BofA Keeps ASML at Buy: Ending Order Disclosure May Reduce Volatility, while EUV Capacity and 2030 Guidance Are the Key Watchpoints

Overview

This is a company research report from Bank of America on ASML Holding N.V. The report focuses on the market pricing mechanism after ASML stops disclosing orders, the 2026 earnings guidance, EUV and DUV capacity, High-NA EUV commercialization progress, and potential upward revisions to 2030 revenue and EPS targets. The author maintains a Buy rating and a €1,598 target price.

Core views

The core view is that ending order disclosure will create short-term investor questions, but it does not change ASML's monopolistic technology position or its earnings growth path. BofA believes U.S. peers have stopped disclosing orders for years and still outperformed ASML, so the market will gradually shift attention away from order data toward management commentary, revenue growth, gross margin, EUV capacity ramp, and High-NA adoption. The report expects 2026 revenue guidance could be raised or narrowed, 2027 to 2028 EPS forecasts to be 11% to 14% above consensus, and 2030 revenue targets to potentially be lifted from €44bn to €60bn to €54bn to €64bn.

Analysis framework

The report uses pre-earnings forward guidance, comparisons with peer disclosure practices, estimates of EUV/DUV shipment capacity, analysis of DRAM and logic wafer fab expansion demand, assessment of the High-NA EUV availability path, and an EV/EBITDA valuation framework to support the investment rating. The emphasis is not on quarterly orders, but on medium- to long-term capacity, technology migration, and customer capital expenditure intensity.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsEV/EBITDA

  Derive the target price using 30.0x CY27E EV/EBITDA

  The report says the 30.0x multiple sits within the historical range of 18x to 34x and above the five-year historical median of 26x, justified by accelerating EPS growth.

• Scenario Analysis2030 Revenue and EPS Sensitivity

  Bull and bear scenario ranges for revenue and EPS

  The report's bull-bear scenario analysis points to 2030 revenue of about €53.7bn to €65.4bn and EPS of about €52.5 to €73.8.

• Industry Supply-Demand AnalysisEUV Capacity and Wafer Fab Expansion Tracking

  Assess equipment demand through 300mm wafer fab projects, DRAM expansion, and changes in EUV layers

  The report believes incremental DRAM capacity exceeds ASML's model assumptions, while the 4F2 architecture may modestly increase the number of EUV layers, extending the demand cycle for EUV tools.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• ASML HOLDING NV

  Core coverage asset

  Strengths

  Near-monopoly in EUV lithography; lithography equipment is a critical part of advanced semiconductor manufacturing; AI, DRAM expansion, logic node migration, and High-NA EUV adoption support long-term growth.

  Weaknesses

  Valuation depends on the delivery of medium- to long-term high growth; once order disclosure ends, investors lose a traditional leading indicator in the short term; EUV and High-NA ramps require strong execution.

  Comparison

  The report notes that ASML's U.S. semiconductor equipment peers have stopped disclosing orders for years, yet that has not prevented them from outperforming ASML, so the lack of order disclosure should not by itself be a reason for a long-term valuation discount.

  Risks

  Delayed EUV tool shipments, gross margins on EUV tools and services below expectations, semiconductor capital expenditure weaker than expected, and China export restrictions.

• TSMC

  Key customer and potential source of High-NA demand

  Strengths

  Demand for advanced logic manufacturing may support adoption of EUV and High-NA EUV tools.

  Weaknesses

  Customer adoption pace depends on High-NA availability, process planning, and the capital expenditure cycle.

  Comparison

  The report identifies TSMC alongside SK Hynix as a key customer that could drive High-NA demand in 2028.

  Risks

  A slowdown in advanced-node expansion or delays in High-NA introduction could weaken demand for ASML equipment.

• SK Hynix

  Potential source of DRAM and High-NA demand

  Strengths

  DRAM and HBM-related expansion helps increase demand for EUV tools.

  Weaknesses

  Demand is highly tied to the memory cycle and capital discipline.

  Comparison

  The report says the increase in DRAM capacity exceeds ASML's model assumptions and is one of the key drivers for ASML approaching full EUV utilization.

  Risks

  A weaker memory cycle, slower expansion, or High-NA adoption below expectations.

Key data

• Target price€1,598; ADR US$1,886Target price unchanged.
• RatingBuyThe report maintains a Buy rating.
• Expected 2026 revenue growth guidance+11% to +20%The report expects the company may narrow the original +4% to +20% range.
• Expected gross margin guidance51% to 53%The report expects gross margin guidance to remain unchanged.
• BofA 2026 gross margin forecast52.6%Above consensus, mainly due to better DUV revenue and improved ArFi supply.
• 2027/2028 EPS forecast€43/€50BofA says this is 11% to 14% above consensus.
• Q4 2027 EUV shipment capacityAbout 22 units per quarter, close to 90 annualizedThe report believes ASML will be close to full EUV utilization by then.
• Potential 2028 EUV capacity target>100 unitsThe report believes ASML may signal the need to raise 2028 capacity.
• High-NA EUV availability path80% by end-2025, 90% by end-2026The report believes this progress is enough to drive demand from TSMC and SK Hynix in 2028.
• Potential 2030 revenue guidance€54bn to €64bnThe report expects this could be raised from the prior €44bn to €60bn.
• Potential 2030 EPS range€53 to €74The report gives BofA's forecast as €67.5.

Impact & implications

For investors, ASML's short-term trading anchor may shift from order data to management forward-looking comments, the revenue growth range, and capacity signals. If the 2026 guidance narrows, full EUV ramp progress and High-NA customer adoption are confirmed, the market may gain confidence in 2027 to 2028 earnings and 2030 targets. Ending order disclosure may also reduce quarterly order-driven volatility, but it increases reliance on management communication quality.

Risks

• Delays in ramping EUV machine shipments.
• Gross margins on EUV machines and services below expectations.
• A macro slowdown or industry oversupply causing semiconductor capital expenditure to undershoot expectations.
• China export restrictions affecting sales and demand visibility.
• If management's forward-looking communication is insufficient after ending order disclosure, investor confidence could come under near-term pressure.

What to watch

• The April 15 pre-market earnings release and the market reaction to the first period without order disclosure.
• Whether 2026 revenue growth guidance narrows to +11% to +20%.
• Whether gross margin guidance remains at 51% to 53%.
• Whether better DUV revenue and ArFi supply support earnings above consensus.
• Whether EUV capacity progresses toward close to full utilization in Q4 2027, or close to 90 units annualized.
• Whether ASML signals that 2028 EUV capacity needs to be raised to above 100 units.
• Whether High-NA EUV availability reaches the path of 80% by end-2025 and 90% by end-2026.
• Whether TSMC and SK Hynix drive High-NA demand in 2028.
• Whether the company raises its 2030 revenue and EPS targets at the fourth-quarter CMD.