China's humanoid robot commercialization is accelerating, but market sentiment cooled temporarily in June

Overview

This report is Bernstein's May/June barometer on the Asia emerging robotics industry, focusing on updates to humanoid robot industry events, market sentiment, and monthly fundamental data related to covered companies. The report shows that China is accelerating real-world scenario training and standards-setting on the policy side, while the industry side saw multiple developments from AgiBot, Unitree, UBTech, BYD, and others; however, market sentiment weakened in June due to the lack of strong catalysts.

Core views

The core view is that the long-term commercialization narrative for humanoid robots continues to be supported by policy, mass production, real-world deployment, and events involving leading technology companies, but short-term market sentiment depends more on verifiable catalysts. At the covered-company level, Hesai benefits from volume growth in ADAS LiDAR, but its market share declined sequentially; Tuopu and Shuanghuan maintain Outperform ratings; Sanhua faces a more balanced outlook due to air-conditioning demand and raw-material pressures; although Leader Drive is tied to the humanoid robot components theme, its valuation is very high, so it is rated Underperform.

Analysis framework

The report forms its judgment through four categories of information: first, it tracks global humanoid robot events in May/June one by one; second, it observes humanoid robot market sentiment and valuation premiums related to Tesla events; third, it updates monthly data on China's industrial robots, service robots, robot vacuum cleaners, xEV, LiDAR, air suspension, air conditioning, and raw material prices; fourth, it combines DCF, PE reference valuation, and Bernstein's rating system to provide ratings and target prices for covered companies.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsDCF

  Discounted cash flow

  The report discloses DCF as the primary valuation method. Target prices are based on each company's WACC and a terminal growth rate of 3.0%, and reflect the existing core business and the rising contribution from robotics businesses.

• Valuation referencePE

  Forward price-to-earnings ratio

  The report uses PE as a reference valuation method and discloses the forward PE multiples implied by target prices by the end of 2026, for example about 39x for Hesai, about 120x for Leader Drive, about 32x for Tuopu, about 35x for Sanhua, and about 30x for Shuanghuan.

• Rating frameworkBernstein stock rating

  12-month relative performance rating

  Bernstein-branded stock ratings are based on performance relative to the relevant market index over the next 12 months: Outperform indicates expected outperformance by more than 15 percentage points, Market-Perform indicates broadly in line performance, and Underperform indicates expected underperformance by more than 15 percentage points.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Hesai Group (HSAI.US; 2525.HK)

  A long-range ADAS LiDAR supplier benefiting from demand for intelligent driving and robot-related sensors.

  Strengths

  In May, long-range ADAS LiDAR shipments rose 66% YoY and market share remained at 45%; Bernstein assigns an Outperform rating.

  Weaknesses

  Shipment growth slowed from 177% in April to 66%, and market share declined from 50% to 45%.

  Comparison

  Target prices are HSAI.US USD30.00 and 2525.HK HKD238.00, implying substantial upside versus the 2026-06-29 closing prices.

  Risks

  LiDAR malfunctions causing severe traffic accidents, escalating U.S. sanctions, loss of share at key customers, and slower-than-expected profitability improvement.

• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co., Ltd. (688017.CH)

  A company tied to the themes of robot reducers and humanoid robot components.

  Strengths

  In May, China's industrial robot output rose 28% YoY and robot reducer output rose 45% YoY, with industry data still strong.

  Weaknesses

  Bernstein assigns an Underperform rating; 2026E PE is as high as 433.5x, and the target price of CNY115.00 is significantly below the closing price of CNY361.62.

  Comparison

  Its TTM relative performance is +151.5%, but the target price implies significant downside, showing the report's caution on valuation sustainability.

  Risks

  If the company formally enters the supply chain of leading humanoid robot manufacturers, the industry receives stronger-than-expected policy support, harmonic reducer share continues to rise, or planetary roller screw commercialization succeeds, the Underperform view could be challenged.

