March China EV wholesale penetration rose to 48%, and EV export penetration rose to 50.6%

Overview

This report is UBS’s China EV and battery sector monthly report, focusing on EV sales, exports, battery sales, and materials price changes in March 2026, and assessing industry impact in the context of overseas oil price volatility, policy changes, and new model launches. The report notes that March EV insurance registrations, wholesale penetration, and export penetration in China all improved, while high fuel prices in markets such as Europe and Australia have also lifted EV interest and demand.

Core views

The key view is that first, China EV wholesale penetration rose to 48%, with a clear rebound in retail penetration as well, suggesting the sector sales trough may already have passed; second, March EV export penetration rose to 50.6%, and combined with higher BYD visibility and rising overseas EV search interest, China EV export resilience may be stronger than pure seasonality; third, battery and energy storage demand remain at high growth, but rising lithium and cell costs may pressure automaker margins in the short term; fourth, in the medium to long term, oil price volatility strengthens the EV total cost of ownership advantage, and UBS maintains a constructive view on the EV sector.

Analysis framework

The report adopts a monthly sector-monitoring framework, combining CPCA export data, insurance registration data, CABIA battery sales data, SMM lithium salt prices, ICCSINO battery cost and price data, and UBS Evidence Lab search attention data to assess sales, penetration, exports, costs, and stock impacts.

Methodology notes

• Monthly sector monitoringSales and penetration tracking

  Determine EV demand trends through insurance registrations, wholesale penetration, retail penetration, and export penetration.

  The report compares March insurance registrations, wholesale penetration, and export penetration on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis to identify industry demand recovery and the intensity of overseas expansion.

• Cost and price analysisBattery and lithium price tracking

  Assess supply-chain margin pressure through battery sales, installed-base mix, cell costs, pack prices, and battery-grade lithium carbonate prices.

  The report tracks the LFP/NCM mix, major battery supplier shares, LFP and NCM523 cell costs, and battery-grade Li2CO3 prices to judge cost-pass-through risks.

• Alternative dataUBS Evidence Lab attention indicators

  Observe changes in consumer interest in EV brands and models using search and attention data.

  The report cites China auto search monitoring on April 5, noting BYD attention rose 78% versus January and global EV search trends rose 2.5x year-on-year.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BYD-H

  One of UBS’s preferred names, benefiting from improving EV demand, rising export visibility, and strong battery vertical integration.

  Strengths

  Higher brand visibility, strong model lineup, high LFP installed-share, and strong self-supply capability.

  Weaknesses

  Rising raw material costs and overseas policy barriers may affect margins and expansion pace.

  Comparison

  The report says BYD remains one of China’s leading EV exporters, and BYD visibility rose 78% versus January.

  Risks

  Higher lithium prices, changes in overseas subsidies or market-access policies, and price competition.

• CATL-A

  A battery leader preferred by UBS, directly benefiting from power and energy storage battery demand growth.

  Strengths

  Domestic battery share remains 45%, with a leading industry position.

  Weaknesses

  Domestic share declined about 3.6 to 3.7 percentage points month over month in March.

  Comparison

  Compared with BYD’s share gain, CATL’s share fell during the month but it still retains a leading position.

  Risks

  Second-tier battery makers gaining share, volatile raw material costs, and price competition.

• Li Auto

  One of UBS’s preferred EV manufacturers; the report notes L9 replacement cycle order suspensions before model renewal.

  Strengths

  Model cycle-upgrading is expected to improve the next generation of product performance, and management is attempting to smooth supply-demand transition.

  Weaknesses

  Short-term order absorption may be affected by the model transition window.

  Comparison

  Compared with some peers, Li Auto is still listed by UBS as a preferred stock.

  Risks

  Model ramp-up below expectations, range-extended EV demand volatility, and intensified competition.

• Nio

  One of UBS’s preferred EV manufacturers, with the report noting new models equipped with a high-voltage platform, lidar, and battery-swap capability.

  Strengths

  Premium smart features and battery-swap capability provide differentiation.

  Weaknesses

  Competition in the premium segment is intense, with high demands on sales scale and cost control.

  Comparison

  Competes with smart EV models such as Xiaomi SU7 in a high-end EV environment.

  Risks

  New model acceptance, capital expenditure, and price competition.

• GWM-H

  One of UBS’s preferred EV manufacturers, with the report noting that GWM V9X has entered the purchase-tax exemption vehicle list.

