Global liquidity in US refined products explains the dislocation between oil and product prices, and high crack spreads may persist for several quarters
AI summary card
Global liquidity in US refined products explains the dislocation between oil and product prices, and high crack spreads may persist for several quarters
Bernstein believes that US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices are deeply embedded in global trade flows, and that government releases of crude reserves cannot directly push down refined product prices, so high crack spreads benefit refiners and XOM and CVX, which have relatively high refining exposure.
- In the past month, more than 2 mln bpd of gasoline-related products moved into and out of the United States, diesel was close to 2 mln bpd, and jet fuel was about 0.4 mln bpd.
- Relative to domestic refinery output, the shares of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel moving were about 24%, 35%, and 20%, respectively, showing that domestic prices are unlikely to decouple from global prices.
- For PADD-1 East Coast, global diesel flows are equivalent to 100% of local refining volumes, while for PADD-3 Gulf Coast, the corresponding ratios for gasoline and diesel are about 80% and 40%.
- The report says the current combined oil price plus crack spread is about $155/bbl; when it was previously near $180/bbl, the risk of demand destruction would rise significantly.
- The report believes large refiners VLO, MPC, and PSX benefit; within coverage, XOM has the highest refining exposure, followed by CVX.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report focuses on US refined product imports and exports and regional PADD flows to explain why crude oil prices and refined product prices such as gasoline and diesel remain disconnected in an environment of high crack spreads. The core view is that the US refined product market is deeply tied to global flows, and while the government can release strategic crude reserves to influence crude input prices, it lacks equivalent tools to directly depress refined product prices.
Core views
The report argues that high crack spreads are jointly driven by three factors: underlying demand for refined products remains strong, strategic reserve releases artificially depress crude input prices, and conflicts related to the Strait of Hormuz and Russia disrupt global refined product flows. As long as the global economy does not deteriorate materially, strategic reserve releases end, and there is no clear resolution to the conflicts, crack spreads could remain elevated for several quarters.
Analysis framework
The report first uses overall US supply-demand and import-export data to measure cross-border flows of crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, then breaks down refining and refined product flows across US regions by PADD, and finally combines 321 crack spreads, historical peak cases, and policy feasibility assessments to evaluate the investment implications.
Methodology notes
Measures refining profits and product price pressure using the spread between refined product prices and crude oil prices.
The report cites 321 crack spreads delivered to NY Harbor in the US, showing that the crude price implied by refined products had previously been above $90/bbl, much higher than spot crude prices.
Divides US regional refining and refined product flows by Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts.
The report compares local refining volumes with global or interregional flow volumes across PADD-1, PADD-3, PADD-5, and inland PADD-2 and PADD-4 to assess the degree of linkage between regional prices and global prices.
Distinguishes the impact of government crude reserve releases on crude prices from their limited impact on refined product prices.
The report argues that the US has no tool comparable to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to directly release refined product supply, and that subsidies, export bans, or price caps are either too small in scale, too costly, or distort incentives.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- XOMThe integrated oil and gas company with the greatest refining exposure within coverage, rated Outperform.
- Strengths
- Benefits from both high oil prices and high crack spreads, with relatively higher refining exposure.
- Weaknesses
- Still exposed to the global economy, oil prices, and the refined product demand cycle.
- Comparison
- The report states that XOM has greater refining exposure than CVX.
- Risks
- If demand destruction or the restoration of refined product flows causes crack spreads to fall, the benefit would weaken.
- CVXAn integrated oil and gas company within coverage, rated Market-Perform.
- Strengths
- Can benefit from high oil prices and high crack spreads.
- Weaknesses
- Has lower refining exposure than XOM.
- Comparison
- The report says its refining benefit ranks behind XOM.
- Risks
- Falling crack spreads, policy intervention, or worsening global demand could all pressure earnings.
- VLO, MPC, PSXThe report says large refiners outside coverage benefit from high crack spreads.
- Strengths
- Their business models are more directly exposed to refining spreads.
- Weaknesses
- The report does not provide coverage ratings or target prices.
- Comparison
- Compared with integrated oil and gas companies, pure refiners are usually more sensitive to crack spreads.
