China's May lithium salt trade: lithium carbonate import volume and prices rose significantly, while lithium hydroxide exports declined but prices strengthened

Overview

This report tracks China's May lithium salt export and import data, focusing on lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide. Core data showed divergence: lithium carbonate import volume rose sharply year over year, and import prices also moved up significantly; lithium hydroxide export volume declined year over year, but average export prices increased markedly both month over month and year over year.

Core views

The report's main message is that China's lithium salt trade volume and pricing are undergoing notable changes. For lithium carbonate, May import volume rose 78% YoY, year-to-date 2026 net imports rose 54.5% YoY, and the average import price rose 102% YoY, indicating strong import demand and pricing. For lithium hydroxide, May export volume fell 36% YoY, but the average export price rose 64% YoY, and China turned into a net importer of 10.5kt year-to-date 2026, indicating that trade flow and price signals are not fully aligned.

Analysis framework

Based on monthly and annual import-export data, the report compares China's lithium salt trade volume, net imports or net exports, and import-export prices on a year-over-year and month-over-month basis, and uses historical annual data to observe changes in lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide trade trends.

Methodology notes

• Industry supply-demand trackingImport-export data monitoring

  Observe supply-demand flows through China's lithium salt import, export, and net import/net export data.

  Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are key materials in the lithium value chain, and changes in trade volume can serve as reference indicators for demand, restocking, supply structure, and regional flow changes.

• Price momentum analysisYear-over-year and month-over-month comparison

  Measure price trends using YoY and MoM changes in monthly average prices.

  The report compares May prices with those in April and the same period last year to assess short-term price momentum and the magnitude of annual price changes.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Lithium Carbonate

  China's import data are important indicators for observing lithium salt supply-demand and price trends.

  Strengths

  May import volume rose sharply year over year, and the average import price doubled year over year, showing strength in both volume and price.

  Weaknesses

  Import-export data cannot directly distinguish end demand, inventory accumulation, contract pricing, and product specification differences.

  Comparison

  Year-to-date 2026 net imports rose 54.5% YoY, while full-year 2025 net imports rose only 2.8% YoY.

  Risks

  If downstream demand slows, inventories rise, or supply increases, import growth and price strength may be hard to sustain.

• Lithium Hydroxide

  Changes in China's exports and net imports reflect shifts in lithium salt trade structure and overseas demand.

  Strengths

  May average export price rose 33% MoM and 64% YoY, showing strong price performance.

  Weaknesses

  May export volume fell 36% YoY, and year-to-date 2026 shifted to net imports, indicating weak volume signals.

  Comparison

  2025 net exports were 35.4kt, a sharp 69% decline from 113kt in 2024.

  Risks

  Weaker export demand, changes in overseas supply, or shifts in trade flows may continue to suppress export volume.

Key data

• May lithium carbonate import volume37.6ktUp 78% YoY; the same period last year was 21.1kt.
• Year-to-date 2026 lithium carbonate net imports151.4ktUp 54.5% YoY.
• May lithium carbonate average import price$18,993/tApril was $16,586/t, and May 2025 was $9,392/t; up 15% MoM and 102% YoY.
• May lithium hydroxide export volume3.5ktDown 36% YoY; the same period last year was 5.6kt.
• Year-to-date 2026 lithium hydroxide net imports10.5ktThe report states that China has been a net importer of lithium hydroxide year to date.
• May China LiOH average export price$19,856/tApril was $14,894/t, and May 2025 was $12,093/t; up 33% MoM and 64% YoY.
• 2025 lithium carbonate net imports237.7ktUp 2.8% YoY; 2024 was 231kt, up 55% YoY.
• 2025 lithium hydroxide net exports35.4ktDown 69% versus 2024; 2024 net exports were 113kt, down 11% versus 2023.

Impact & implications

The simultaneous rise in lithium carbonate import volume and prices may strengthen market focus on China's lithium salt demand, restocking, or rising import costs; lithium hydroxide, meanwhile, shows mixed signals of declining export volume but rising prices, suggesting possible changes in overseas demand, product mix, or trade flows. As the report is mainly a trade data update, its investment implications still need to be assessed together with inventories, downstream battery demand, supply-side output, and spot prices.

Risks

• The main body of the report is primarily trade data and lacks detailed explanation of inventories, end demand, and supply, so it cannot independently infer the long-term direction of lithium prices.
• Average import-export prices may be affected by product specifications, contract structure, exchange rates, and changes in trade mix.
• The coexistence of declining lithium hydroxide export volume and rising prices suggests potentially diverging supply-demand signals.
• The report does not provide specific company earnings estimates, rating changes, or target price revisions.

What to watch

• Whether China's lithium carbonate import volume remains at a high level in subsequent months.
• Whether the month-over-month changes in average import-export prices for lithium carbonate and LiOH continue.
• Whether lithium hydroxide continues to show net imports and whether export volume recovers.
• Changes in inventories, downstream battery demand, overseas lithium salt supply, and spot prices.