SNEC 2026 Observations: Energy Storage and AIDC Lead, PV Core Business Under Pressure

Overview

This research report summarizes HSBC's on-site survey of the 2026 Shanghai SNEC PV Expo. The report covers six major sectors: space-based solar, PV equipment, residential solar-storage, AIDC computing power supply, the main PV industrial chain, and energy storage. Core conclusions indicate that industry hotspots are shifting from pure PV manufacturing to "PV-storage integration" and "computing-energy synergy": residential energy storage and AIDC power integration are currently the most watched growth narratives, while the traditional PV supply chain remains in a phase of bottoming out prices and capacity clearing, with corporate strategic focus shifting to upgrading existing production lines and technological cost reduction.

Core views

Residential energy storage and AIDC power supplies were the biggest highlights of the exhibition. The residential energy storage area had the highest foot traffic; hardware homogenization has shifted competition dimensions to channels, certifications, and software services. AI energy management (e.g., electricity price arbitrage, virtual power plants) has evolved from a value-added option to a baseline configuration, accelerating the adoption of all-in-one products. In the AIDC sector, "green power for computing" has become an ecological focal point. Solid State Transformers (SST) have emerged as a new technical battleground due to their compatibility with DC-coupled data center architectures, but actual deployment pace is expected to be slow due to limitations in full lifecycle economic validation. PV equipment and the supply chain show distinct characteristics of "stock optimization." With cumulative TOPCon capacity exceeding 800GW, equipment demand has shifted from new builds to technology upgrades driven by retrofits. Typical upgrade package investments are around RMB 30 million/GW, capable of boosting module power from 620W to 650W+. In contrast, the atmosphere in traditional supply chain links is dull. Mainstream utility-scale module prices remain at RMB 0.69-0.75/W, with capacity utilization rates generally below 50%. Facing cost pressures from rising silver prices, silver reduction and copper-based metallization are seen as key levers for cost savings, but they are currently only in single-GW pilot stages, requiring time for scaling. Space-based solar and export markets exhibit long-cycle and policy-sensitive characteristics. Although space-based solar was showcased as a flagship by some exhibitors, with technical routes evolving from gallium arsenide to silicon-based tandem structures, lightweight flexible packaging materials (such as SCPI films) becoming key differentiators, substantial commercial orders are not expected until around 2027 due to multiple rounds of orbital verification cycles. Regarding exports, companies generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, strictly following domestic regulatory guidelines and denying the use of Southeast Asian transshipment to bypass restrictions. Export destinations are rebalancing from parts of Southeast Asia affected by trade measures to markets in the Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey. Internal structural differentiation within the energy storage sector is significant. C&I energy storage is viewed as a high-growth niche, with improvements in shipment stability and project reserves. Meanwhile, competition in large-scale storage is more intense, with price wars forcing some participants to turn to overseas or niche markets. Against the backdrop of fluctuating battery raw material costs, pricing discipline and cost transmission capabilities have become core operational differentiators for protecting profit margins.

Analysis framework

The report adopts a typical "grassroots exhibition survey" methodology. The analyst team conducted cross-validation through on-site visits to SNEC 2026, engaging with exhibiting company managements, industry experts, and investors. The analytical logic does not rely on a single financial model but qualitatively judges the inflection points in prosperity and the pace of technological iteration in various sub-sectors by observing booth traffic heat, directions of new product launches, changes in management rhetoric, and feedback from upstream and downstream industries. For example, market attention shifts are identified by comparing foot traffic density across different exhibition areas, while industrial maturity is judged by asking companies about implementation timelines for specific technologies (such as SST, copper metallization), thereby constructing a forward-looking micro-industry landscape compared to macro data.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkPenetration Rate S-Curve

  Commercial Validation Cycle for New Technologies

  When evaluating space-based solar and AIDC solid-state transformers, the report focuses on which stage of the S-curve they are in. For early-stage technologies, institutions look beyond technical parameters, placing greater emphasis on key nodes for crossing the chasm, such as 'multiple verification cycles' and 'full lifecycle economic proof,' to judge the true timing of order explosions rather than relying solely on conceptual hype.

• Competition and Strategy FrameworkMoat / competitive advantage

  Shift in Competitive Elements After Hardware Homogenization

  When residential energy storage hardware enters the commoditization stage, the report points out that competitive barriers have shifted from the product itself to 'channels, certifications, delivery, and software services.' This is a classic paradigm in manufacturing analysis: when technical thresholds lower, sources of excess returns inevitably shift to non-manufacturing links (brand, service, ecosystem).

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkCost curve analysis

  Retrofitting Existing Capacity vs. New Capacity

  In the PV equipment sector, the report judges the drivers of the equipment cycle by comparing 'new line CAPEX' with 'old line retrofit costs' and efficiency improvement magnitudes. When existing stock is huge and the marginal benefit of new builds diminishes, the industry's capital expenditure logic switches from 'expansion' to 'efficiency improvement and cost reduction,' which is a key signal for identifying valuation reshaping of cyclical stocks.

Key data

• Cumulative TOPCon Capacity>800GWHuge existing scale driving equipment demand towards upgrades and retrofits
• TOPCon Retrofit InvestmentApprox. RMB 30 million/GWCan boost module power from 620W to 650W+
• New TOPCon Equipment InvestmentRMB 120-140 million/GWReference benchmark for new line capital expenditure
• BC Cell Equipment Investment<RMB 200 million/GWEquipment value accounts for approx. 40-50% of the entire line
• Mainstream Utility-Scale Module PricesRMB 0.69-0.75/WPrices remain under pressure; low-price orders concentrated in early year
• Distributed/Overseas Module PricesRMB 0.85-1.00/WSignificant premium in segmented markets
• Cost Reduction Potential Amid High Silver PricesRMB 0.03-0.05/WAchieved through silver reduction/copper metallization based on silver price of RMB 18,000-19,000/kg
• Industry Capacity Utilization Rate≤50%Reflecting that capacity clearing is still ongoing
• Space-Based Solar Target Efficiency>30%Significant improvement compared to current silicon-based space cells at approx. 20%

Impact & implications

The report believes that the investment logic for the PV industry is undergoing structural changes. For equipment manufacturers, short-term performance support comes from the massive demand for retrofitting existing TOPCon lines, rather than new orders. For module and cell manufacturers, under the dual squeeze of high silver prices and price wars, the ability to mass-produce cost-saving technologies like copper metallization first will become a survival watershed. Meanwhile, although energy storage and AIDC power integration serve as a second growth curve with broad prospects, the competitive landscape is not yet fixed. Companies with hardware-software integration capabilities and overseas channel advantages are more likely to win in this round of reshuffling. Furthermore, compliance with export policies has become a hard constraint on business operations, and market expansion must adapt to the new normal of geopolitics.

Risks

• Uncertainty in the enforcement intensity and interpretation of export control policies
• Continued rise in silver prices leading to incomplete cost transmission downstream
• Commercialization validation of new technologies (SST, copper metallization) falling short of expectations
• Intensified price competition in the energy storage market eroding profits
• Failure of orbital verification or delayed orders for space-based solar

What to watch

• Official announcements and enforcement dynamics of domestic PV export regulatory policies
• Progress of single-GW pilots and expansion pace of copper-based metallization technology
• Measured full lifecycle economic data for AIDC solid-state transformer products
• Shipment stability and pipeline conversion rates for C&I energy storage projects
• Feedback results from multiple rounds of orbital testing for space-based solar