Shipping Through the Strait of Hormuz Near Standstill; Iranian Crude Exports Plunge

Overview

This UBS data-tracking report focuses on the geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz in early May 2026 and its tangible impact on global oil and gas logistics. The central conclusion is that shipping activity through the Strait has nearly ground to a halt, following the U.S. announcement of ‘Project Freedom’ to protect commercial vessels and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issuing strong threats. Data show that only a handful of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) vessels passed through the Strait over the past three days, Iranian crude export loading collapsed dramatically, while throughput at non-Strait ports remained relatively steady. This development intensifies market concerns about Middle Eastern energy supply disruption.

Core views

Geopolitical tensions have escalated markedly, directly impeding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. President Trump announced on May 4 the deployment of neutral vessels out of the Persian Gulf—a move he termed a 'humanitarian gesture' intended to restore freedom of navigation. In response, Iran reiterated it would target any vessel entering the Strait without authorization and claimed its missiles struck a U.S. warship (a claim denied by the U.S.). Against this backdrop, two vessels reported attacks inside the Strait within the past 24 hours—including one operated by ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company). Shipping data confirm severe logistical disruption. According to UBS Evidence Lab, oil and gas tanker transit through the Strait over the past three days has been extremely limited—only four LPG carriers were recorded. Average daily oil tanker transits in May stood slightly above one vessel—far below April’s 3.0 and February’s near-50 vessels. In contrast, traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains within normal ranges, indicating the disruption is concentrated specifically at the Persian Gulf’s exit chokepoint. Iranian crude exports have suffered severe damage, while alternative routes remain stable. Iranian terminal crude loading has plunged to under 0.3 million barrels per day (<0.3 Mb/d) so far in May, with last week’s average also below 0.8 Mb/d—significantly lower than April’s 1.5 Mb/d and March’s 1.7 Mb/d. Meanwhile, ports outside the Strait—including Yanbu (Saudi Arabia) and Fujairah (UAE)—maintained relatively stable crude loading volumes, averaging 6.0 Mb/d last week, close to the expected 6.5 Mb/d level. This suggests some exports are being rerouted via land pipelines or alternative ports—but not enough to fully offset the loss of Iranian volumes. Regional energy infrastructure faces persistent security threats. The report cites a series of recent attacks on energy assets: on April 8, Iran struck multiple Saudi Aramco refineries (Satorp, Ras Tanura, etc.) and the Manifa and Khurais oil fields, temporarily impairing Saudi capacity; on April 6, Israel struck Iran’s South Pars petrochemical complex; and on March 19, missile strikes hit Qatari LNG facilities and Shell’s Pearl GTL plant, disabling 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity. These incidents signal an expansion of hostilities beyond shipping threats into physical production infrastructure—further amplifying supply risks.

Analysis framework

The firm employed a hybrid methodology combining high-frequency alternative data tracking with event-driven analysis. First, using UBS Evidence Lab’s ‘Daily Maritime Trade Disruption Monitor’ and ‘Global Maritime Trade Monitor,’ the team processed hourly Automatic Identification System (AIS) data to monitor the real-time location, vessel type, and cargo volume of over 35,200 commercial ships globally. This approach delivers more timely insights into logistical bottlenecks and flow changes than traditional customs data. Second, quantitative metrics—such as vessel transits and loading volumes—were triangulated with qualitative inputs from public news reports and official statements (e.g., military operations, attack declarations) to construct a comprehensive geopolitical risk picture. Third, comparative analysis across ports (inside vs. outside the Strait) and time periods (peak February vs. low May) was used to quantify the actual supply-chain impact of the conflict.

Methodology notes

• Industry/sector analysis frameworkSupply-demand framework

  Impact of critical chokepoints on global commodity supply

  The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil transit chokepoints. By monitoring traffic changes at this node, the report directly assesses potential shocks to global crude supply. When a chokepoint is disrupted, effective supply contracts instantly—even if demand remains unchanged—potentially driving up prices or triggering market panic.

• Quantitative/factor/portfolio theory

  AIS (Automatic Identification System) data tracking

  The report uses satellite-based AIS data to track vessel positions and movements in real time. This is a classic alternative data analytics method; compared to traditional monthly export statistics, it delivers higher-frequency, more timely logistical intelligence—enabling investors to anticipate supply disruptions before official data are released.

Key data

• Oil & gas vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz (past 3 days)4 vessels (LPG only)Extremely low—near standstill
• Average daily oil tanker transits in May>1 vesselFar below April’s 3.0 vessels and February’s ~50 vessels
• Iranian crude loading (so far in May)<0.3 Mb/dSharp decline from April’s average of 1.5 Mb/d
• Iranian crude loading (weekly average, past week)<0.8 Mb/dPersistently low
• Loading volume at non-Strait ports (Yanbu + Fujairah)~6.0 Mb/dStable and near expected levels

Impact & implications

The report concludes that shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and the sharp decline in Iranian exports will deliver a direct supply shock to the global crude market. Although Saudi Arabia and the UAE maintain steady export flows via non-Strait ports, the loss of Iranian output—combined with attacks threatening other regional infrastructure (e.g., Qatari LNG, Saudi refineries)—increases uncertainty around global energy supply. Such geopolitical risk premiums may amplify oil price volatility and compel importing nations to seek alternative sources or draw down strategic reserves. For Asian and European buyers reliant on Middle Eastern crude, rising logistics costs and supply-security concerns will be key near-term priorities.

Risks

• Further escalation of geopolitical conflict leading to additional direct strikes on energy infrastructure.
• Prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing a material global crude supply shortage.
• Extreme oil price volatility affecting global inflation expectations and macroeconomic stability.
• Changes in sanctions policy further restricting energy trade flows for specific countries.

What to watch

• The operational effectiveness of the U.S. ‘Project Freedom’ naval escort initiative—and Iran’s response.
• Daily vessel transit counts through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Trends in Iranian crude export volumes going forward.
• Emergence of new attacks targeting critical energy infrastructure (refineries, pipelines, LNG terminals).