Miniso 4Q25 revenue beats expectations; IP, product, and channel upgrades support high-quality growth
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Miniso 4Q25 revenue beats expectations; IP, product, and channel upgrades support high-quality growth
Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Miniso, believing that despite near-term margin pressure from product mix and directly operated store investment, the company's growth potential from replicating its successful model across China, North America, and overseas markets remains undervalued.
- 4Q25 total sales grew 33% YoY to RMB6.25 billion, above Goldman Sachs' forecast and company guidance, mainly driven by an upside surprise in Miniso China.
- Management expects revenue to grow at a high-teens percentage YoY in 2026, with net store openings of 510-550, and same-store sales in both China and North America are likely to return to positive growth.
- IP, product mix, and store experience are the core growth drivers; in-house IP Yoyo's 2026 sales are expected to reach RMB800 million-1 billion.
- Goldman Sachs cut its 2026-27E adjusted net profit forecasts by 6%-8% and lowered the target price to US$21.3/HK$42, while maintaining a Buy rating.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report is Goldman Sachs' review of Miniso's 4Q25 earnings. The company's 4Q25 revenue came in better than expected, adjusted operating profit was slightly below Goldman Sachs' forecast, and adjusted net profit beat expectations thanks to lower financing costs and taxes, but reported net profit was below expectations due to Yonghui-related losses and fair value changes in Top Toy's strategic financing redemption liability. Looking ahead to 2026, management expects revenue to maintain high-teens growth, with store expansion, same-store sales recovery, IP products, and overseas replication as the main drivers.
Core views
Goldman Sachs' core view is that Miniso still has solid growth and globalization expansion potential, and its current roughly 10x 2026E P/E does not fully reflect its growth outlook. The China market will benefit from larger store formats, store upgrades, and IP products; the North American market has strong same-store sales momentum and margin improvement potential; while overseas distribution markets face short-term pressure in ASEAN and Mexico, multi-market deployment helps diversify single-market risk. Short-term pressure mainly comes from product mix, pricing strategy, investments in directly operated markets, and rising expense ratios.
Analysis framework
The report combines actual 4Q25 results with Goldman Sachs forecasts, company guidance, and management's earnings call outlook to assess revenue growth, same-store sales, store expansion, gross margin, expense ratio, operating profit, and net profit performance, and uses 2026-28E financial forecasts, P/E valuation, and target-price methodology to judge the potential return.
Methodology notes
The target price is based on a 15x 2026E P/E multiple
Goldman Sachs lowered its 12-month target price to US$21.3/ADR and HK$42/H-share, based on 15x 2026E P/E, down from the previous 17x, reflecting market sentiment and short-term margin compression pressure.
Growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors
Goldman Sachs' factor framework compares a stock's growth, financial returns, and valuation multiples with the market and industry peers to supplement the investment backdrop analysis.
M&A probability score
Miniso's M&A Rank is 3, indicating a relatively low probability of being acquired, and it is usually not included in the target price.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- MNSO.USCore coverage name, Miniso ADR
- Strengths
- Revenue growth beat expectations, IP and larger store formats drive same-store sales, significant global expansion room, valuation at roughly 10x 2026E P/E.
- Weaknesses
- Product mix and pricing strategy compress gross margin, rapid growth in directly operated markets creates expense pressure, and reported net profit is affected by Yonghui and Top Toy-related items.
- Comparison
- Versus Goldman Sachs' forecast, 4Q25 revenue and adjusted net profit were better than expected, while adjusted operating profit was slightly below expectations; versus the current share price, the target price implies 38.8% upside.
- Risks
- Declining store efficiency in China, slower-than-expected recovery in global same-store sales and store openings, geopolitical risks, higher-than-expected expenses, and Yonghui performance.
- 9896.HKThe H-share listing of the same company
- Strengths
- Shares the same fundamentals as the ADR, with a HK$42 target price implying 36.5% upside.
- Weaknesses
- Affected by the same margin pressure, expense investment, and external market uncertainties.
- Comparison
- Current H-share price HK$30.76, target price HK$42; current ADR price US$15.35, target price US$21.3.
- Risks
- Same as MNSO.US, including store efficiency, overseas expansion, cost investment, and Yonghui-related earnings volatility.
Key data
- 4Q25 salesRmb6.25bn, +33% yoyAbove Goldman Sachs' forecast of Rmb6.12bn and the 25%-30% yoy growth guidance.
- 4Q25 adjusted operating profitRmb1.06bn2% below Goldman Sachs' forecast, mainly due to an SG&A ratio above expectations.
- 4Q25 adjusted net profitRmb823mn3% above Goldman Sachs' forecast, benefiting from lower financing costs and taxes.
- 4Q25 gross margin46.4%Slightly above Goldman Sachs' forecast of 46.2%, but below 4Q24's 47.0%.
- 2026 revenue guidancehigh-teens% yoy growthManagement expects group same-store sales to turn positive and plans to add 510-550 net stores.
- 2026 net store opening plan510-550 storesAbout 120 in Miniso China and about 350 overseas.
- Yoyo 2026 sales potentialRmb0.8bn-1.0bnOf which about Rmb600mn in China and about Rmb200mn-400mn overseas.
- 2026E P/E10.4xThe report believes the current valuation does not fully reflect the growth outlook.
- Target priceUS$21.3 per ADR / HK$42 per H-sharePreviously US$25/HK$49, while maintaining Buy.
Impact & implications
The report's investment implication for Miniso is broadly positive: revenue growth, IP monetization, and global store expansion support medium-term growth, but near-term profit forecasts have been lowered, indicating that the market should pay attention to the pace of gross margin, expense investment, and margin improvement in directly operated markets. If same-store sales in China and North America remain strong, overseas replication proceeds smoothly, and IP products scale up, the company's valuation re-rating potential remains substantial.
Risks
- Intensifying competition in China, slower product innovation, or quality issues may lead to weaker store efficiency and affect retail partner expansion willingness.
- Recovery in global same-store sales and store expansion may fall short of expectations.
- Geopolitical risks may affect overseas operations and supply chains.
- OPEX and additional investments may be higher than expected, weighing on near-term margins.
- Yonghui-related performance or investment gains/losses may continue to affect reported net profit.
- Overseas distribution markets such as ASEAN and Mexico still face short-term pressure.
What to watch
- Whether 1Q26 revenue can grow at least 25% YoY.
- Whether China same-store sales in 1Q26 reach high-single-digit growth, and North America reaches mid-to-high-teens growth.
- The execution pace of the 510-550 net store openings in 2026, especially about 120 in China and about 350 overseas.
- Whether larger store formats and store upgrades can continue to improve foot traffic, conversion rates, average ticket size, and same-store sales.
- Whether Yoyo and other in-house IP sales can reach the Rmb0.8bn-1.0bn target.
- Whether operating margin in the U.S. directly operated market can improve by low-single-digit percentage points.
- Same-store sales and margin inflection points in overseas markets such as ASEAN, Mexico, and Europe.
- The impact of Yonghui-related losses and Top Toy financing-related fair value changes on reported profit.