Media Benefits Could Propel Walmart+ Toward a Broader Household Membership Platform
AI summary card
Media Benefits Could Propel Walmart+ Toward a Broader Household Membership Platform
Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating on WMT, believing a potential Paramount-WBD partnership could strengthen Walmart+ retention and conversion while accelerating improvements in the profit mix of advertising, the marketplace platform, and e-commerce.
- Walmart+ membership is projected to grow from approximately 21 million in 2026 to approximately 38 million in 2030 and approximately 55 million in 2035.
- Member spending is approximately 4x that of non-members, and e-commerce visit frequency is approximately 7x that of non-members, supporting first-party data, fulfillment density, advertising, and marketplace monetization.
- U.S. e-commerce is expected to contribute approximately 34% of U.S. EBIT by 2028, up from approximately 8% in 2025.
- Media benefits are more likely to improve retention, reduce churn, and increase conversion among already interested households than to serve as a standalone large-scale customer-acquisition engine.
- The base case is for WMT to establish a preferred but non-exclusive partnership with the combined Paramount-WBD; deeper integration would provide additional upside.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report focuses on how Walmart+ can evolve from a transaction-oriented membership centered on delivery, fuel discounts, and price savings into a household services platform spanning retail, entertainment, advertising, and the marketplace. The report believes streaming content can create ongoing engagement between shopping occasions, strengthening membership value and amplifying WMT's digital flywheel.
Core views
The value of Walmart+ extends beyond its $98 annual fee: higher purchase and visit frequency can improve fulfillment efficiency, personalization, marketplace conversion, and advertising monetization. If a potential Paramount-WBD combination provides Walmart+ with broader content selection, discounted upgrades, or differentiated benefits, it would primarily create value through higher retention, reinforcing its position as a "second retail membership," and improving conversion. The report remains cautious on incremental member acceleration from media, believing commerce and convenience will remain the primary drivers of net new members.
Analysis framework
The report combines a Walmart+ membership model, AlphaWise surveys, interrupted time-series analysis before and after events, and case studies of Amazon Prime Video and Walmart+'s existing media partnerships to assess the impact of media benefits on customer acquisition, retention, member lifetime value, and downstream advertising and marketplace businesses.
Methodology notes
Membership–transactions–data–advertising/marketplace positive feedback loop
Stronger membership benefits increase visit and purchase frequency, thereby improving fulfillment, data, and advertising monetization capabilities; incremental high-margin revenue is reinvested in price, convenience, and membership benefits.
Testing changes in membership growth after media benefits launch
Using the partnership announcement or launch date as the intervention point, the analysis tests changes in membership scale and monthly growth rates, using HC3 robust standard errors to assess statistical significance.
The role of content benefits in the retail membership ecosystem
The Prime Video case illustrates that video benefits can expand the funnel and improve trial conversion and renewals, although membership growth is also driven by delivery, assortment, promotions, and other benefits.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- WMT.USCore Covered Name
- Strengths
- Broad offline and online retail touchpoints, the Walmart+ membership base, fulfillment network, first-party transaction data, Walmart Connect advertising platform, and VIZIO connected-TV assets create synergies.
- Weaknesses
- The direct customer-acquisition effect of media benefits still lacks significant empirical support; membership value remains primarily dependent on delivery, convenience, and price competitiveness.
- Comparison
- Relative to Amazon Prime, Walmart+'s media benefits remain at an earlier stage; Prime Video demonstrates content's potential to drive conversion and renewal, but is not the sole driver of membership growth.
- Risks
- Timing of the Paramount-WBD transaction and partnership terms are uncertain; competitors continue to strengthen membership and streaming benefits; content-benefit costs, integration execution, and the macro consumer environment may affect returns.
Key data
- Investment RatingOverweightMorgan Stanley's equity rating on WMT.
- Price Target$140.00Price target disclosed in the report.
- Closing Price$115.272026-08-14.
- Walmart+ Membership ForecastApproximately 21 million in 2026; approximately 38 million in 2030; approximately 55 million in 2035Morgan Stanley estimates.
- Membership Monetization Revenue ForecastApproximately $1.6 billion in 2025; approximately $3.7 billion in 2030; approximately $5.8 billion in 2035Excludes broader commerce, advertising, and marketplace gains.
- U.S. E-commerce EBIT ContributionApproximately 34% in 2028, versus approximately 8% in 2025Includes e-commerce profit mix improvement related to advertising, membership, and 1P/3P sales.
- Member EngagementMember spending is approximately 4x that of non-members; e-commerce visit frequency is approximately 7x that of non-membersUsed to illustrate the downstream economic value of members.
- Paramount-WBD Content BudgetApproximately $38 billion in 2028Estimated global film and television content spending for the combined platform.
- Partnership Scenario ProbabilitiesBase case 50%-60%; bear case 25%-35%; bull case 10%-20%Illustrative probability assessments in the report.
Impact & implications
If media benefits deepen, Walmart+ could achieve broader household reach and engagement in non-shopping occasions, improving member retention and conversion while channeling more identifiable traffic, purchase signals, and closed-loop measurement capabilities to Walmart Connect, VIZIO, and the third-party marketplace. For valuation, the key is not only growth in membership-fee revenue, but also the shift in the profit mix toward high-margin, recurring revenue streams such as advertising, membership, and the marketplace.
Risks
- The Paramount-WBD transaction is subject to U.S. litigation and regulatory processes, with the earliest realistic completion window potentially in the second half of 2027.
- WMT may not receive HBO Max branding, discounted upgrades, or exclusive benefits; a media partnership may deliver only limited catalog expansion.
- Surveys and interrupted time-series analysis do not show that the existing Paramount+ partnership significantly accelerated Walmart+ membership growth.
- Streaming benefits are becoming increasingly common across retail, delivery, telecommunications, and digital membership services, potentially weakening differentiation.
- Near-term quarterly comparable-sales performance may fall below investors' recent expectations.
- Execution of the integration across content, advertising, VIZIO, and the commerce closed loop may fall short of expectations.
What to watch
- The scope of benefits, pricing, upgrade discounts, and potential availability of an HBO Max option in a WMT-Paramount-WBD partnership.
- Paramount-WBD litigation, regulatory approvals, and transaction-completion timing.
- Changes in Walmart+ membership, retention, usage frequency, and churn.
- Contributions from Walmart Connect, VIZIO, and the marketplace platform to the high-margin revenue mix.
- U.S. e-commerce profitability and progress in increasing its contribution to U.S. EBIT.
- WMT quarterly comparable sales, e-commerce growth, and membership-related operating metrics.