Canada Mining Weekly: Copper Rises Then Pulls Back, Gold Remains Under Pressure

Overview

This report focuses on weekly changes in the Canadian and North American metals and mining sector, centered on copper, gold, mining-company M&A, major companies' 1Q26 results, and valuation and risk disclosures. Copper prices surged early in the week before easing by week-end, reflecting the interaction of supply risks, geopolitical easing, and pre-tariff stockpiling. Gold was clearly under pressure, mainly due to higher US rate expectations, rising 10-year Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar.

Core views

Jefferies' core view is that the fundamental tailwinds for copper remain intact, but prices have become notably volatile; gold still has medium- to long-term support from inflation and currency-debasement logic, but if the market believes the Fed is more likely to hike than cut, gold prices may remain under pressure. At the industry level, consolidation among mid-cap and intermediate-sized gold companies may continue, large-scale M&A among major gold miners is less likely, and acquisitions by large companies of smaller or early-stage companies to replenish growth pipelines are more worth watching.

Analysis framework

The report combines weekly commodity price commentary, macro analysis of rates and the dollar, company event tracking, 1Q26 earnings comparisons, and valuation tables with key financial metric summaries. At the company level, it focuses on adjusted EPS, adjusted EBITDA, production, AISC, P/NAV, spot prices, and valuation metrics under Jefferies' price assumptions.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodP/NAV and relative valuation

  Mining-company valuation versus historical trading ranges

  The report's charts disclose companies' P/NAV trading ranges and combine company reports, FactSet, and Jefferies estimates to assess mining-company valuation levels.

• Commodity price scenariosSpot price deck and Jefferies price deck

  Financial and valuation sensitivity under spot-price and Jefferies price assumptions

  The report separately lists summary tables, key ratios, and key financial data calculated under spot-price and Jefferies price assumptions to observe companies' valuation and financial performance across different price environments.

• Rating frameworkJefferies 12-month total return rating framework

  Buy, Hold, Underperform based on future 12-month total return ranges

  Jefferies defines Buy as expected 12-month total return of at least 15%, Hold as roughly +15% to -10%, and Underperform as -10% or lower; lower-priced stocks may use adjusted thresholds.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Copper

  One of the core commodities, with prices rising first and then falling

  Strengths

  Supported by supply risk, pre-tariff stockpiling, and geopolitical easing.

  Weaknesses

  Prices pulled back after reaching highs, with elevated short-term volatility.

  Comparison

  Compared with gold, copper was stronger early in the week and weaker later, while gold declined more one-directionally.

  Risks

  Slowing macro demand, inventory changes, tariff-policy uncertainty, and easing supply risks could weigh on prices.

• Gold

  One of the core commodities, under short-term pressure

  Strengths

  Still supported over the medium to long term by inflation and currency-debasement logic.

  Weaknesses

  Higher US rate expectations, rising 10-year yields, and a stronger dollar are negative for gold.

  Comparison

  Compared with copper, gold lacked rebound momentum this week and moved more in a one-way downtrend.

  Risks

  If the market continues to believe the Fed is more likely to hike than cut, gold may remain under pressure.

• Gold miners

  Driven by gold prices, M&A, and earnings

  Strengths

  The EQX/ORLA transaction shows that mid-cap gold consolidation is still active, and AEM has government-relations and project-execution advantages.

  Weaknesses

  Some companies' earnings are sensitive to realized prices, costs, and production timing.

  Comparison

  M&A among large gold miners is less likely; small and mid-sized companies and growth-pipeline assets are more likely targets.

  Risks

  Lower gold prices, higher AISC, project delays, permitting risk, and deal integration risk.

• Precious-metals streaming and royalty companies

  Cyclical exposure through precious-metals prices and sales volume

  Strengths

  Some companies are seeing higher 2026E GEO sales or production expectations, including WPM, FNV, RGLD, and OR.

  Weaknesses

  Sensitive to deal structure, mine production, and metal prices.

