Storage Prices Continue to Rise Strongly in 2QCY26, with a Marked Deceleration Expected in 3Q

Overview

This report is Bernstein's global memory monthly tracker, based on June DRAM and NAND contract and spot price data published by TrendForce/DRAMeXchange, and compared with its sector model and investor expectations. The core conclusion is that storage prices remain in a strong upcycle in 2QCY26, with DRAM and NAND both supported by tight supply-demand from AI, servers, SSD, and mobile demand. However, entering 3QCY26, consumer demand pressure, customer de-specification, and the cap in long-term contract prices will make the pace of increases slow markedly.

Core views

DRAM pricing remains stronger than expected. June contract prices point to a 74% QoQ increase in traditional DRAM in 2QCY26, with all major segments—including PC, Server, Mobile, and Consumer/Specialty DRAM—jumping strongly. NAND wafer prices rose more moderately, but strong increases in UFS, mobile NAND, and SSD imply blended NAND pricing in 2QCY26 could still be up about 60% QoQ. In the short term, shortages persist, especially in server DRAM and AI-related demand. Over the medium term, deterioration in demand for PCs, phones, and consumer electronics is expected to surface, and 3QCY26 price gains are expected to narrow; prices may normalize from 2HCY27 to CY28 as LTAs take effect and incremental capacity is released.

Analysis framework

The report uses a price-tracking and weighted average price framework: it selects representative DRAM and NAND products across application areas and computes industry-average price changes using weights based on contribution to market demand. It also uses spot prices as a leading indicator for contract price direction and applies additional adjustments for critical categories not directly included in the sample, such as HBM and SSD.

Methodology notes

• Price trackingDRAM/NAND contract and spot price tracking

  Track storage cycles using TrendForce/DRAMeXchange monthly price data

  Contract prices measure the industry’s mainstream transaction levels. Spot prices are more volatile but serve as a leading indicator of supply-demand tightness and the direction of subsequent contract prices.

• Weighted average pricingIndustry ASP weighted model

  Calculate industry average price changes by weighting by different applications and products

  DRAM weighting includes Mobile, Server, PC, and Specialty DRAM applications; NAND samples include eMMC/UFS and wafers, with additional adjustment for HBM and SSD impact on blended ASP.

• Cycle assessmentSupply-demand and LTA framework

  Assess price sustainability by combining supply reallocation, AI demand, consumer demand deterioration, and long-term agreements

  The report argues LTAs can cushion price pullbacks, but upside caps in pricing and incremental supply release mean future ASP increases will depend more on transactions not covered by LTAs, ultimately pushing prices toward normalization in 2HCY27 to CY28.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Samsung Electronics

  Global memory supplier with exposure to DRAM, NAND, HBM, and more

  Strengths

  Benefits from rising DRAM and NAND prices, server demand, and HBM-related demand; Bernstein assigns an Outperform rating.

  Weaknesses

  The pace and terms of some contract negotiations and price caps may limit future ASP leverage.

  Comparison

  Compared with companies with a purer NAND profile, Samsung has a more complete memory and semiconductor mix.

  Risks

  Storage prices normalize after 2HCY27, consumer demand deterioration, and intensifying competition.

• SK hynix

  Global core DRAM/HBM supplier

  Strengths

  Benefits from server DRAM, AI demand, and strong HBM demand; Bernstein assigns an Outperform rating.

  Weaknesses

  Initial mobile DRAM quotes appear relatively softer than Samsung and Micron, suggesting somewhat lower price leverage in that segment.

  Comparison

  Has an advantage in AI/HBM and high-end DRAM exposure.

  Risks

  LTA price caps, release of incremental supply, and a slowdown in end demand.

• Micron

  U.S. memory supplier with DRAM and NAND exposure

  Strengths

  Benefits from higher DRAM prices and server demand; Bernstein assigns an Outperform rating.

  Weaknesses

  TrendForce notes that Micron’s LTA price caps may be approaching 2QCY26 levels, potentially limiting further upside.

  Comparison

  Compared with Asian peers, Micron has longer contract tenors, and pricing leverage may be constrained by LTA design.

  Risks

  Price caps, demand deterioration, and supply recovery in the industry.

• SanDisk

  NAND-related company

  Strengths

  Benefits from large upside in SSD and mobile NAND prices; Bernstein assigns an Outperform rating and sets a target price of US$3,000.

  Weaknesses

  Structural competitive pressure in NAND is higher than in DRAM.

  Comparison

  Relative to DRAM leaders, it is more sensitive to the NAND cycle and SSD pricing.

  Risks

  NAND wafer spot prices have fallen, competition from China, and smartphone demand deterioration.

• KIOXIA

  NAND supplier

  Strengths

  May benefit in the short term from higher NAND contract and SSD prices.

  Weaknesses

  Bernstein maintains an Underperform rating, and the report is structurally more cautious on NAND competition.

  Comparison

  Compared with DRAM leaders, its business is more NAND-focused and faces higher competitive and normalization risks.

  Risks

  Chinese competition, weak NAND wafer pricing, demand deterioration, and cyclical price pullback.

