UBS: MINISO's 1Q26 Growth Guidance Is Solid; Rating Is Buy

Overview

This report summarizes UBS's key takeaways from its post-earnings NDR meeting with MINISO, focusing on 1Q26 sales and operating profit guidance, the China large-store model, slower overseas growth and margin improvement, as well as valuation and risks. The report maintains a 12-month target price of US$26.50 and a Buy rating.

Core views

UBS believes MINISO's near-term operating guidance is solid: 1Q26 revenue is expected to grow 25% YoY, adjusted operating profit is expected to grow by more than 10% YoY, and full-year revenue is expected to grow in the high double digits. In China, large stores and the remodeling of existing stores should improve sales productivity and franchisee ROI; overseas, although revenue growth has slowed from 30-40% in previous years to the high double digits, the company is placing greater emphasis on margins and repairing existing markets. YOYO proprietary IP sales are performing strongly, and 2026 global GMV could approach Rmb1 bn.

Analysis framework

The report analyzes revenue growth, same-store sales, store expansion, operating margins, regional market repair, and valuation based on management NDR discussions, company disclosures, and UBS's research framework. For valuation, UBS uses a three-stage DCF model to derive MINISO's target price.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsThree-stage DCF model

  Derive target price from staged discounted cash flows

  UBS states that it uses a three-stage DCF model to derive MINISO's target price, with a 12-month investment horizon.

• Management interviewNDR highlights

  Validate operating trends through post-earnings management roadshow discussions

  The report summarizes management guidance on 1Q26 revenue, profit, China large stores, overseas markets, and proprietary IP.

• Short-term factor assessmentQuantitative Research Review

  UBS's quantitative assessment of the probability of short-term factors

  This assessment reflects views on short-term factors and uses a time frame different from the 12-month stock rating in this report.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• MNSO.US

  The report covers this name, and UBS assigns it a Buy rating and a US$26.50 target price.

  Strengths

  1Q26 revenue and operating profit guidance are solid; the large-store model has a short payback period and high sales density; YOYO proprietary IP is selling strongly; the US market still has expected revenue growth above 40%.

  Weaknesses

  Overseas revenue growth has slowed from 30-40% in prior years to the high double digits; Indonesia and Mexico previously had execution, store quality, or merchandise rollout issues; the direct-operated model once weighed on margins.

  Comparison

  The Land store payback period of 5-6 months is better than the flagship store's 7-9 months and the ordinary store's roughly 1 year; Land store sales density of Rmb8-10k/sqm/month is higher than the ordinary store's Rmb1.5-2k/sqm/month.

  Risks

  Macro消费 slowdown, intensifying competition, blind-box regulation, IP popularity risk, geopolitical uncertainty, counterfeit-related litigation, and ADR regulatory uncertainty.

Key data

• 1Q26 revenue guidance+25% YoYManagement guides for total revenue growth of 25% YoY.
• China same-store sales growthhigh single-digit growthManagement guides China SSSG at +HSD.
• North America growthmid-to-high double-digit growthManagement guides North America growth at +mid-to-high teens.
• 1Q26 adjusted operating profitup more than 10% YoYExcluding investment gains, FX, and other factors, and better than prior internal expectations.
• 2026 revenue guidancehigh double-digit growthFull-year revenue is expected to grow in the high double digits YoY.
• Expected 2026 global GMV for YOYOclose to Rmb1 bnDriven by new product launches and rollout into more overseas stores.
• Miniso Land store target26 stores in 2025 to 100 by end-2026Management expects continued expansion of large stores.
• Land store payback period5-6 monthsShorter than 7-9 months for flagship stores and roughly 1 year for ordinary stores.
• Land store sales densityRmb8-10k/sqm/monthOrdinary stores are about Rmb1.5-2k/sqm/month.
• Expected 2026 revenue growth in the USmore than 40% YoYSame-store sales are expected to grow in the low single digits, with about 100 net new stores.
• Target priceUS$26.50UBS 12-month target price.
• Current priceUS$15.61Price as of 2026-04-13.

Impact & implications

The report's investment implication for MINISO is mildly positive: better sales productivity and shorter payback periods from domestic large stores and remodeled stores should support franchisee expansion willingness; overseas business is shifting from rapid expansion to margin improvement and repair of problematic markets, which may sacrifice growth in the near term but improve operating quality. If YOYO proprietary IP continues to sell well and the US and Mexico recover as expected, accelerating profit growth should support valuation.

Risks

• A slowdown in the Chinese economy may weigh on toy and discretionary consumer spending.
• Internet companies entering the space may intensify competition in the toy industry.
• The blind-box business model may face stricter regulatory scrutiny.
• Existing IP may face changing popularity trends.
• Geopolitical uncertainty may affect global expansion.
• The company may face potential litigation related to counterfeit allegations.
• ADR status is subject to regulatory uncertainty.
• Repair in overseas markets such as Indonesia and Mexico will take time, and poor execution could weigh on growth and margins.
• Rising material costs and freight rates in the US may create cost pressure.

What to watch

• Whether actual 1Q26 revenue growth, same-store sales, and adjusted operating profit meet management guidance.
• Whether Miniso Land stores can expand to 100 by end-2026 and whether the target of more than 95% being opened by franchisees can be achieved.
• The magnitude of sales uplift and rental-to-sales ratio improvement from the annual plan to remodel more than 300 stores.
• YOYO proprietary IP new product performance, overseas rollout speed, and progress toward the full-year GMV target of close to Rmb1 bn.
• Whether the margin drag from the overseas direct-operated model narrows from 3 percentage points in 2025 to about 1 percentage point.
• The pace of roughly 100 net new stores in the US, 30% operating margin at Plaza 2.0 stores, and supply-chain cost reduction progress.
• The sustainability of same-store sales recovery after execution adjustments in Indonesia and merchandise mix adjustments in Mexico.