Goldman Sachs China Economic Activity and Policy Weekly Tracker

Overview

In its weekly tracker report published on June 12, 2026, Goldman Sachs systematically updated four major high-frequency indicators of the Chinese economy: 1) Consumption & Mobility, 2) Production & Investment, 3) Other Macro Activities, and 4) Markets & Policy. Against the backdrop of a supply-side shock triggered by rising energy prices, the tracking frequency was increased to weekly. The report primarily presents the latest changes via charts and data points without making directional recommendations.

Core views

**Consumption & Mobility:** Divergence emerged in the real estate market. Average daily new home transaction area in 30 cities (as of June 11) fell 9.5% YoY, below the level of the same period last year; however, average daily second-hand home transaction area in 16 cities still grew 7.4% YoY, despite a recent pullback. Domestic flights (as of June 11) declined 9.9% YoY; while the flight cancellation rate has decreased, it remains high. The traffic congestion index rose 6.1% YoY (June 10). **Autos & Commodity Prices:** Auto sales were broadly weak in May. NEV sales fell 7.5% YoY, and total auto sales dropped sharply by 19.9% YoY. Domestic gasoline and diesel prices remained unchanged over the past week. Polypropylene prices edged up, while other chemical prices stabilized. Import prices (in USD terms) rose significantly in May, with sharp increases in both energy products and integrated circuits. **Production & Investment:** Steel demand (as of June 12) fell 2.7% YoY, while steel output was largely flat (-0.2% YoY). Average daily coal consumption in coastal provinces retreated from recent highs but remained up 6.7% YoY (June 9). Year-to-date cumulative issuance of local government special bonds reached RMB 1.59 trillion, representing 36.5% of the full-year quota. **Other Macro Activities:** Weekly port container throughput (June 8) rose 5.3% YoY, and cargo tonnage of departing vessels at the top 20 ports (June 11) also increased 5.3% YoY. Goldman Sachs Commodities team's high-frequency nowcast model shows China's oil demand at a latest reading of 16.2 mb/d, reflecting a decline. **Markets & Policy:** Interbank repo rates have risen recently. Over the past week, the RMB appreciated against both the USD and the CFETS basket. The counter-cyclical factor implied in the USD/CNY central parity rate has declined, indicating weakened official guidance for a stronger RMB. The report also lists key macro policy developments since mid-April, covering fiscal policy, growth, employment, trade, and energy.

Analysis framework

The report employs a **high-frequency data tracking framework**, constructing a "snapshot" of China's economic activity across four dimensions: Consumption & Mobility (real estate transactions, flights, congestion, retail), Production & Investment (steel, coal, power, special bonds), Other Macro Activities (port throughput, oil demand), and Markets & Policy (interest rates, FX, policy announcements). Representative high-frequency indicators are selected for each dimension (e.g., new home transactions in 30 cities, apparent steel demand, port container throughput), and year-on-year changes (vs. the same period in 2025) are used to gauge the direction of economic momentum. For oil demand, the Goldman Sachs Commodities team's nowcast model provides more timely weekly estimates compared to official data (updated every six weeks). This tracking approach enables readers to quickly grasp marginal shifts in recent economic momentum and is particularly useful for rapid assessment following external shocks (e.g., energy prices).

Methodology notes

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  Supply Shocks and Demand Changes

  The report focuses on the impact of the supply-side shock from rising energy prices on the Chinese economy. By tracking high-frequency data on the production side (steel output, coal consumption) and consumption side (real estate transactions, auto sales, mobility), it assesses actual changes in supply and demand to evaluate the transmission path of the shock.

• Cycle and Sentiment FrameworkInflection Point Analysis

  High-Frequency Nowcast Model

  The report uses a "nowcast" approach to estimate current economic activity levels (e.g., oil demand) in real time using available high-frequency data (e.g., port throughput, refinery runs), rather than waiting for low-frequency official releases. This method offers greater timeliness than traditional monthly/quarterly data and can capture economic inflection points more rapidly.

• Macroeconomic framework

  Counter-Cyclical Factor Analysis

  The report gauges the PBOC's stance on the exchange rate by analyzing changes in the "counter-cyclical factor" embedded in the USD/CNY central parity pricing. The counter-cyclical factor is a tool used by the central bank to guide RMB exchange rate expectations; a positive value signals guidance toward strength (resisting depreciation pressure), while a negative value signals guidance toward weakness (allowing depreciation or resisting appreciation pressure).

Key data

• New Home Transaction Area in 30 Cities YoY-9.5%As of June 11, compared to the same period in 2025 (i.e., YoY, same below); below the level of the same period last year
• Second-Hand Home Transaction Area in 16 Cities YoY+7.4%As of June 11; still above the level of the same period last year but retreated recently
• Domestic Flights YoY-9.9%As of June 11
• NEV Sales in May YoY-7.5%Full-month data for May; below the level of the same period last year
• Total Auto Sales in May YoY-19.9%Full-month data for May; significantly below the level of the same period last year
• Steel Demand YoY-2.7%Week ending June 12
• Steel Output YoY-0.2%Week ending June 12
• Coal Consumption in Coastal Provinces YoY+6.7%As of June 9; retreated from recent highs
• YTD Cumulative Issuance of Local Govt Special BondsRMB 1.59 trillionAs of June 12; accounting for 36.5% of the annual quota
• Port Container Throughput YoY+5.3%Weekly data as of June 8
• Cargo Tonnage of Departing Vessels at Top 20 Ports YoY+5.3%As of June 11
• China Oil Demand Nowcast16.2 mb/dLatest reading; declined from previous period
• Traffic Congestion Index YoY+6.1%As of June 10

Impact & implications

The report focuses primarily on data tracking and does not explicitly articulate specific implications for markets or industries. However, observable structural characteristics of the Chinese economy in mid-2026 include: continued weakness in the new home market versus relative resilience in the second-hand market; a notable YoY decline in auto consumption (including NEVs), signaling weak household appetite for big-ticket items; marginal softening on the production side (steel, coal); and sustained but moderate positive growth in foreign trade-related port activities. On the policy front, the pace of local government special bond issuance (36.5%) suggests ample room for further issuance later in the year, while the weakening counter-cyclical factor hints that RMB depreciation pressures may have eased somewhat.

What to watch

• Trends in energy prices (especially oil) and their further impact on China's economic activity
• Marginal changes in new and second-hand home transaction volumes
• Whether the pace of local government special bond issuance accelerates
• RMB exchange rate trends and changes in the counter-cyclical factor