- Risks
- High product prices could cause demand destruction, or spreads could narrow after disrupted refined product flows are restored.
- Crude oil and refined productsThe commodity price relationship at the core of the report's discussion.
- Strengths
- Refined product demand and tight global flows support product prices.
- Weaknesses
- Crude prices are depressed by factors such as strategic reserve releases, causing a disconnect from refined product prices.
- Comparison
- Refined product prices are more directly affected by disruptions to global product flows, while crude prices are more clearly influenced by inventory policy.
- Risks
- A weakening global economy would reduce demand; easing conflicts or supply chain recovery would alter the spread structure.
- Gas stations and fuel retailersThe report believes fuel retailers are price takers in refined product pricing.
- Strengths
- Can earn complementary gross profit through convenience store merchandise and services.
- Weaknesses
- Fuel procurement prices are determined by the market, and the example of fuel gross profit being insufficient to cover operating costs is used to illustrate their limited pricing power.
- Comparison
- Compared with refiners, fuel retailers do not directly benefit from high crack spreads.
- Risks
- High fuel prices may suppress consumer traffic and increase policy pressure.
Key data
- Combined oil price plus crack spreadabout $155/bblThe report says demand destruction risk would emerge when this was previously near $180/bbl.
- US liquids hydrocarbon production23 mln bpdIncludes NGLs, crude oil, and biofuels.
- US liquids hydrocarbon exports9 mln bpdThe US exports large volumes of light products while importing heavier crude oil.
- US foreign crude imports6 mln bpdHeavier crude is better suited to the US refining system.
- Gasoline-related products moving into and out of the United Statesmore than 2 mln bpdIncludes finished gasoline, blending components, and unfinished oils.
- Diesel-related products moving into and out of the United Statesclose to 2 mln bpdShows that diesel prices are highly linked to global markets.
- Jet fuel moving into and out of the United States0.4 mln bpdEquivalent to about 20% of US jet fuel refining output.
- Share of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel flow volumes relative to domestic refining volumes24%, 35%, 20%The report believes that disconnecting US domestic prices from global prices would require a large-scale restructuring of global hydrocarbon flows.
- PADD-1 gasoline and diesel global flow ratios10%, 100%PADD-1 is the physical delivery pricing region for Nymex gasoline and diesel.
- PADD-3 gasoline and diesel global flow ratios80%, 40%PADD-3 is home to the largest refining cluster in the United States.
- PADD-5 gasoline and diesel global flow ratios25%, 35%Corresponds to the US West Coast region.
- Alimentation Couche-Tard fuel revenue and gross profit$56.2 bln revenue, $7.3 bln gross profitThe report uses an uncovered company example to show that gas stations are price takers, with fuel gross profit below $7.5 bln in operating costs.
Impact & implications
In investment terms, the report argues that continued releases of strategic crude reserves by OECD governments alone cannot solve the refined product price issue; the true clearing path is either higher prices causing demand destruction or the restoration of disrupted refining and product flows. High crack spreads benefit large refiners and integrated oil and gas companies with higher refining exposure.
Risks
- A deterioration in the global economy would weaken refined product demand, making high crack spreads difficult to sustain.
- If conflicts related to the Strait of Hormuz or Russia ease, spreads could fall after disrupted refined product flows are restored.
- The end of strategic reserve releases could push up crude input prices and alter the mix of oil and product prices.
- If the oil price plus crack spread approaches or exceeds $180/bbl, the risk of demand destruction may rise.
- Policy interventions such as export bans, price caps, or subsidies could distort refinery operations and market flows.
What to watch
- Whether the combined oil price plus crack spread continues to move toward $180/bbl.
- US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel import and export volumes and their shares of domestic refining output.
- Regional flows in PADD-1, PADD-3, and PADD-5, and Nymex delivery-related price pressures.
- Whether strategic crude reserve releases end or are extended.
- Whether disruptions to refined product flows related to the Strait of Hormuz and Russia persist.
- The earnings sensitivity of XOM, CVX, and large refiners VLO, MPC, and PSX to high crack spreads.