Goldman Sachs raises its global LEO satellite installed-base outlook to 305k units in the 2031E base case and 396k units in the blue-sky case

Overview

After publishing its global LEO satellite industry estimates in February 2025, Goldman Sachs observed a significant acceleration in LEO satellite launches during 2025 and therefore raised its global installed-base forecasts. In the base case, the report expects the global LEO satellite installed base to increase from 10k units in 2025 to 24k units in 2028E and reach 305k units in 2031E; the blue-sky scenario assumes that rocket launch capacity, satellite communications monetization, and space data center commercialization all exceed expectations, resulting in an installed base of up to 396k units in 2031E.

Core views

The core view is that the LEO satellite industry is entering a phase of faster deployment, driven jointly by three factors: first, operators such as Amazon LEO and Guowang are updating and expanding their constellation plans to secure low-Earth-orbit altitudes, spectrum, and commercialization windows; second, reusable rockets and higher-payload rockets are increasing launch frequency and reducing costs; and third, applications such as in-flight connectivity, emergency communications, unmanned industrial scenarios, smart marine ranching, autonomous surface vessels, and space data centers are expanding potential demand. Chinese LEO constellations provide the main upside in the blue-sky scenario, although their technical feasibility and long-term delivery still require validation.

Analysis framework

The report uses a top-down installed-base forecasting and scenario-analysis framework, incorporating operators' public filings, constellation deployment plans, rocket launch capacity, application commercialization progress, and supply-chain mapping to update the LEO satellite installed-base trajectory from 2026E to 2031E and distinguish between the base case and blue-sky scenario.

Methodology notes

• Industry forecastingLEO satellite installed-base model

  Derives the global installed-base trajectory from operator launch plans, rocket capacity, and commercial demand.

  The report uses the acceleration in actual launches during 2025 as its starting point and updates global LEO satellite installed-base forecasts for 2026E/2027E/2028E/2031E based on constellation sizes submitted by operators and launch constraints.

• Scenario analysisBlue-sky scenario

  Estimates potential upside under more optimistic assumptions.

  The blue-sky scenario assumes improvements in rocket launch capacity, faster monetization of satellite communications, and progress in space data center commercialization, while incorporating the potential long-term realization of Chinese companies' 200k-satellite plans.

• Supply-chain analysisSatellite ecosystem map

  Identifies relevant companies and beneficiary areas by segment of the industry chain.

  The report divides the industry chain into operators, satellite components, satellite manufacturing, launches, remote sensing, positioning, ground stations, and user terminals, and notes that the companies listed do not constitute an exhaustive list.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Global LEO satellite industry chain

  Core thematic asset

  Strengths

  Installed-base forecasts have been significantly upgraded, operators are expanding their plans, and commercial applications are extending from communications to space data centers, emergency communications, and unmanned scenarios.

  Weaknesses

  The industry chain covers a broad range of companies, and revenue recognition and earnings sensitivity in some segments may lag installed-base growth.

  Comparison

  The base case has already been significantly raised from previous forecasts; the blue-sky scenario has 91k more installed units than the base case in 2031E.

  Risks

  Insufficient launch capacity, slower-than-expected commercialization, and uncertainty surrounding regulatory and orbital-spectrum approvals.

• Chinese LEO constellation operators

  Main source of upside in the blue-sky scenario

  Strengths

  GW, G60, and Honghu are all plans on the scale of tens of thousands of satellites, while Chinese operators have collectively submitted applications for 200k+ satellites, indicating a strategic intention to secure spectrum and orbital resources.

  Weaknesses

  The report explicitly notes that technical feasibility still requires validation, and Chinese LEO satellites constitute a major upside component not included in the base case.

  Comparison

  In the base case, Chinese companies have 24k installed units in 2031E, compared with 101k units in the blue-sky scenario.

  Risks

  Progress in reusable rockets, supply-chain mass-production capacity, approvals, and long-term capital investment could all affect the delivery pace.

• Reusable rockets and launch services

  Key constraint variable for accelerating the installed base

  Strengths

  Higher launch frequency and greater payload capacity can directly accelerate LEO satellite deployment and help reduce launch costs.

  Weaknesses

  China currently relies mainly on non-reusable rockets such as LM-6A and LM-12; reusable capabilities remain in the testing and ramp-up stages.

  Comparison

  SpaceX has demonstrated high-frequency launch capabilities; reusable rocket programs including China's LM-10, Zhuque-3, Hyperbola-3, and PALLAS-1 are expected to advance testing or first flights around 2026.

  Risks

  Test failures, insufficient reusability reliability, and less-than-expected cost reductions.

• Hon Hai

  One of the supply-chain beneficiaries

  Strengths

  The report lists Hon Hai multiple times across satellite manufacturing, platforms and subsystems, connectors, ground stations, and user terminals, and notes its inclusion on the Asian Conviction List.

