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EV Market Recovery, Strong Battery Demand

Institution
Bernstein
Date
20260507
Authors
Eunice Lee, Stephen Reitman, Venugopal Garre, Masahiro Akita, Harry Martin, Steve Pereira Fernandes, Gali Salvatorelli Naraghi, Alice Buckley, Tomohiro Kashimoto, Ethan Xu, Param Shah
Company
Parts, Solutions, 003670, 2333, 1810
Ticker
TYRES.US, PPES.US, 003670.SS, 2333.HK, 1810.HK
Industry
New Energy Vehicles, Automotive, Batteries, Oil & Gas, Consumer
Rating
NeutralMedium confidenceMedium-termThe report holds a neutral stance on the overall EV market, suggesting that reduced subsidies and high base effects may lead to short-term growth slowdown, but long-term trends remain positive.
AuthorsEunice Lee, Stephen Reitman, Venugopal Garre, Masahiro Akita, Harry Martin, Steve Pereira Fernandes, Gali Salvatorelli Naraghi, Alice Buckley, Tomohiro Kashimoto, Ethan Xu, Param Shah
CoverageChina、United States、Japan、Other
Business segmentsAuto Parts、AI、5G、AR、Consumer Electronics、EV、Internet Retail
Research firm divisions/subsidiariesBernstein(Division/Team)

AI summary card

EV Market Recovery, Strong Battery Demand

Global EV sales grew 3% YoY in March 2026, with battery demand continuing to rise.

New Energy VehiclesBatteriesElectric VehiclesGlobal MarketSales Recovery
  • Global EV sales reached 1.73M in March, up 3% YoY.
  • Strong demand in China and Europe markets, weak performance in the US market.
  • CATL market share increased to 40%, dominating the global battery market.
  • Long term, EV penetration rate will continue to increase, expected to reach 32% in 2026.

Report interpretation

Overview

This research report analyzes the sales situation of the global EV market and battery demand trends for March 2026. Despite some markets experiencing short-term growth slowdown due to subsidy reductions, the overall market still shows recovery momentum. Meanwhile, the report points out that battery demand continues to grow, with leading companies such as CATL further expanding their market share.

Core views

Core Viewpoints include: 1. Global EV sales achieved 3% year-over-year growth in March, with strong performance in China and Europe markets, while the US market continued to decline under the impact of subsidy cancellations. 2. CATL maintained its industry leadership position, increasing its market share from 36% in 2025 to 40% in 2026. 3. LFP battery market share rose slightly, but may be near peak in the China market. 4. Long term, EV penetration rate will continue to increase, expected to reach 32% globally in 2026. 5. The report believes that over the coming months, as gasoline prices rise, consumers will be more inclined to purchase electric vehicles, driving accelerated market growth.

Analysis framework

The report adopts a top-down approach, first analyzing macro trends of the global EV market, then discussing sales data by region and performance of major manufacturers separately. By comparing data across different regions and manufacturers, it assesses market dynamics and competitive landscape. Additionally, the report focuses on changes in battery technology and chemical composition, analyzing NMC vs LFP battery market share changes and underlying reasons.

Methodology notes

  • Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkSupply and Demand Framework

    The report analyzes the growth potential of the EV market and battery demand trends through supply and demand relationships.

    The Supply and Demand framework is used to analyze the supply-demand balance of the EV market, helping to understand the drivers and constraints of sales growth.

  • Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkVolume and Price Breakdown

    The report breaks down EV sales by region and manufacturer, and analyzes the impact of price changes on demand.

    Volume and Price breakdown method is used to deeply understand sales performance and pricing strategies in different markets and manufacturers.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

  • CATL.OP
    Benefited by EV market growth and increased battery demand
    Strengths
    Leading market share, obvious technological advantages
    Comparison
    Higher and faster growing market share compared to competitors LGES, BYD
    Risks
    Intensifying market competition, raw material cost volatility
  • BYD.OP
    Benefited by EV market growth
    Strengths
    Rich product line, fast-growing battery business
    Comparison
    More competitive than Tesla in the China market
    Risks
    Subsidy policy changes, rising raw material costs

Key data

  • Global EV Sales1.73MMarch sales up 3% YoY, up 67% MoM
  • China EV Sales855KDown 14% YoY
  • Europe EV Sales530KUp 35% YoY
  • North America EV Sales116KDown 29% YoY
  • CATL Market Share40%Up 4 percentage points YoY

Impact & implications

The report believes that although subsidy reductions have caused pressure on some markets in the short term, long term EV penetration rate will continue to increase. As gasoline prices rise, consumer car-buying preferences may shift further towards electric vehicles, driving accelerated market demand growth. At the same time, battery technology progress and cost reductions will also become important drivers for industry development.

Risks

  • Changes in subsidy policies may cause fluctuations in market demand.
  • Rising raw material costs may compress profit margins for battery manufacturers.
  • Intensifying market competition may affect corporate profitability.

What to watch

  • Impact of gasoline price trends on EV demand.
  • New model launches by major manufacturers and market feedback.
  • Battery technology progress and cost reduction trends.
Zhejiang ICP No. 2022035445-5
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