The 2026 World Humanoid Robot Games pivoted toward real-world applications and raised the autonomy threshold, with supply-chain opportunities coexisting alongside valuation risks

Overview

The report summarizes the World Humanoid Robot Games held in Beijing from August 22 to 26, 2026, focusing on how the event shifted from sports and entertainment demonstrations toward real-world application testing and on the technological progress reflected in stricter autonomous-operation rules. It also maps these observations to China's industrial automation, robot components, machine vision, and motion-control supply chains, while maintaining differentiated stock ratings.

Core views

Both the scale and structure of the event changed significantly. The 2026 World Humanoid Robot Games brought together 666 teams and 2,056 humanoid robots from 16 countries, with participation approximately four times the 2025 level; China contributed 1,975 robots and 641 teams. More importantly, real-world application events increased from 6 to 21, application scenarios expanded from 4 categories to 11, accounted for 60% of all newly added events, and rose from 23% to 41% of the event schedule. Newly added dexterous-hand events focused on fine manipulation, while applications expanded from traditional industry and logistics to retail, food service, household chores, firefighting, libraries, and office services. Six scenario-based events were held directly in real environments such as hotel rooms, firefighting facilities, and school libraries, while most of the remaining events used 1:1 scenario replicas. Goldman Sachs therefore believes that the event is evolving from a platform showcasing athletic or entertainment capabilities into a structured testing ground for practical humanoid robot capabilities. Rule changes further raised the thresholds for autonomy and reliability. Most competitions required robots to operate fully autonomously, while scenario-based events applied scoring coefficients of 1.0 and 0.5 to fully autonomous and remotely controlled operation, respectively; the time limit for running events such as the 100 meters was also shortened from 3 minutes to 1 minute. Robots therefore had to simultaneously handle perception, decision-making, task execution, motion control, endurance, thermal management, and overall system stability, rather than relying solely on remote control to complete a single action. AgiBot performed strongly in real-world application events, winning 12 gold medals in total, including 5 in service and task events and 7 in dexterous-hand events; its Genie G2 won the newly added firefighting and library scenarios, while OmniHand prevailed in dexterous-hand events. Athletic events showed that Chinese manufacturers remain highly competitive in the humanoid robot's "cerebellum-like" motion-control layer, with progress extending beyond speed alone. Directly comparable events included the 100 meters, 400 meters, 1,500 meters, 4×100-meter relay, standing long jump, and standing high jump; the 2026 100-meter obstacle race cannot be directly compared with 2025 because stairs, narrow passages, and uneven terrain were added. The winning 400-meter time improved by approximately 57% to 38.15 seconds, while winning results in jumping events more than tripled year over year. The Tiangong platform of the Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center led the athletic events; newly added events such as weightlifting also tested load-bearing operation and stability, making them more relevant to future industrial applications. Goldman Sachs believes the more important industry signal is the broad improvement in whole-body coordination, autonomous navigation, power and thermal management, and system reliability. In the medal standings, AgiBot ranked first with 18 gold, 16 silver, and 12 bronze medals, totaling 46, followed closely by the Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center with 15 gold, 12 silver, and 18 bronze medals, totaling 45. By category, AgiBot won 12 gold, 10 silver, and 8 bronze medals in real-world application events, while the Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center won 12 gold, 9 silver, and 9 bronze medals in athletic events. However, the report cautions that results also reflect each company's allocation of engineering resources, pre-event preparation, team composition, and event selection; medal counts also include company-affiliated teams, university-industry joint teams, and other teams using the company's robots. Therefore, failure to rank among the leaders does not necessarily imply weaker underlying capabilities. In terms of listed-company mapping, Inovance Technology is a domestic leader in industrial automation, with its inverters and servo products holding 25% and 33% shares of the Chinese market, respectively, in 2025, ranking first in both categories. Goldman Sachs is positive on its overseas expansion, share gains in small and large PLCs, extension into digitalization and IoT solutions, and ramp-up of new energy vehicle components; R&D efficiency, a comprehensive product portfolio, and broad end-market coverage create high customer switching costs. The stock trades at approximately its historical average valuation. Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating and a 12-month target price of Rmb92.90, based on 35 times 2027E P/E and a 9.5% cost of equity. Shuanghuan Driveline is one of China's major manufacturers of high-precision gears. Goldman Sachs expects its new energy vehicle gear revenue to grow at an 18% CAGR over 2026–2030, driven by greater per-vehicle content from the penetration of coaxial gearboxes and overseas market-share gains; intelligent transmission gear revenue is expected to grow at a 27% CAGR over the same period, with applications expanding from robotic vacuum cleaners to electric bicycles and intelligent vehicles. The company is also developing robot reducers and collaborating with more industrial and humanoid robot OEMs. The report expects total revenue and net profit to grow at CAGRs of 15% and 16%, respectively, over 2026–2030, with internal efficiency improvements likely to offset the lower margins of its Hungarian and potential Vietnamese factories. Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating and a target price of Rmb45.50, corresponding to 25 times 2027E P/E. Leader Harmonious Drive Systems is China's leading harmonic reducer manufacturer. The report is positive on application expansion across industrial robots, collaborative robots, humanoid and service robots, CNC machine tools, semiconductor equipment, medical care, and aerospace. It also believes the company's extension from standalone reducers into modules integrating motors, encoders, and sensors will help increase its value content per robot. Since 2024, the company has supplied products in volume to the China factories of at least two of the world's four major robot brands, and the contribution from overseas revenue could increase over the next several years. However, Goldman Sachs believes the current valuation already reflects substantial long-term humanoid robot growth and therefore maintains a Neutral rating; its 12-month target price of Rmb186.7 is based on 50 times 2030E P/E, discounted back to 2027 at an 11.5% cost of equity. Sanhua Intelligent Controls holds a global leading position in HVAC controls and thermal-management components, and Goldman Sachs expects its revenue and net profit to grow at CAGRs of 16% and 17%, respectively, over 2025–2030. Its HVAC business is supported by commercial HVAC share gains and sensor ramp-up, while new energy vehicle thermal management benefits from rising global electric-vehicle penetration and moderate growth in per-vehicle content. In humanoid robots, the report believes Sanhua is likely to become a high-certainty actuator assembler, but market expectations for this business are overly optimistic relative to the delayed mass-production timeline for Optimus. Goldman Sachs therefore maintains a Neutral rating on Sanhua's A-shares and a Buy rating on its H-shares; the A/H-share target prices are Rmb39.8 and HK$41.2, respectively, based on 25 times 2030E P/E and discounted back to 2027 at a 9.5% cost of equity. The core investment thesis for Luster LightTech is modest share gains in traditional machine vision, alongside product-mix and margin improvements from high-growth businesses such as energy storage, new energy, AI servers, and optical modules. Since 2025, its FZMotion motion-capture system has begun participating in humanoid robot data collection, creating a second growth driver. However, Goldman Sachs believes the valuation already reflects some business-mix improvement and the option value of humanoid robots and therefore maintains a Neutral rating. Its 12-month target price of Rmb40.1 is based on 30 times 2030E P/E, discounted back to 2027 at an 11.5% cost of equity. Best is viewed as a potential supplier of high-specification planetary roller screws for humanoid robots, while its automotive-components business continues to grow steadily. Goldman Sachs expects global shipments of high-specification humanoid robots to increase from approximately 20,000 units in 2026 to approximately 128,000 units in 2030, and expects Best's global share of the relevant planetary roller screw market to rise from 1% to 5%. Capacity supported by its precision-manufacturing experience and equipment procurement provides a foundation for customer onboarding and supply-chain penetration; its ball screws and linear guides have also been adopted by a small number of domestic machine-tool manufacturers since 2024. However, compared with Goldman Sachs' China industrial technology coverage and other humanoid robot supply-chain stocks, the report considers the risk-reward profile relatively balanced and maintains a Neutral rating. The target price is Rmb22.5, based on 32 times 2030E P/E and discounted back to 2026 at a 9.5% cost of equity. MOONS' Electric is a domestic leader in motor and drive solutions. Goldman Sachs believes its brushless coreless motors and motion-control capabilities could help the company become a core humanoid robot supplier, but remains cautious about the size and profitability of the opportunity. Reasons include the possibility that the adoption rate of coreless motors in dexterous hands may be lower than previously expected, continued changes in technology pathways, intensifying supply-chain competition, and short-term margin pressure from R&D, marketing, raw-material price increases, and early-stage investment in new businesses. Although end-market demand from factory automation, automobiles, robotics, and 3D printing supported revenue growth in 2025, with strong performance from servo systems, coreless motors, and automation systems, profitability remained under pressure. Management is pursuing cost reductions, supply-chain optimization, and expense controls, but the report believes near-term margin upside is limited and therefore maintains a Sell rating. The 12-month target price of Rmb35.5 is based on an unchanged 37 times 2030E P/E, discounted back to 2027 at a 9.5% cost of equity.

