U.S. robotics import restrictions escalate; short-term impact is limited but long-term risk of ecosystem bifurcation rises

Overview

On July 28, 2026, the U.S. FCC announced that foreign-produced advanced robotics equipment would be added to the Covered List, covering equipment such as autonomous mobile robots, humanoid robots, and quadruped robots with capabilities including mobility, obstacle avoidance, navigation, remote response to sensor data, environmental perception, connectivity, and autonomous control. New products that cannot obtain FCC authorization will generally be unable to be imported, marketed, or sold in the United States; products that have already received authorization are not affected for now. The report judges that Chinese humanoid robots' current U.S. business mainly comes from research institutions and internal R&D at technology companies, so the near-term earnings impact is limited, but it will become more difficult for future products to enter the U.S. market, participate in the U.S. embodied intelligence ecosystem, and access high-value demand. For autonomous mobile robots, vacuuming robots, and lawn-mowing robots that already have relatively large businesses in the U.S., the near-term impact is comparatively more visible and may accelerate localized production in the United States. Over the long term, regulatory restrictions may further bifurcate China-U.S. robotics product roadmaps, supply chains, and model-training ecosystems.

Core views

The report's core conclusions include: first, the new U.S. rules can provide protection for domestic robotics manufacturers, but may also increase R&D costs and delay technology adoption because U.S. research institutions widely use low-cost Chinese robots. Second, Chinese humanoid robot companies currently have a low share of revenue from the U.S., and some existing Unitree models have already obtained FCC authorization, so the near-term direct impact is limited. Third, the competitiveness of new products from autonomous mobile robot and consumer robot companies may be impaired, and localized production will become an important response. Fourth, China still has abundant application scenarios, strong willingness to adopt, a complete industrial chain, manufacturing experience, cost advantages, and continuous policy support, providing a foundation to compete for global demand. Fifth, the current restrictions may only be the beginning of an escalation in China-U.S. competition in embodied intelligence, with future risks of expansion to existing products, core components, robotics chips, and development software.

Analysis framework

The report uses a combination of regulatory rule analysis, company exposure checks, segmented supply-chain comparisons, mature-industry analogies, and individual-stock valuation. It first defines the products covered by the new FCC rules, authorization requirements, and local value ratios; then distinguishes the commercialization stages and U.S. revenue exposure of humanoid and quadruped robots, autonomous mobile robots, and consumer robots; subsequently references regulatory and localization experience in drones, electric vehicles, and construction machinery to infer long-term paths; and finally evaluates the value and risks of key covered companies through P/E, P/S, weighted peer-company valuation, and DCF.

Methodology notes

• Policy and scenario analysisFCC regulatory impact analysis

  Assess impact based on product authorization status, U.S. business exposure, and potential regulatory expansion scenarios.

  Distinguish between products that have already obtained FCC authorization and future new products, and separately assess scenarios such as import and sales restrictions, local assembly requirements, retroactive restrictions on existing products, and component controls.

• Industry comparisonMature-industry analogy method

  Draw on protectionism and localization experience in the drone, electric vehicle, and construction machinery industries.

  Use cases such as tariffs, the Buy America Act, and prior regulatory escalation to infer potential responses by robotics companies, including building factories in the U.S., supply chain localization, and overseas joint ventures.

• Relative valuationP/E and P/S comparable valuation

  Select earnings or revenue multiples based on different business maturity levels and calibrate using comparable-company valuations.

  Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co. Ltd.'s core business uses 2026E P/E, and its humanoid robot business uses P/S; Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd. uses weighted P/S from humanoid robot, autonomous driving, logistics, and warehouse automation comparable companies.

• Absolute valuationDiscounted cash flow method

  Use DCF valuation for robotics component businesses with long-term growth potential but limited near-term profit contribution.

  The relevant valuations use expected cash flows from 2025 to 2050, an 11% weighted average cost of capital, and a 4% perpetual growth rate, and are combined with core business valuations.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems（688017.SS）

  A preferred core robotics component name in the report

  Strengths

  Harmonic reducers benefit from industrial robot demand, humanoid robot adoption, supply chain penetration, and improved capacity utilization.

  Weaknesses

  Performance is relatively sensitive to the speed of humanoid robot volume ramp-up, the adoption ratio of harmonic reducers, and customer expansion.

  Comparison

  Compared with OEMs, component suppliers are more likely to participate in the U.S. OEM supply chain through overseas joint ventures and capacity deployment.

  Risks

  Humanoid robot volume ramp-up slower than expected, market share losses, failure to enter the supply chains of leading U.S. integrators, and intensified price competition.

• Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd（601100.SS）

  A preferred hydraulic and robotics component name in the report

  Strengths

  The traditional hydraulic business provides a foundation, while the company also has potential to enter overseas brand supply chains and the humanoid robot component market.

  Weaknesses

  It is still affected by demand for Chinese excavators, pumps and valves, and the pace of expansion in non-excavator components.

  Comparison

  Compared with pure robotics companies, its business foundation is more mature, but the contribution of the robotics business to valuation uplift depends on penetration rates.

