Mixed feedback on Pop Mart's THE MONSTERS new release, with limited short-term catalysts

Overview

This report focuses on the launch of THE MONSTERS Hair Salon by Pop Mart 09992.HK. Citigroup points out that the series has attracted strong market attention due to its hairstyles, clothing, and richer character setup, enhancing playability and room for creative reworking; however, as of the report's publication, social media views on the plush design were not consistent, so the new release may struggle to become a clear catalyst in the short term.

Core views

The core view is that the new release is highly popular but demand is structurally differentiated: MOKOKO "Velvet Noon" is more sought after and has shown a secondary-market premium, followed by "Coastal Vibes" and "Born Rebel," while the other three standard styles show weaker demand and secondary-market prices below tag price. Over the medium to long term, Citigroup still uses DCF to capture the company's growth potential driven by IP operating capability and overseas expansion.

Analysis framework

The report combines new product launch information, social media feedback, Qiandao trends, secondary-market price performance, and reservation volumes at Douyin, Tmall, and Xiaohongshu flagship stores to assess the popularity of the new release and the strength of short-term catalysts; the valuation section uses the DCF method and discloses key assumptions such as WACC, risk-free rate, equity risk premium, beta, and perpetual growth rate.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsDCF

  Discounted cash flow valuation

  Citigroup believes DCF best reflects Pop Mart's long-term growth potential supported by strong IP operating capabilities and overseas expansion; the target price of HK$263 is based on WACC of 11.0% and a perpetual growth rate of 4%.

• Market heat observationSecondary-market price and reservation tracking

  Using premiums, below-tag pricing, and platform reservation volumes to gauge the strength of demand for new releases

  The report uses Qiandao trends, secondary-market price performance, and reservation counts at Douyin, Tmall, and Xiaohongshu flagship stores to judge demand divergence across different styles and the likelihood of short-term catalysts.

• Risk assessmentCiti Research risk rating

  High-risk stock identification

  Citigroup's quantitative risk rating system identifies the stock as high risk, but the analyst believes qualitative factors such as the company's execution capability and growth profile make this rating not fully applicable.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Pop Mart International Group Ltd (09992.HK)

  Covered company and Hong Kong-listed target

  Strengths

  Has strong IP operating capabilities, the THE MONSTERS series carries high buzz, and overseas expansion is incorporated into the long-term growth narrative.

  Weaknesses

  Feedback on the new release is not consistent, with some standard styles trading below tag price in the secondary market, making short-term catalysts uncertain.

  Comparison

  Demand differentiation within the same new product series is clear, with MOKOKO "Velvet Noon" outperforming the other standard styles.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition in China's designer toy market, weaker-than-expected global expansion, failure in IP commercialization, failure to renew licensing agreements, and tighter regulation.

• THE MONSTERS Hair Salon series

  Core IP new release and potential short-term catalyst

  Strengths

  Uses new suede-like materials and craftsmanship, enhancing hairstyle DIY, outfit matching, and creative reworking space, while introducing more characters from the THE MONSTERS family.

  Weaknesses

  Online feedback on the plush design is mixed, with demand mainly concentrated in a few styles.

  Comparison

  MOKOKO "Velvet Noon" is currently the most sought after, followed by "Coastal Vibes" and "Born Rebel."

  Risks

  If sell-through after the official launch is weak or secondary-market prices continue to soften, short-term market expectations may be revised downward.

Key data

• Target priceHK$263Based on DCF valuation.
• Unit price of new releaseRmb159THE MONSTERS Hair Salon retro barbershop series vinyl plush new release.
• Launch timing2026-06-25 online; 2026-06-26 offlineThe new release was announced on June 19 and became a topic over the weekend.
• Platform reservationsDouyin >17k; Tmall >10k; Xiaohongshu >3kFlagship store reservation data as of the evening of June 21.
• Key DCF assumptionsWACC 11.0%; risk-free rate 3%; equity risk premium 7.6%; beta 1.05; perpetual growth rate 4%Used to support the target price calculation.

Impact & implications

In the short term, although the new release has generated strong attention and reservation volumes, mixed social media reviews and divergent secondary-market performance imply that the strength of the share price catalyst may be limited. Over the medium to long term, valuation still depends on Pop Mart's ability to continue commercializing core IPs, launch popular products, improve the efficiency of overseas expansion, and maintain execution capability.

Risks

• Competition in China's designer toy market is intensifying, with more new entrants.
• Global expansion may underperform expectations.
• The company may fail to commercialize its IP effectively.
• Licensing renewals may fail.
• The regulatory environment may tighten.
• Mixed social media word-of-mouth for the new release may weaken short-term catalysts.

What to watch

• Actual sell-through speed and restocking pace after the online launch on June 25 and offline launch on June 26.
• Changes in secondary-market premiums for MOKOKO "Velvet Noon" and other styles.
• Conversion of reservation volumes on Douyin, Tmall, and Xiaohongshu into actual purchases.
• Whether new characters in the THE MONSTERS family can continue to expand user interaction and creative reworking.
• Progress in overseas expansion and the extent of its support for medium- to long-term DCF assumptions.
• Whether there are material changes in competition, licensing renewal, and regulatory risks.