Analysis framework

The report first compares the scale, event structure, realism of scenarios, and rule changes between the 2025 and 2026 events. It then uses scoring coefficients, time limits, comparable athletic results, and medal distribution to assess progress in autonomy, motion control, and overall robot reliability. It subsequently maps these industry signals to each covered company's product positioning, customer expansion, revenue growth, margins, and competitive advantages, and derives 12-month target prices using forward P/E multiples discounted at the cost of equity, while also listing company-specific upside and downside risks.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodologyPE/PEG valuation

  Forward P/E target valuation

  The report selects 2027E or 2030E P/E multiples for each covered company and combines forward earnings with target multiples to determine target valuations.

• Valuation methodology

  Discounting forward valuation at the cost of equity

  For companies valued using 2030 earnings benchmarks, the report uses a 9.5% or 11.5% cost of equity to discount forward valuations back to 2026 or 2027 before deriving 12-month target prices.

• Industry/value-chain analysis frameworkUpstream-midstream-downstream value-chain transmission

  Mapping competition capabilities to component supply-chain opportunities

  Based on progress in autonomous operation, dexterous hands, motion control, and load-bearing stability at the overall robot level, the report analyzes potential demand for actuators, reducers, gears, screws, motors, machine vision, and motion capture.

• Competition and strategy frameworkMoat / competitive advantage

  Assessment of product, R&D, customer, and manufacturing capabilities

  The report assesses each company's long-term competitiveness based on R&D efficiency, product portfolio, customer switching costs, precision-manufacturing experience, overseas customer onboarding, and market position.

• (Method outside vocabulary)

  Cross-event comparable benchmark analysis

  The report compares only 2025 and 2026 events with similar rules and course conditions, and explicitly excludes the 100-meter obstacle race, which is no longer directly comparable after the addition of stairs, narrow passages, and uneven terrain.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Inovance Technology (300124.SZ)

  A supplier of industrial automation, motion control, digitalization, and new energy vehicle components; Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating.

  Strengths

  Leading domestic shares in inverters and servos, high R&D efficiency, a broad product portfolio and end-market coverage, and high customer switching costs.

  Weaknesses

  Growth still depends on overseas expansion, PLC share gains, and the ramp-up of new energy vehicle components.

  Comparison

  The valuation is approximately at its historical average, and the report considers its long-term growth and return profile relatively resilient.

  Risks

  Slower-than-expected industrial automation share gains, margin improvement, or ramp-up of new energy vehicle components, as well as a slowdown in manufacturing capital expenditure and automation demand.

• Shuanghuan Driveline (002472.SZ)

  A supplier of high-precision gears, intelligent transmissions, and robot reducers; Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating.

  Strengths

  Possesses high-precision gear manufacturing capabilities, with rapid growth in new energy vehicle and intelligent transmission businesses and resilient operating efficiency and margins.

  Weaknesses

  Overseas factories have lower margins, while robot reducers remain at the R&D and customer-collaboration stage.

  Comparison

  The report believes its margins have continued to exceed expectations and its risk-reward profile is superior to that of some covered companies.

  Risks

  New energy vehicle market share, new energy revenue, or industrial robot gear revenue falling below expectations.

• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017.SS)

  A supplier of harmonic reducers and integrated robot modules; Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating.

