Anta Sports Q1 beats expectations, but full-year guidance unchanged and margin pressure remains

Overview

This report is Bernstein's Quick Take on Anta Sports following its 2025 earnings call and its operating performance in Q1 2026. The key conclusion is that the company's multi-brand portfolio delivered a strong Q1, with ANTA, FILA, DESCENTE, KOLON, and MAIA ACTIVE all showing solid growth, but management did not raise full-year guidance, reflecting a cautious view on the sustainability of consumption recovery, external shocks, and cost pressure.

Core views

The report believes the Q1 beat was mainly driven by the Lunar New Year timing shift, earlier spring product demand, product readiness, event exposure, and retail execution, and does not fully represent a structural acceleration. Improved execution at FILA and the ANTA brand is encouraging, while DESCENTE and KOLON continue to deliver high-quality, high-discount growth, and MAIA ACTIVE remains in the incubation stage. However, if revenue beats expectations, management may continue to increase investment in brands, sports resources, and retail, meaning operating leverage may not fully flow through to profits.

Analysis framework

The report combines management earnings-call Q&A, Q1 brand sell-through, discounts, inventory, channel upgrades, full-year guidance, and valuation multiples to reach its conclusion, and uses an NTM P/E target-multiple method to estimate fair value. The analysis focus is not on one quarter's growth alone, but on whether the strong quarter is sustainable, whether it can lead to earnings revisions, and whether the current share price still offers sufficient risk compensation.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsNTM+1 P/E multiple valuation

  target P/E ratio

  The report uses 13x NTM+1 P/E to estimate Anta's target price of HKD89, and selects the target multiple based on profit growth and ROIC.

• Operating qualityBrand segment operating metrics

  joint assessment of sell-through, discounting, and inventory

  The report judges growth quality by combining each brand's Q1 sell-through growth, online and offline discounts, and inventory-to-sales ratio, rather than looking only at revenue growth.

• Scenario analysisGuidance prudence analysis

  whether full-year guidance should be raised after a strong Q1

  Management's decision to keep full-year guidance unchanged is interpreted as a cautious response to the Lunar New Year timing shift, the March-April slowdown, and external uncertainty, while preserving the option to raise guidance at the interim results.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• 2020.HK

  Covered name

  Strengths

  Improved execution across the multi-brand portfolio, with Q1 growth across brands generally stronger than full-year guidance and healthy inventory and discount levels overall.

  Weaknesses

  Management is unwilling to raise full-year guidance, indicating that the sustainability of one-quarter momentum is still unconfirmed; near-term margin expansion is constrained by reinvestment and cost pressure.

  Comparison

  Compared with weaker peers, Anta gained share through product, channel, and execution, but overall market growth is insufficient, which may make further share gains harder.

  Risks

  Unstable consumption recovery, rising raw material and energy costs, intensifying competition, and volatility in overseas business.

• FILA

  Core brand segment

  Strengths

  Low double-digit growth, the One FILA strategic reset is starting to work, discounts and inventory have improved, and flagship stores and Back to Milan are enhancing brand image.

  Weaknesses

  Brand upgrade investments and fashion-week, boutique-store, and other spending may not translate into margin expansion in the near term.

  Comparison

  Clearly stronger than the full-year mid-single-digit guidance, though partly helped by the Lunar New Year timing shift and event exposure.

  Risks

  If the March-April slowdown persists, both full-year growth and the roughly 25% operating margin guidance will face pressure.

• ANTA brand

  Main brand segment

  Strengths

  Q1 high-single-digit growth, online growth in the mid-teens, Lighthouse store renovations are materially improving store productivity, and overseas expansion is being advanced.

  Weaknesses

  Functional footwear is still being optimized, and store renovations will bring short-term closures, construction, and rental pressure.

  Comparison

  Recovered from a slight Q4 decline to positive growth, indicating improved execution.

  Risks

  Q2 normalization after demand pull-forward around the Lunar New Year, uneven recovery in franchised channels, and a long payoff cycle for overseas expansion.