  Strengths

  The plug-in hybrid platform and new models help raise new-energy product visibility.

  Weaknesses

  The new-energy brand transformation still needs to prove scalable performance.

  Comparison

  Competes alongside BYD, XPeng, and Nio in large new-energy SUVs.

  Risks

  Model sales below expectations, channel efficiency, and industry price wars.

• Guangzhou Automobile

  A stock UBS remains cautious on.

  Strengths

  Has vehicle manufacturing fundamentals and a new-energy footprint.

  Weaknesses

  Not listed as a preferred name by the report, and may face competition and margin pressure.

  Comparison

  Compared with BYD-H, CATL-A, Li Auto, Nio, and GWM-H, UBS is more cautious.

  Risks

  Demand recovery below expectations, price competition, and rising costs.

• XPeng

  A stock UBS remains cautious on, while noting that XPeng GX has entered the purchase-tax exemption vehicle list.

  Strengths

  Has product highlights in smart features and new models.

  Weaknesses

  The report is cautious on this stock overall.

  Comparison

  Competes in the smart EV market with Xiaomi, Nio, BYD, and others.

  Risks

  New car ramp-up below expectations, intensified competition, and gross margin pressure.

• Leapmotor

  A stock UBS remains cautious on.

  Strengths

  Has a new-energy vehicle product presence.

  Weaknesses

  No positive preference is given in the report.

  Comparison

  Compared with UBS’s preferred headline EV and battery names, risk-return attractiveness appears lower.

  Risks

  Sales, margins, and industry price-war risks.

Key data

• March EV insurance registrations79.8w unitsUp 86% month over month, with the year-on-year decline narrowing to 18%.
• March EV wholesale penetration48.0%Up 0.4 percentage points month over month and up 0.9 percentage points year over year.
• March EV export penetration50.6%Up 2.5 percentage points month over month and up 14 percentage points year over year; March EV exports were approximately 34.9w units.
• March passenger vehicle exports69.0w unitsCPCA methodology, up 76% year over year.
• March power battery sales114.5GWhUp 54% month over month and up 31% year over year.
• March energy storage battery sales60.3GWhUp 56% month over month and up 115% year over year.
• March power battery exports22.3GWhUp 60% year over year.
• March energy storage battery exports13.8GWhUp 52% year over year.
• March total battery output177.7GWhIncludes power and energy storage batteries, up 50% year over year and 25% month over month.
• March LFP installed-share81%Remains elevated, with NCM installed-share at 19%.
• CATL domestic share45%Down about 3.6 to 3.7 percentage points month over month.
• BYD battery share18%Up 4.3 percentage points month over month.
• Battery-grade lithium carbonate priceCNY 166,000/tonAs of April 15, up 4% month over month and up 132% year over year.
• March EV registrations in Europeabout 54.0w unitsBEV and PHEV were up 37% year over year, supported by high fuel prices.

Impact & implications

From an investment perspective, higher and more volatile oil prices improve EV relative total cost of ownership versus internal combustion vehicles, helping China EV exports and overseas demand continue to improve; multiple new model launches before the Beijing Auto Show may also boost market sentiment. On the downside, rising lithium and cell costs may squeeze automaker short-term margins, while overseas policy and geopolitical constraints may raise China automakers’ barriers to internationalization.

Risks

• Raw material prices are rising, especially battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising sharply year over year, which could compress automaker and battery-maker margins.
• Overseas market policy risks are rising, such as Japan adjusting subsidy frameworks and the U.S. considering expanding restrictions on Chinese autos and technology.
• The new-energy auto industry may face overcapacity, price wars, and dilution of market share by new entrants.
• Changes in government new-energy policies or subsidies could affect demand and profitability.
• Conventional auto demand remains affected by macro growth and consumer confidence.

What to watch

• New model launches and order performance around the end of April and the Beijing Auto Show.
• Whether oil price volatility continues to drive EV interest and sales in overseas markets such as Europe and Australia.
• Whether China EV export penetration can stay at elevated levels.
• Whether lithium prices, cell costs, and pack prices continue to rise and pass through to automaker profit margins.
• Share changes among battery manufacturers such as CATL, BYD, CALB, EVE, and Gotion.
• Policy restrictions on Chinese vehicles and auto technology in Japan, the United States, and other overseas markets.