  Strengths

  China's leading harmonic reducer manufacturer, with expanding applications and volume supplies to the China factories of at least two major international robot brands.

  Weaknesses

  Current revenue still awaits humanoid robot volume growth, while the valuation already reflects substantial long-term growth.

  Comparison

  Its long-term industry positioning is positive, but the current valuation makes the risk-reward profile more balanced.

  Risks

  Weaker-than-expected demand for industrial and collaborative robots, or intensifying competition from overseas and domestic brands.

• Sanhua Intelligent Controls A (002050.SZ)

  A supplier of HVAC controls, automotive thermal management, and humanoid robot actuators; Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating.

  Strengths

  Its core businesses hold globally leading positions, and it may become an important assembler of humanoid robot actuators.

  Weaknesses

  Market expectations for the timing of humanoid robot mass production and business contribution may be overly optimistic.

  Comparison

  Compared with the Buy rating on the H-shares, the A-shares retain a Neutral rating due to differences in risk-reward.

  Risks

  Humanoid robot revenue contribution, global new energy vehicle sales, or home-appliance sales deviating from expectations.

• Sanhua Intelligent Controls H (2050.HK)

  Shares the HVAC, automotive thermal-management, and humanoid robot actuator businesses with the A-shares; Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating.

  Strengths

  A solid market position in its core businesses, with new energy vehicle penetration and humanoid robot actuators providing long-term growth potential.

  Weaknesses

  Humanoid robot mass production may occur later than the market expects.

  Comparison

  The report rates the H-shares Buy and the A-shares Neutral.

  Risks

  Slower-than-expected humanoid robot revenue contribution, or weaker-than-expected global new energy vehicle or home-appliance sales.

• Luster LightTech

  A supplier of machine vision and motion-capture data for humanoid robots; Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating.

  Strengths

  Possesses solution capabilities for major customers and is expanding into energy storage, new energy, AI servers, optical modules, and humanoid robot data collection.

  Weaknesses

  Contributions from new businesses and motion capture still need to materialize, while the valuation already reflects some business improvement.

  Comparison

  The long-term growth outlook is positive, but the current risk-reward profile is relatively balanced.

  Risks

  New energy penetration and recovery, visual software or motion-capture development deviating from expectations, and changes in machine-vision price competition.

• Best (300580.SZ)

  An automotive-components supplier and potential supplier of planetary roller screws for humanoid robots; Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating.

  Strengths

  Possesses precision-manufacturing experience and equipment-investment support, while its ball screws and linear guides for machine tools have begun to gain adoption among domestic customers.

  Weaknesses

  Its share of the high-specification humanoid robot PRS market remains at a low base, and commercialization depends on customer onboarding and industry volume growth.

  Comparison

  Compared with Goldman Sachs' China industrial technology coverage and other humanoid robot supply-chain stocks, the report considers the risk-reward profile reasonable but not compelling.

  Risks

  Changes in the development of transmission components or the pace of new energy vehicle component capacity expansion, slowing turbocharger penetration, and lower-than-expected margins.

• MOONS' Electric (603728.SS)

  A supplier of motors, drives, and coreless motors; Goldman Sachs maintains a Sell rating.

  Strengths

  Possesses leading products and comprehensive capabilities in coreless motors and motion control.

  Weaknesses

  The size and profitability of the humanoid robot opportunity are uncertain, while margins are currently under pressure from R&D, marketing, raw materials, and investment in new businesses.

  Comparison

  The report considers its risk-reward profile inferior to other opportunities within its coverage.

  Risks

  Changes in technology pathways, lower-than-expected adoption of coreless motors in dexterous hands, intensifying competition, and uncertainty in cost-reduction execution.