  Risks

  Significant decline in domestic construction machinery demand, failure to expand share in non-excavator components, and humanoid robot penetration slower than expected.

• Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co. Ltd.（002472.SZ）

  A preferred transmission and robotics reducer name in the report

  Strengths

  The core business continues to grow, and the company has incremental opportunities in dual-motor, three-motor, coaxial gearboxes, and humanoid robot reducers.

  Weaknesses

  The application cycle for the humanoid robot business is relatively long, and there is uncertainty around overseas demand and delivery of new businesses.

  Comparison

  Valuation considers both the mature core business and the humanoid robot business with high growth potential.

  Risks

  Market share improvement slower than expected, weak overseas market demand, and intensified domestic competition in gears and actuators.

• Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd.（2590.HK）

  An autonomous mobile robot company with negative exposure to U.S. restrictions

  Strengths

  It has a foundation in logistics and warehouse automation and plans to establish local U.S. capacity to respond to regulatory changes.

  Weaknesses

  Autonomous mobile robots already have actual business in the U.S., so the near-term impact of restrictions on new product authorization is greater than for humanoid robot companies.

  Comparison

  Compared with humanoid robot companies mainly selling to research users, it has greater U.S. commercialization exposure, but existing authorized products are not affected for now.

  Risks

  Rising U.S. localization costs, order growth dragged down by geopolitics, embodied intelligence investment higher than expected, and weakening sentiment in the robotics market.

Key data

• FCC announcement dateJuly 28, 2026Foreign-produced advanced robotics equipment was added to the Covered List.
• Equipment weight thresholdMore than 4.4 poundsOne of the conditions under the new rules for defining advanced robotics equipment.
• U.S. local value ratioCurrently 65%, rising to 75% in 2029Robots that want to avoid being defined as foreign-produced need to be assembled in the U.S. and meet the corresponding local value ratio.
• Existing authorized productsUnitree G1, H2, R1, Go2, B2, and A2According to Unitree's prospectus materials, the above FCC-authorized models are not affected by the new rules for now.
• Unitree IPO catalystBookbuilding on August 5, 2026; subscription on August 10The listing date has not yet been determined.
• Industry event catalystsWorld Robot Conference from August 19 to 23; World Humanoid Robot Games from August 22 to 26Both events will be held in Beijing.
• Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd. base valuation2026E P/S of 5.6xThe valuation framework references humanoid robot and autonomous driving comparable companies and logistics and warehouse automation comparable companies, each with a 50% weight.
• Robotics component DCF parametersWeighted average cost of capital 11%, perpetual growth rate 4%Used for long-term cash-flow valuations related to Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd and Leader Harmonious Drive Systems.
• Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd target priceRmb133The core business uses 35x 2026E P/E, and the robotics component business uses DCF.
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems base valueRmb631/shareDCF valuation based on expected cash flows from 2025 to 2050.

Impact & implications

The direct beneficiaries of the new rules may be U.S. robotics manufacturers, which gain stronger protection as import competition declines; however, U.S. robotics R&D institutions rely heavily on lower-priced and sufficiently available Chinese equipment, and broader restrictions may also push up R&D costs and slow robotics adoption. Chinese humanoid robot OEMs face limited short-term revenue impact, but future difficulty in entering the high-value U.S. market and participating in local model-training ecosystems will increase. Autonomous mobile robot and consumer robot companies that already have commercial scale in the U.S. face more direct new-product pressure, and establishing local U.S. production capacity may become necessary. For Chinese core component companies, the U.S. OEM supply chain still has expansion value, and overseas capacity and joint-venture arrangements can help reduce regulatory risk, but bifurcation of the China-U.S. ecosystems may increase uncertainty in customer certification, capital expenditure, and technology roadmaps.

Risks

• The U.S. expands restrictions to robotics products that have already obtained FCC authorization.
• The regulatory scope expands to core robotics components or manufacturing partnerships involving China-made products.
• The U.S. expands export controls on robotics training chips, edge computing chips, simulation tools, and development software.
• Other countries emulate the U.S. and adopt restrictive measures to protect their domestic robotics industries.
• China-U.S. robotics model training, supply chains, and product roadmaps bifurcate at an accelerated pace.
• Building localized U.S. production capacity pushes up capital expenditure, unit costs, and execution risks.
• Humanoid robot commercialization, production growth, and core component penetration are slower than expected.
• Competition in China's robotics industry intensifies, bringing pressure on prices and margins.

What to watch

• Whether the FCC releases more detailed product scope, exemption, and authorization enforcement rules.
• Whether restrictions are applied retroactively to authorized robots or extended to specific components and online sales platforms.
• Progress by Chinese robotics companies in building factories, forming joint ventures, and localizing supply chains in the U.S.
• Changes in U.S. export controls on robotics chips, simulation software, and development tools.
• Unitree IPO progress and market feedback.
• New products, orders, and mass-production progress showcased at the World Robot Conference and the World Humanoid Robot Games.
• Progress by Leader Harmonious Drive Systems, Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd, and Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co. Ltd. in entering overseas OEM supply chains.
• Beijing Geekplus Technology Co., Ltd.'s local U.S. capacity buildout and new product authorization status.