April Swiss watch exports declined year over year, with tariff-driven front-loaded shipments continuing to distort the trend

Overview

The report tracks Swiss watch export data for April 2026 and interprets it in the context of front-loaded U.S. shipments ahead of tariffs, the catch-up in year-over-year comparison bases, recovering Chinese demand, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The core conclusion is that short-term year-over-year trends will likely remain volatile due to tariff distortions, but the gradual recovery in global luxury goods and Swiss watch demand has not been disproven.

Core views

The year-over-year decline in April exports is not primarily a single demand cliff, but rather a pullback after the high base created by pre-tariff U.S. shipping in April 2025. U.S. exports fell sharply year over year, but were still up versus 2024, indicating demand resilience remains intact; Greater China improved year over year mainly because of a low base, while actual levels remain below 2024. Strong growth in France may reflect re-exports rather than domestic demand, while weakness in the Middle East suggests geopolitical conflict could weigh on recovery through tourism, oil prices, inflation, and confidence channels.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses Swiss watch export breakdowns by region, price band, and material to distinguish genuine demand changes from comparison-base distortions, and combines this with commentary on luxury companies and portfolio preferences to form a defensive allocation recommendation for the global luxury sector.

Methodology notes

• Industry cycle trackingSwiss watch export year-over-year analysis

  Observe high-end consumer demand and channel inventory changes through export value and destination changes.

  The report compares April 2026, 1Q26, the same period in 2025, and 2024 levels to avoid a purely year-over-year view being distorted by tariff-driven front-loaded shipments.

• Base effect analysisPre-tariff shipment comparison base

  Advance shipments before U.S. tariffs took effect raised the 2025 comparison base, making 2026 year-over-year data appear weaker.

  The report believes year-over-year comparisons around July and August may continue to fluctuate, so trends versus 2024 should also be monitored.

• Portfolio strategyDefensive screening for high-quality and self-help names

  When demand recovery is uncertain, prioritize luxury companies with higher quality, reasonable valuations, or clearer self-improvement paths.

  The report favors Richemont and Brunello Cucinelli, while also classifying LVMH, Burberry, and Ferragamo as names with varying degrees of self-help or improvement potential.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Global luxury goods/Swiss watch sector

  Core industry under observation

  Strengths

  The U.S. is still growing versus 2024, China is showing gradual improvement, and the sector still shows signs of a progressive recovery.

  Weaknesses

  April export growth fell sharply year over year, and short-term data are heavily distorted by pre-tariff shipments and a high base.

  Comparison

  U.S. exports were -56.4% year over year versus 2025, but +8.9% versus April 2024; Greater China grew year over year but remained about 15% below 2024.

  Risks

  Middle East conflict, reduced travel, rising oil prices and inflation, and weakening consumer confidence could threaten the early recovery.

• Cie Financiere Richemont SA

  The report's preferred high-quality core name

  Strengths

  Strong jewelry momentum and a prominent industry leadership position.

  Weaknesses

  The report emphasizes that even high-quality names need to be in a reasonable valuation range.

  Comparison

  Listed as a top pick for defensive high-quality exposure.

  Risks

  Uncertain recovery in global luxury demand and volatility in watch exports may affect market sentiment.

• Brunello Cucinelli

  A high-quality name preferred by the report

  Strengths

  Has quality attributes and potential mean-reversion upside.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide specific financial or valuation data to support the view.

  Comparison

  Named alongside Richemont as a preferred quality name.

  Risks

  If luxury demand recovery slows, valuation and brand momentum may come under pressure.

• LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE

  A name between high-quality and self-help

  Strengths

  Supported by Dior's revival, better cost efficiency, and the strength of Louis Vuitton.

  Weaknesses

  There are still concerns around the W&S business transformation and the Arnault family succession process.

  Comparison

  The report believes it is not purely a high-quality exposure, but also includes a self-improvement angle.

  Risks

  Transformation execution, succession uncertainty, and global demand volatility.

• Burberry Group PLC

  A self-help turnaround name

  Strengths

  Improvement in brand momentum and full-price sales after one year of the Burberry Forward strategy.

  Weaknesses

  The next phase requires further improvement in store productivity and extending momentum beyond outerwear and scarves.

  Comparison

  The report believes its transformation is progressing according to plan.

  Risks

  Sustainability of brand recovery, store efficiency improvement, and execution risk in category expansion.

• Salvatore Ferragamo SpA

  An early-stage self-help name

  Strengths

  Management is addressing key issues including brand, product mix, and retail network.

  Weaknesses

  It is still at an earlier stage, with trading positioned at the low end of the range.

  Comparison

  Compared with Burberry, its improvement path is earlier stage and less certain.

  Risks

  Transformation delivery slower than expected, brand reshaping, and retail network adjustment risks.

Key data

• Swiss watch exports-16.6% year over year in April 2026The number of working days was the same as in April 2025; the decline widened versus the calendar-adjusted -6% in March 2026.
• U.S. exports-56.4% year over year; +8.9% versus April 2024The sharp year-over-year decline mainly reflects the high base created by pre-tariff shipments in April 2025.
• Greater China exportsHong Kong, China +13.5%; Mainland China +17.1%The double-digit year-over-year growth in April was mainly supported by a low base and remained about 15% below 2024 levels.
• France exports+46.3% year over yearThe report believes this may reflect re-exports to other destinations more than a meaningful improvement in domestic demand.
• Middle East exportsUAE -9.5%; Saudi Arabia -17.3%; Qatar -12.0%The report links this to the impact of ongoing regional conflict.
• Performance by price bandCHF 200-500 +7.7%; above CHF 3,000 -19.0%; below CHF 200 -14.3%; CHF 500-3,000 -12.2%The divergence across price bands was mainly driven by different comparison bases.
• Performance by materialOther metals +10.0%; precious metals -24.3%; other materials -18.3%; steel -18.1%; two-tone metals -9.8%Other metals were supported by a lower base, while precious metals faced a higher comparison base.

Impact & implications

For investment purposes, the report does not interpret April's year-over-year decline as evidence that the sector recovery has failed, but rather highlights the noise created by tariffs and comparison bases. In this environment, sector allocation should avoid chasing short-term volatility and instead lean toward companies with higher quality, clearer brand momentum, or more verifiable self-help paths.

Risks

• U.S. tariff policy and front-loaded shipments may continue to distort year-over-year data, potentially causing the market to misread actual demand.
• If Middle East conflict persists, it may drag on luxury demand through reduced tourism, higher oil prices, inflation, and weaker consumer confidence.
• Year-over-year improvement in Greater China mainly reflects a low base and remains about 15% below 2024, so the true strength of the recovery still needs verification.
• Strong French exports may reflect re-exports rather than domestic demand, and misreading this could overestimate end-consumption.
• Short-term investors going long or short the sector may amplify price swings beyond those implied by the natural news flow.

What to watch

• July and August U.S. export year-over-year data, to see whether the comparison-base impact from pre-tariff shipments continues to distort trends.
• Whether U.S. consumers continue to absorb tariff-related price increases, and the subsequent impact of those price hikes on volumes.
• Trends in Hong Kong, China and Mainland China versus 2024, rather than only year-over-year growth off a low base.
• How conflict, tourism flows, oil prices, and inflation in the Middle East transmit into high-end consumption.
• Richemont's jewelry momentum, improvements at Dior and W&S at LVMH, Burberry's store productivity, and Ferragamo's early-stage turnaround progress.