Key data

• Participation scale2,056 robots, 666 teams, 16 countriesApproximately four times the 2025 level
• Chinese participation scale1,975 robots, 641 teamsChina remained the primary participant
• Real-world application eventsIncreased from 6 to 21Covered scenarios increased from 4 categories to 11
• Share of real-world application eventsIncreased from 23% to 41%Accounted for 60% of all newly added events
• Autonomous-operation scoring coefficientFully autonomous 1.0, remotely controlled 0.5Scenario-event rules raised autonomous-execution requirements
• 100-meter event time limitShortened from 3 minutes to 1 minuteImposed higher requirements for motion control, endurance, and reliability
• Winning 400-meter result38.15 secondsImproved by approximately 57% versus 2025
• AgiBot total medals18 gold, 16 silver, and 12 bronze, totaling 46Won 12 gold, 10 silver, and 8 bronze medals in real-world application events
• Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center total medals15 gold, 12 silver, and 18 bronze, totaling 45Won 12 gold, 9 silver, and 9 bronze medals in athletic events
• Inovance Technology's 2025 domestic market shareInverters 25%, servos 33%Ranked first in the Chinese market in both categories
• Shuanghuan Driveline 2026–2030 forecastsNew energy vehicle gear revenue CAGR 18%, intelligent transmission gear revenue CAGR 27%Company revenue and net profit CAGRs of 15% and 16%, respectively
• Sanhua Intelligent Controls 2025–2030 forecastsRevenue CAGR 16%, net profit CAGR 17%Includes opportunities in HVAC, automotive thermal management, and humanoid robot actuators
• Global high-specification humanoid robot shipment forecastIncrease from approximately 20,000 units to approximately 128,000 units2026E to 2030E
• Best's forecast share of the high-specification humanoid robot PRS marketIncrease from 1% to 5%2026E to 2030E

Impact & implications

Goldman Sachs believes that the increased share of real-world scenarios and fully autonomous rules indicate that industry evaluation standards are shifting from demonstrations of individual athletic capabilities toward the commercial ability to repeatedly complete multi-step tasks. Simultaneous progress in motion control, navigation, thermal management, endurance, and reliability benefits supply-chain segments such as actuators, precision transmissions, dexterous-hand motors, machine vision, and data collection; however, near-term share-price performance will still depend on the pace of mass production, customer onboarding, market share, margins, and whether current valuations already reflect long-term growth.

Risks

• Competition rankings are affected by team composition, event selection, engineering-resource investment, and preparation levels, and therefore cannot fully represent companies' underlying capabilities.
• Inovance Technology faces risks from slower-than-expected industrial automation share gains and new energy vehicle component ramp-up, weakening margins, and a slowdown in manufacturing capital expenditure.
• Shuanghuan Driveline faces risks of lower-than-expected new energy vehicle market share, new energy revenue, and industrial robot gear revenue.
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems faces risks from weaker-than-expected domestic demand for industrial and collaborative robots, as well as intensifying competition from overseas and domestic brands.
• Sanhua Intelligent Controls faces risks of humanoid robot revenue realization, global new energy vehicle sales, and home-appliance sales deviating from expectations.
• Luster LightTech faces risks from new energy business penetration and recovery, visual software and motion-capture business development deviating from expectations, and changes in machine-vision price competition.
• Best faces downside risks from slowing turbocharger penetration and lower-than-expected margins.
• MOONS' Electric faces risks from lower-than-expected coreless motor adoption, changes in technology pathways, intensifying supply-chain competition, and near-term margin pressure.

What to watch

• Whether real-world application scenarios continue to increase and whether multi-step tasks can be completed reliably in real environments.
• Further progress in fully autonomous robot operation, perception and decision-making, whole-body coordination, endurance, and thermal management.
• Mass-production timelines of major humanoid robot customers and the realization of supply-chain orders.
• The pace of Shuanghuan Driveline's overseas passenger-vehicle gear share gains and gross-margin improvement.
• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems' progress in entering core overseas robot customers and ramping up integrated modules.
• Sanhua Intelligent Controls' mass production of humanoid robot actuators, European new energy vehicle penetration, and changes in commercial HVAC market share.
• Development of Luster LightTech's motion-capture business, visual software, and high-margin new businesses.
• Best's planetary roller screw customer onboarding and its path toward increasing global market share from 1% to 5%.
• MOONS' Electric's coreless motor adoption rate in dexterous hands, competitive landscape, and effectiveness of cost and expense controls.