  Comparison

  Compared with traditional miners, royalty/streaming models usually carry lower capex burdens, but valuations rely more on long-term cash-flow certainty.

  Risks

  Underlying mine deliveries coming in below expectations, lower metal prices, and multiple compression.

• Canadian mining stock basket

  The report covers multiple Canadian and North American listed mining stocks

  Strengths

  The covered companies span gold, silver, copper, and royalty/streaming assets, providing diversified commodity exposure.

  Weaknesses

  Affected jointly by commodity prices, FX, costs, policy, and company project execution.

  Comparison

  The coexistence of Buy and Hold ratings shows differentiated opportunities and risks within the sector.

  Risks

  FX volatility, capex overruns, geopolitics, regulatory permitting, and investment-banking conflict disclosures.

Key data

• Copper price driverSharp rise early in the week followed by a pullback at week-endTailwinds included supply risk, easing tensions in the Iran war, and pre-tariff stockpiling in the US.
• Short-term pressure on goldGold prices fell this weekUS 10-year yields rose above 4.5%, the dollar strengthened, and the market reassessed the Fed's rate path.
• US nonfarm payrolls+115kAbove the 63k consensus, reinforcing the view that the labor market remains resilient.
• US April CPI+3.8%Above the +3.7% consensus and March's +3.3%, increasing uncertainty around the rate path.
• India gold and silver import tariffRaised from 6% to 15%Aimed at reducing imports, easing current-account pressure, and supporting the rupee.
• EQX/ORLA transactionCombined market cap of about $18.5bn, annual production of about 1.1MozORLA shareholders receive 1 EQX share plus nominal cash, and post-merger EQX and ORLA shareholders will own about 67% and 33%, respectively.
• AEM Ontario investment planAbout $8.75bn through 2030About $4.5bn is related to Detour, Upper Beaver, and Macassa capex, with the remainder for operations and exploration.
• B 1Q26 adjusted EPS$0.98Above Jefferies' $0.80 forecast and the $0.83 consensus; adjusted EBITDA was $3,933M.
• FNV 1Q26 adjusted EPS$2.38Above Jefferies' $2.03 forecast and the $2.14 consensus; adjusted EBITDA was $592M.
• GMIN 1Q26 adjusted EPS$0.27Below Jefferies' $0.43 forecast and the $0.37 consensus, mainly because realized gold prices were below model assumptions.

Impact & implications

From an investment perspective, copper-related assets remain supported by supply and policy expectations, but the pullback from highs highlights trading risk; gold assets are more sensitive in the short term to US rates and the dollar, and if the Fed keeps rates elevated while inflation continues to rise, gold could become attractive again. At the company level, miners with strong government relations, project permitting, capex execution, and growth pipelines may enjoy relative advantages; consolidation among mid-tier gold companies is likely to remain a sector theme.

Risks

• If the Fed's rate path stays above market expectations, gold could remain under pressure.
• A stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields reduce the appeal of precious metals.
• The pullback in copper from highs shows that short-term volatility risk is elevated.
• Mining companies may face higher AISC, production misses, and capex overruns.
• M&A transactions carry risks around valuation, integration, shareholder dilution, and synergy delivery.
• Import tariffs, resource policy, permitting approvals, and changes in government relations may affect project execution.
• The report discloses that Jefferies has or may have investment-banking relationships with some covered companies, so investors should pay attention to potential conflicts of interest.

What to watch

• US inflation, nonfarm payrolls, 10-year Treasury yields, and dollar moves.
• Whether the Fed leans toward hiking, holding, or shifting back to cuts.
• Copper inventories, supply disruptions, US tariff policy, and restocking behavior.
• Further gold-sector M&A, especially consolidation among mid-sized and smaller gold companies.
• Progress on the EQX/ORLA deal, shareholding changes, and the production-growth path.
• AEM's capex, permitting, infrastructure, and government-cooperation progress in Ontario.
• Subsequent earnings, cash flow, production, and AISC performance at B, FNV, and GMIN.
• Changes in valuation tables and key financial metrics under spot prices and Jefferies price assumptions.