ANTA continues to outperform peers amid industry slowdown; Nomura maintains Buy

Overview

This report covers ANTA Sports Products (2020.HK). Nomura notes that amid slowing sales momentum in the sportswear industry and intensifying competition across sub-segments, ANTA's 2Q26 operating data still demonstrated strong resilience. Although the target price was lowered due to a decline in sector valuations, ANTA is still viewed as a preferred name in the sportswear sector.

Core views

The core views are: first, ANTA's sales momentum slowed in 2Q26 versus prior periods, but it still outperformed the industry and peers; second, the multi-brand strategy continues to work, with other brands maintaining high growth, while DESCENTE and KOLON benefit from exposure to training and outdoor categories; third, the core ANTA brand is defending its mass-market share through product and channel adjustments, and online sales achieved double-digit year-on-year growth in 2Q26; fourth, the valuation cut mainly reflects a broad sector derating rather than downward revisions to earnings forecasts.

Analysis framework

The report uses company operating data, brand segment sales trends, peer valuation comparisons, and a forward P/E valuation framework for analysis. Nomura keeps its FY26F full-year revenue and earnings forecasts unchanged, but lowers its target F12M P/E to 17.5x, deriving a target price of HKD89.90.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsF12M P/E multiple

  Forward 12-month price-to-earnings valuation

  The target price is based on 17.5x F12M P/E, reflecting ANTA's leading position and stable growth trajectory in China's sportswear industry; this multiple represents a 35% premium to Li Ning's F12M P/E.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• ANTA Sports Products (2020.HK)

  The core subject covered by this report

  Strengths

  Multi-brand portfolio, industry-leading position, high growth from other brands, effective operational adjustments, attractive valuation.

  Weaknesses

  Sales growth of the core ANTA brand and FILA slowed to low single digits in 2Q26, while overall industry sales momentum weakened.

  Comparison

  The report views ANTA as a preferred name in the sportswear sector and assigns it a 35% premium to Li Ning on an F12M P/E basis.

  Risks

  Intensifying domestic and international competition, sales growth below expectations, and weaker-than-expected macroeconomic momentum.

• Li Ning (2331HK)

  Peer company used as a valuation reference

  Strengths

  The report also discloses its Neutral rating and HKD16.00 target price.

  Weaknesses

  Operating efficiency and the macro environment are potential downside risks.

  Comparison

  ANTA's target F12M P/E is 17.5x, representing a 35% premium to Li Ning's F12M P/E.

  Risks

  Weaker-than-expected recovery in basketball and athleisure segments, underperformance in lower-tier cities, and a weak macro environment.

Key data

• 2Q26 core ANTA brand saleslow-single-digit year-on-year growthSales momentum slowed, but still supported relative resilience versus the industry.
• 2Q26 FILA saleslow-single-digit year-on-year growthSimilar to the core ANTA brand, growth slowed versus earlier periods but remained solid.
• 2Q26 other brands sales25-30% year-on-year growthOther brands remained the group's growth highlight.
• 1H26 brand sales progressCore ANTA brand/FILA/other brands grew by mid-single digits/mid-single digits/35-40% year-on-year, respectivelyThe report believes full-year sales targets remain on track.
• FY26F revenue forecastCNY86,594mnNomura maintained its full-year revenue forecast unchanged.
• FY26F normalised net profit forecastCNY12,416mnNomura maintained its earnings forecast unchanged.
• FY26F FD normalised EPSCNY4.47Equivalent to about 15.1x FY26F normalised P/E.
• Target priceHKD89.90Lowered from HKD125.00.
• Current priceHKD74.15As of the close on 2026-07-17.
• Implied upside+21.2%Calculated from the target price and current price.

Impact & implications

The investment implication conveyed by the report is that ANTA remains pressured in the short term by slowing industry demand and intensifying competition, leading to a lower valuation multiple; however, its multi-brand portfolio, structural growth opportunities, operational adjustments, and relative outperformance versus peers mean it still offers defensiveness and medium- to long-term appeal within the sportswear sector.

Risks

• Intensifying competition among domestic and global sportswear players.
• Sales growth below expectations.
• Weaker-than-expected macroeconomic momentum.
• Further sector valuation compression could weigh on the target price and share performance.

What to watch

• Execution effectiveness following the CEO change at the core ANTA brand.
• Sales conversion from the repositioning of ANTA SV/Super ANTA stores and the ANTA Market large-store format.
• Progress of new Jack Wolfskin store and product rollouts.
• Sustainability of growth for DESCENTE and KOLON in training and outdoor categories.
• Whether brand segment sales in 2H26 continue to stay on track for full-year targets.
• Competitive intensity in the sportswear industry and the recovery of consumer demand.