• DESCENTE and KOLON

  Premium and outdoor growth brands

  Strengths

  DESCENTE grew more than 30%, KOLON about 50%, with discounts above 9.0x and healthy inventory.

  Weaknesses

  Growth relies on event sponsorships, flagship stores, and marketing investment, which may push up capex and expense ratios.

  Comparison

  Well above the group's full-year growth guidance of 20%+, making them a growth highlight for the group.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition in premium outdoor apparel and uncertain returns on brand activity spending.

• MAIA ACTIVE

  Incubation brand

  Strengths

  Q1 growth was about 30-35%, with average monthly sales at core mall flagship stores close to RMB 1M and the top five product IPs contributing about 30% of sales.

  Weaknesses

  Still in the incubation and capability-building stage, with limited near-term scale and profit contribution.

  Comparison

  Compared with mature brands, it offers higher growth but lower certainty.

  Risks

  New product scale-up, brand awareness, and store expansion pace falling short of expectations.

Key data

• RatingMarket-PerformBernstein maintained its rating on Anta Sports.
• Target priceHKD89Based on 13x NTM+1 P/E.
• FILA Q1 growthlow double digitsAbove the full-year mid-single-digit sell-through growth guidance.
• ANTA brand Q1 growthhigh single digitsReversed the slight decline in Q4 2025, with online growth in the mid-teens.
• DESCENTE Q1 growth>30% YoYAbove the full-year growth guidance of 20%+, with about 5 months of inventory.
• KOLON Q1 growthabout 50% YoYContinued strong growth from a 2025 scale of about RMB 6B, with inventory below 4 months.
• MAIA ACTIVE Q1 growthabout 30-35% YoYStill in the incubation and capability-building stage.
• FILA operating margin guidanceabout 25%If revenue beats expectations, management may reinvest in brand, sports, and retail.
• ANTA Lighthouse storesabout 300 in 2025, with plans to add about 200 in 2026 and reach around 500, plus about 100 light-format versionsRenovations will temporarily affect sales and costs, but the first-month store productivity after renovation typically improves by 25% or more.
• Overseas targetmedium-term overseas revenue to account for 15% of ANTA brand revenueSoutheast Asia retail points are planned to increase from 500 to 1,000 within three years, alongside expansion into India and North America.

Impact & implications

From an investment perspective, the strong Q1 increases confidence in Anta's execution and multi-brand portfolio, but it is not enough to trigger a more positive rating. If H1 strength continues, management may reconsider guidance at the interim results; if Q2 normalizes after the Lunar New Year pull-forward, the market may refocus on growth quality and margin pressure. At this stage, it is more appropriate to watch for sustainability rather than chase a single-quarter beat.

Risks

• The Lunar New Year timing shift and weather boosted Q1 demand, which may normalize in Q2.
• Performance in March-April has already slowed from January-February levels, reaching only about 95%+ of budget.
• Geopolitical tensions could push up energy and raw material prices, compressing margins.
• Consumers are price-sensitive, making it difficult to fully pass through higher costs via price increases.
• Investment in brands, sports resources, store upgrades, and overseas expansion may dilute short-term profit leverage.
• The multi-brand strategy or overseas expansion may underperform; overseas-related businesses such as Amer Sports are affected by global economic trends.
• Changes in relationships with key contracted athletes, share gains below expectations, and intensifying industry competition.

What to watch

• Whether the strong H1 trend continues and whether management raises full-year guidance at the interim results.
• The true growth rate in Q2 and Q3 after the Lunar New Year timing effect fades.
• Whether FILA can sustain low double-digit momentum and protect its roughly 25% operating margin.
• Whether store productivity improvements after ANTA Lighthouse renovations can offset short-term closures and cost impacts.
• Whether high growth at DESCENTE and KOLON can be sustained with healthy discounts and inventory amid intensifying premium outdoor competition.
• The impact of raw material, energy price, and geopolitical risks on gross margin.
• Whether expansion in Southeast Asia, India, and North America proceeds as planned and gradually supports the medium-term overseas revenue target.