J.P. Morgan maintains Overweight on Qingdao TGOOD Electric, target price Rmb35

Overview

This report centers on Qingdao TGOOD Electric's recent roughly 9% share-price rebound, arguing that the move mainly reflected progress toward a Hong Kong listing and market expectations for overseas order growth. J.P. Morgan maintains an Overweight rating and a Dec-26 target price of Rmb35/sh. The core thesis is that the company's prefabricated substation, EV charging network and data center power equipment businesses all have growth drivers that are not yet fully priced in.

Core views

The report's core views are: first, overseas order expansion is becoming a clearer catalyst, with 2025 overseas orders of RMB 1.2bn, up about 50% year on year, and the company having made progress on projects in Oman, Saudi Arabia and Europe; second, data center power equipment could become a new growth curve, and the HVPAC product may shorten deployment time and support modular scaling from 100MW to the GW level; third, prefabricated and modular solutions are gaining acceptance among AI data centers, industrial facilities and grid customers; fourth, at about 18x one-year forward P/E, the company still trades at a discount versus peers with more visible overseas exposure.

Analysis framework

The report uses catalyst analysis, business segment analysis, peer valuation comparison and a sum-of-the-parts valuation approach, focusing on overseas orders, new data center products, improved EV charging profitability and electrical equipment demand.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodssum_of_the_parts

  Sum-of-the-parts valuation

  J.P. Morgan values the electrical equipment and EV charging businesses separately at 20x FY27E P/E each, arriving at a target price of Rmb35/sh.

• relative_valuationforward_pe_peer_comparison

  Forward P/E peer comparison

  The report compares the company's roughly 18x one-year forward P/E with the 25-30x range of peers with more visible overseas exposure, and concludes the valuation remains attractive.

• catalyst_analysisnear_term_catalyst_tracking

  Near-term catalyst tracking

  The report focuses on progress toward a Hong Kong listing, accelerating Middle East tenders, overseas order wins, and a 2Q update or sample delivery for data center equipment.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Qingdao TGOOD Electric (300001.SZ / 300001 CH)

  Core research coverage; J.P. Morgan maintains Overweight.

  Strengths

  Leading position in prefabricated substations, China's largest EV charging network with about 20%+ share, overseas order growth, optionality in data center HVPAC/SST technologies, and a valuation below some peers.

  Weaknesses

  The data center business is still in a growth and product-validation phase, the pace of overseas expansion still needs to be observed, and the EV charging business is sensitive to utilization.

  Comparison

  The company trades at about 18x one-year forward P/E, below peers with more visible overseas exposure at around 25-30x.

  Risks

  Lower-than-expected EV charger utilization, lower-than-expected electrical equipment demand, slower-than-expected overseas expansion, and slower-than-expected growth in data center-related businesses.

Key data

• Today’s share performanceabout +9%The report says it was roughly flat versus SHCOMP, and the rebound may have been driven by progress toward a Hong Kong listing and expectations for overseas orders.
• Target priceRmb35/shDec-26 target price, based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation.
• Electrical equipment business 2027E earningsRmb1,431mnThe valuation table uses 20x P/E, corresponding to a valuation of Rmb28,621mn.
• EV charging business 2027E earningsRmb410mnThe valuation table uses 20x P/E, corresponding to a valuation of about Rmb8,200mn.
• Total valuationRmb36,821mnConverted using 1,056mn shares to reach the JPM target price of Rmb35/sh.
• 2025 overseas ordersRMB1.2bn, about +50% YoYThe company disclosed several overseas project updates in its 1Q26 announcement.
• Saudi prefabricated substation tender sizefrom less than Rmb2bn last year to more than Rmb4bn this yearThe report believes faster Middle East tender activity could bring incremental order catalysts.
• FY25 data center-related ordersabout RMB400mnJ.P. Morgan estimates there is potential to double in FY26E.
• Current valuationabout 18x one-year forward P/EBelow some peers with more visible overseas exposure at around 25-30x.
• Year-to-date gainabout +28%Compared with about +15% for SZCOMP.

Impact & implications

If overseas orders and data center product progress are realized, the company could be re-rated from a traditional power equipment and EV charging operator into a diversified platform company with overseas power equipment and AI data center power growth exposure. A narrowing of the valuation discount is the report's main investment implication.

Risks

• Lower-than-expected EV charger utilization.
• Lower-than-expected demand for electrical equipment.
• Slower-than-expected overseas expansion.
• Slower-than-expected growth in data center-related businesses.
• If near-term catalysts remain only at the expectation stage, the valuation re-rating may be delayed.

What to watch

• Follow-up announcements and the timetable related to the Hong Kong listing.
• Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, prefabricated substation tenders and order wins.
• Delivery progress on overseas projects in Oman, Saudi Arabia and Europe.
• 2Q updates on data center equipment, HVPAC product launches or sample deliveries.
• Whether FY26E data center orders show meaningful growth from FY25's roughly RMB400mn.
• Profit growth attributable to the asset-light EV charging model and charger utilization.