April China power transformer exports rose 27% YoY, while switchgear exports rebounded sharply

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' monthly data tracker on Chinese power grid technology exports, with a focus on export performance for power transformers, switchgear, and related categories through April 2026. The report argues that U.S. power transformer prices remain elevated, Chinese exports to the U.S. remain strong, and global supply tightness persists, leaving Chinese power equipment suppliers with continued room to participate in overseas demand.

Core views

The key takeaways are: first, exports of China's >10MVA transformers continue to grow, but April's 27% YoY growth slowed from 56% in March; second, exports to the U.S. remain a bright spot, rising 95% YoY in April; third, switchgear exports improved sharply, rising 77% YoY in April; fourth, although the gap between U.S. domestic demand and supply for power transformers is expected to narrow to 60% by 2028E, shortages remain sufficient to support opportunities for nontraditional suppliers; fifth, among the relevant Chinese names, the report is more positive on Sieyuan Electric and NARI Technology, while remaining Neutral on Huaming.

Analysis framework

The report assesses demand strength, price trends, and company beneficiaries by decomposing export amounts, export destinations, capacity segments, U.S. PPI, export prices, raw material prices, and regional contributions. The analysis is not centered on a single company's financial forecast; instead, it uses China customs export data, U.S. price indices, and the global supply-demand gap to validate the export cycle for power equipment.

Methodology notes

• Export data trackingPower transformer export tracking

  Break down China's >10MVA transformer export value by capacity, region, and destination.

  The report compares April and March YoY growth rates, and further splits contributions from Africa, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America to identify the sources of export demand.

• Price trackingComparison of U.S. PPI and Chinese export prices

  Use U.S. domestic PPI and China's export prices to the U.S. to gauge supply-demand tightness and price pass-through.

  U.S. transformer PPI remained elevated after surging in 2021-2022; the export price of China's 220-330MVA transformers to the U.S. fell 14% YoY in April on a single-month basis, but the three-month rolling average for February-April rose 23% YoY.

• Supply-demand gap analysisU.S. power transformer demand and domestic supply gap

  Estimate the gap between U.S. power transformer demand and domestic supply.

  Goldman Sachs expects this gap to narrow from the current 72% to 60% by 2028E, but it will still remain elevated, leaving room for overseas suppliers to enter.

• Equity screeningGS Factor Profile and investment rating framework

  Combine growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite scores, and express relative return potential through Buy, Neutral, and Sell.

  The report's disclosure section explains Goldman Sachs' factor framework and rating definitions, but the main body of this note primarily uses industry export and supply-demand data to support views on Sieyuan Electric, NARI Technology, and Huaming.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Sieyuan Electric

  A key beneficiary in China's power grid technology sector, rated Buy.

  Strengths

  Benefits from tight global transformer supply, transformer export opportunities, and a broad product portfolio, and can also benefit from switchgear exports.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not highlight specific financial weaknesses, but the strong export growth depends on the sustainability of overseas demand, pricing, and deliveries.

  Comparison

  One of the preferred names among the Chinese power grid technology stocks covered in the report.

  Risks

  Slower export demand, U.S. domestic capacity expansion faster than expected, price declines, or changes in trade policy.

• NARI Technology

  A key beneficiary in China's power grid technology sector, rated Buy.

  Strengths

  Benefits from domestic grid capex and has export potential in converter valves and secondary equipment.

  Weaknesses

  Export opportunities are relatively more concentrated in specific equipment categories and are influenced by the pace of domestic grid investment.

  Comparison

  Along with Sieyuan Electric, one of the report's preferred Chinese power grid technology names.

  Risks

  Domestic grid capex coming in below expectations, or overseas orders converting more slowly than expected.

• Huaming

  A transformer components-related name, rated Neutral.

  Strengths

  Has stable growth potential in transformer component exports.

  Weaknesses

  The report believes the growth potential is already largely reflected in the share price.

  Comparison

  Compared with Sieyuan Electric and NARI Technology, Goldman Sachs is more cautious on Huaming.

  Risks

  Valuation already reflects export growth, or component demand and pricing come in below expectations.

• China power transformer export chain

  An industry chain theme benefiting from the U.S. and global supply-demand gap.

  Strengths

  April total exports rose 27% YoY, exports to the U.S. rose 95% YoY, and the U.S. domestic supply-demand gap remains high.

  Weaknesses

  Growth slowed from March to April, and price data vary by capacity segment and are volatile in the short term.

  Comparison

  Switchgear exports grew faster in April, showing export momentum for power equipment expanding beyond transformers to other categories.

  Risks

  Expansion of U.S. domestic capacity, raw material price fluctuations, export price declines, and uneven regional demand.

Key data

• April total export value of China's >10MVA transformers+27% yoySlowed from +56% yoy in March.
• April exports of Chinese transformers to the U.S.+95% yoySlowed from +118% yoy in March but still very strong.
• Gap between U.S. power transformer demand and domestic supply72% currently, 60% in 2028EGoldman Sachs expects the gap to narrow but shortages to persist.
• Export price of China's 220-330MVA transformers to the U.S.Three-month average for Feb-Apr +23% yoy, April alone -14% yoyPrice volatility is high, but the three-month rolling measure still shows YoY growth.
• U.S. switchgear PPI+14% yoyApril's YoY growth was higher than the roughly +4% yoy increase in power transformer PPI.
• April switchgear exports+77% yoySignificantly accelerated from +5% yoy in March, and were +38% yoy year to date.
• April electricity meter exportsBroadly flatYear to date exports were up about +4% YoY.
• Regional contribution of April transformer exportsAsia 30%, Africa 23%, Europe 21%, North America 19%, Middle East 12%, Latin America 3%Africa +681% YoY, North America +66%, Asia +38%, Middle East -26%, Europe +9%, Latin America -63%.
• Capacity mix of exports to the U.S.10-220MVA 44%, 220-330MVA 29%, 330-400MVA 15%Indicates that low-to-mid and mid-to-high capacity segments were the main contributors.

Impact & implications

For investors, the implication is that global, especially U.S., supply-demand tightness in power transformers continues to support Chinese power equipment exports, though the pace may fluctuate marginally. In the transformer export chain, companies with a complete product portfolio and overseas delivery capabilities stand to benefit more; the strong rebound in switchgear exports broadens the beneficiary set. The report therefore prefers Sieyuan Electric and NARI Technology, while viewing Huaming's component export growth expectations as already largely priced in.

Risks

• Expansion of U.S. domestic transformer capacity could narrow the demand/domestic supply gap faster than expected.
• China's export growth has already slowed from March, and subsequent monthly data may be volatile.
• The April single-month YoY decline of 14% in the export price of China's 220-330MVA transformers to the U.S. suggests prices are not rising in a straight line.
• Fluctuations in key raw material prices such as copper and GOES could affect margins and pricing competitiveness.
• Trade policy, tariffs, compliance restrictions, or geopolitical factors could affect Chinese power equipment exports.
• Export growth expectations for some names, such as Huaming, may already be reflected in share prices.

What to watch

• Subsequent months' total exports of China's >10MVA transformers and YoY growth in exports to the U.S.
• Whether U.S. power transformer PPI and switchgear PPI continue to stay elevated.
• The pace of U.S. domestic transformer manufacturers' capacity expansion and delivery schedules.
• The three-month rolling trend in export prices for key capacity segments such as 220-330MVA transformers to the U.S.
• Whether switchgear exports can sustain April's high growth rate.
• Domestic grid capex and export orders for converter valves and secondary equipment as drivers for NARI Technology.
• The impact of GOES and copper prices on gross margins at power equipment companies.