value$1.7-2.5M/MW, excluding bulk rectifierIntroduces rectifiers, busway, BBU, BESS, and VRM, but the report does not yet provide a credible cost estimate for rectifiers.
- Native 800VDC power content value$1.4-2.1M/MW, excluding solid-state transformerSST is still in the early commercialization stage, and the report does not yet provide a credible cost estimate.
- Vertiv content opportunity under liquid cooling architectureabout $1.4-1.8M/MWThe table shows that it has participation opportunities across multiple cooling components.
- Vertiv power content opportunity under traditional AC architectureabout $2.0-2.7M/MWThe table shows that it covers multiple power components, including switchgear, UPS, PDU, diesel generators, and DCIM.
Impact & implications
The investment implication is that AI data center capital spending benefits not only GPUs and servers, but also suppliers of cooling, power distribution, backup power, control software, and electrical systems. Higher liquid cooling penetration may create incremental opportunities for suppliers of CDU, cold plates, and manifolds; the transition to 800VDC may alter the value distribution across equipment such as UPS, PDU, busway, BESS, VRM, rectifiers, and SST. For investors, the key is not simply to judge whether total spending is rising, but to identify each company's actual participation in specific architectures and components.
Risks
- Bulk rectifiers and solid-state transformers are still in the technology evolution and early commercialization stage, with dispersed cost estimates that could change the economics of 800VDC architectures.
- Adoption of liquid cooling and 800VDC may be slower than expected, delaying realization of equipment content value.
- Content value per megawatt depends on component utilization, redundancy assumptions, supplier participation, and cost assumptions; changes in model parameters will affect company opportunity estimates.
- Migration from traditional AC to Hybrid 800VDC or Native 800VDC may compress opportunities for some traditional UPS, PDU, and low-voltage AC distribution equipment.
- There is noise in OCR extraction for some prices, dates, and table fields; original report tables should be checked for precise valuation work.
What to watch
- The procurement pace of direct liquid cooling by large cloud vendors and AI data center operators.
- Commercialization progress of Hybrid 800VDC sidecar solutions, bulk rectifiers, BBU, BESS, and busway.
- The maturity of solid-state transformers and related protection equipment required for Native 800VDC.
- Orders and product disclosures from Vertiv, Schneider Electric, Eaton, Trane, Johnson Controls, Carrier, nVent, and Legrand in new data center projects.
- Whether equipment content value per megawatt is revised up or down due to supply chain pricing, redundancy requirements, and architecture standardization.