  Weaknesses

  The report is not an in-depth standalone report on Hon Hai and does not elaborate on its specific revenue sensitivity or earnings forecasts.

  Comparison

  The disclosure page lists a Buy rating for Hon Hai and a price of NT$242.00.

  Risks

  There is uncertainty surrounding order realization, customer concentration, the proportion of revenue from satellite businesses, and execution pace.

• Satellite component and user-terminal suppliers

  Supporting beneficiaries of downstream installed-base expansion

  Strengths

  RF/microwave, PCB/CCL, power supplies, connectors, antennas, baseband, RFFE, MOSFETs, and other components have demand sensitivity to the expansion of satellite and terminal deployments.

  Weaknesses

  There are numerous supply-chain companies, and the report notes that its list is not exhaustive; the benefit to each company must be assessed based on customers, product value, and coverage ratings.

  Comparison

  The report lists relevant companies including UMT, Win Semi, Tong Hsing, Compeq, ChiconyPower, ZTE, WNC, Compal, and Tongyu.

  Risks

  Price competition, specification iterations, certification cycles, and weaker-than-expected terminal demand.

Key data

• Global LEO satellite installed base in 202510k unitsAbove the previous forecast of 9.7k units.
• Global installed-base forecast in the base case24k/305k units in 2028E/2031EPrevious forecasts were 19k/42k units in 2028E/2031E.
• Global installed-base forecast in the blue-sky scenario27k/396k units in 2028E/2031EThe main upside comes from Chinese LEO satellite plans.
• Global installed-base forecast for 2026E/2027E13k/17k unitsPrevious forecasts were 12k/15k units for 2026E/2027E.
• Installed base of Chinese companies in the base case1.9k units in 2028E and 24k units in 2031EChinese companies operated 253 satellites as of the end of 2025.
• Installed base of Chinese companies in the blue-sky scenario101k units in 2031EBased on the long-term potential of Chinese companies' applications to the ITU for 200k satellites.
• New Amazon LEO approval4,500 LEO satellitesApproved by the FCC in February 2026.
• Scale of China's medium- and low-Earth-orbit satellite applications200k+ unitsApplications submitted to the ITU by Chinese satellite operators.
• GW constellation plan12,992 unitsSubmitted to the ITU in 2020; 10%, or 1,299 units, must be launched before 2029.
• G60 constellation plan15,000 unitsThe target is to reach 1,296 units by the end of 2027 and 15,000 units by 2030.
• Honghu constellation plan10,000 unitsSubmitted to the ITU in 2024, implying that 1,000 units must be operational in orbit by the end of 2033.
• LEO payload of current mainstream reusable rockets17,500 kgNext-generation rockets could support payloads of 100-150 tons.

Impact & implications

If the report's forecasts materialize, the LEO satellite industry chain will move from a deployment phase dominated by a small number of operators into a broader phase of commercial expansion. Beneficiary areas include reusable rockets and launch services, satellite platforms and assembly, RF/microwave components, power supplies, PCB/CCL, connectors, ground-station equipment, user terminals, and related communications components. For investors, the key issue is not simply satellite unit growth, but whether launch capacity, orbital and spectrum resources, terminal penetration, and commercial applications can form a closed loop.

Risks

• Reusable rocket technology and improvements in launch frequency may fall short of expectations, causing satellite deployment to lag the model assumptions.
• Monetization of satellite communications, space data centers, and other commercial applications may be slower than expected, weakening operators' expansion incentives.
• The 200k Chinese satellite applications may reflect primarily strategic resource positioning, leaving uncertainty around the actual scale of long-term deployment.
• Spectrum, orbital resources, regulatory approvals and international coordination involving the FCC/ITU and other bodies may affect constellation deployment schedules.
• If supply-chain capacity, yields, cost reductions, and component certification fall short of expectations, installed-base expansion will be constrained.
• Intensifying industry competition could compress margins for operators and hardware suppliers.

What to watch

• Progress on testing and first flights of Chinese reusable rockets in 2026, including LM-10, Zhuque-3, Hyperbola-3, and PALLAS-1.
• Subsequent launch plans, approvals, and actual in-orbit satellite counts for major operators including Amazon LEO, Guowang, G60, and Honghu.
• Monthly or quarterly changes in the number of Chinese LEO satellites in orbit after 2026.
• Commercial orders for satellite communications in scenarios such as in-flight connectivity, emergency communications, autonomous surface vessels, and unmanned industrial robots.
• Whether space data center technology validation, energy advantages, and edge-computing applications establish a commercially viable path.
• Order disclosures and revenue contributions from supply-chain companies in satellite platforms, terminals, ground stations, and key components.