• DRAM supply chain

  The report's core pricing-tracking focus

  Strengths

  2QCY26 contract prices rose sharply, with strong server and AI demand and spot prices still indicating continued shortages.

  Weaknesses

  Increases in 3QCY26 are expected to slow significantly from the high 2Q pace.

  Comparison

  Compared with NAND, DRAM shortage and AI server demand support are clearer.

  Risks

  Demand deterioration in PCs, phones, and consumer electronics, plus higher supply and LTA pressure on future prices.

• NAND supply chain

  The report's second major pricing-tracking focus

  Strengths

  Strong increases in mobile NAND and SSD support roughly +60% blended NAND pricing in 2QCY26.

  Weaknesses

  Falling wafer spot prices and clearly decelerating wafer contract price gains.

  Comparison

  Compared with DRAM, NAND faces stronger Chinese competition and more visible end-market demand pressure.

  Risks

  Less procurement by module makers, smartphone demand deterioration, Chinese supply competition, and price pullback.

Key data

• 2QCY26 Traditional DRAM Contract Price IncreaseApproximately +74% QoQJune contract prices rose further versus May, indicating 2QCY26 traditional DRAM prices up 74% from 1QCY26.
• PC DRAM Spot Price+5.6% to +11.5% MoMPC DRAM spot prices rebounded further in June, with both DDR4 and DDR5 rising.
• Server DRAM Spot Price+6.1% to +26.4% MoMServer DDR5 spot prices were especially strong and remain notably above contract prices, indicating persistent supply tightness.
• PC DRAM 2QCY26 Contract Price IncreaseAbout +51% QoQJune contract prices rose modestly month-on-month. TrendForce raised 3QCY26 PC DRAM increase expectations to +15% to +20% QoQ.
• Server DRAM 2QCY26 Contract Price IncreaseAbout +60% QoQJune server DRAM contract prices rose 0% to +9.1% MoM, with 3QCY26 expected to continue rising by +13% to +18%.
• Mobile DRAM 2QCY26 Contract Price IncreaseNearly +80% QoQSamsung and Micron suggested increases above 80%, while SK hynix’s initial quotes were relatively softer; smartphone OEMs have already begun adjusting production plans and memory memory capacity.
• Specialty DRAM 2QCY26 Contract Price Increase+105% to +108% QoQTraditional product supply shortages and demand from AI, automotive, and other end-markets support prices; June rose 8.3% to +13.6% MoM.
• NAND Blended Contract Price IncreaseApproximately +60% QoQThe sample-based metric shows NAND prices up 41.5%, but after incorporating SSD increases of around 70%, blended NAND ASP is estimated to be up about 60%.
• NAND Wafer Contract Price+0.3% to +3.7% MoMPrice momentum has slowed as module makers become more cautious in procurement at elevated price levels.
• NAND Wafer Spot PriceAbout -3% to -4% MoMJune NAND wafer spot prices continued to decline and were about 20% to 25% lower than contract prices by month-end.
• Mobile NAND 2QCY26 IncreaseAbout +75% to +80% QoQThe rise is mainly supply-shortage driven, but 2HCY26 may face smartphone demand deterioration.
• Key Ratings and Price TargetsSamsung KRW 440,000; SK hynix KRW 3,300,000; Micron US$1,300; KIOXIA JPY 40,000; SanDisk US$3,000The report maintains Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, and SanDisk at Outperform and KIOXIA at Underperform.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is tilted toward storage leaders benefiting from DRAM, HBM, and server demand, especially during 2QCY26 to CY27 when supply-demand remains tight and earnings sensitivity is still strong. However, valuation and earnings durability will depend on LTA price caps, the degree of consumer demand deterioration, domestic supplier competition, and the release of new capacity after 2HCY27. NAND receives short-term support from SSD and mobile NAND price increases, but structurally the report is more cautious on NAND because Chinese competition is stronger and wafer price weakness is already apparent.

Risks

• Consumer demand deterioration could ultimately materialize, especially in PCs, smartphones, and consumer electronics.
• Storage price increases in 3QCY26 are expected to slow significantly, which may weaken expectations for upward profit revisions.
• LTA price caps may limit further ASP upside for some suppliers.
• The release of new supply and LTA implementation in 2HCY27 to CY28 may push prices toward normalization.
• NAND faces stronger competition from China, and wafer spot prices are already 20% to 25% below contract prices.
• Smartphone OEMs may cut production plans and memory configurations due to rising memory costs.

What to watch

• Whether the actual DRAM and NAND contract price increases in 3QCY26 ease as expected.
• Progress on LTA signing, price ceilings, and supply prioritization for U.S. CSPs and Chinese CSPs.
• Whether the premium of Server DDR5 spot prices over contract prices remains in place.
• Whether PCs and smartphone OEMs show clearer signs of demand deterioration or de-specification.
• Whether SSD and eSSD demand can continue to absorb NAND supply.
• The ramp of HBM4, AI server demand, and the pace of new storage capacity release.
• Competitive pressure on prices and market share from Chinese DRAM/NAND suppliers.