• Ningbo Tuopu Group Co., Ltd. (601689.CH)

  A beneficiary tied to auto parts, air suspension, and Tesla/humanoid robot valuation premiums.

  Strengths

  In May, China's xEV wholesale sales rose 13% YoY and Tuopu air suspension shipments rose 39% YoY; Bernstein assigns an Outperform rating.

  Weaknesses

  Air suspension shipment growth slowed sharply from 114% in April, while aluminum prices rose 17% YoY in June, creating cost pressure.

  Comparison

  The target price of CNY75.00 is above the 2026-06-29 closing price of CNY52.35, implying about 43% upside.

  Risks

  Tesla vehicle or robot progress falling short of expectations, declining interest in humanoid robot investing due to lack of breakthroughs, slower auto sales, and geopolitical effects such as tariffs or export controls on magnetic materials.

• Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co., Ltd. (2050.HK; 002050.CH)

  A company related to thermal management, air conditioning, xEV, and potential robot-specific thermal management solutions.

  Strengths

  If Tesla makes substantive progress in vehicles or robots, or the company launches robot-specific thermal management solutions, these could become upside catalysts.

  Weaknesses

  In May, domestic plus export air-conditioner sales fell 11% YoY, and 2Q26 and 3Q26 are still expected to decline YoY; copper prices in June rose 33% YoY and aluminum prices rose 17% YoY.

  Comparison

  The H-share target price of HKD27.00 is slightly above the closing price of HKD25.16, while the A-share target price of CNY39.00 is below the closing price of CNY41.27; the overall rating is Market-Perform.

  Risks

  Tesla vehicle or robot progress falling short of expectations, waning interest in humanoid robots, slower sales of new energy vehicles and air conditioners, and geopolitical risks such as tariffs and export controls on magnetic materials.

• Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co., Ltd. (002472.CH)

  A beneficiary tied to driveline systems, robot vacuum cleaners, industrial robots, and xEV.

  Strengths

  In May, China's xEV wholesale sales rose 13% YoY, industrial robot output rose 28% YoY, and robot vacuum cleaner sales improved from -26% YoY in April to +0.3% YoY in May; Bernstein assigns an Outperform rating.

  Weaknesses

  Demand for robot vacuum cleaners saw only slight positive growth, and the recovery in related consumer demand remains weak.

  Comparison

  The target price of CNY60.00 is above the 2026-06-29 closing price of CNY37.74, implying about 59% upside.

  Risks

  Tesla robots falling short of investor expectations, weakening interest in humanoid robots, slower sales of new energy vehicles and robot vacuum cleaners, or delays in European expansion or EV gear upgrades from parallel-axis to coaxial layouts.

Key data

• Humanoid robot policyChina's MIIT and SASAC launched a humanoid robot real-world scenario training plan in June 2026The report believes the Chinese government is accelerating real-world adoption and promoting standards for scenarios such as power substations and home appliance manufacturing.
• AgiBot mass production and demonstrationCumulative mass production of 15,000 units; 99.99% task success rate in factory demonstrationsThe success rate comes from quality inspection and material handling tasks during a six-day livestream factory demonstration.
• Unitree price changeR1 humanoid robot price cut by 25%, from RMB39,900 to RMB29,900The price decline may drive penetration of low-cost humanoid robots, but could also bring competitive and margin pressure.
• UBTech presalesAbout 5,000 units of full-size bionic humanoid robots in presalesThis corresponds to the industry development listed in the report's event table for 2026-06-21.
• Market sentimentHumanoid robot sentiment weakened in JuneThe report attributes this to the lack of meaningful new catalysts that month.
• Potential short-term catalystsBoston Dynamics World Cup showcase; Tesla Optimus Gen 3 expected to debut in July/AugustThe report lists both as events that could reignite sentiment in the near term.
• China xEV wholesale sales+13% YoY in 2026-05, +9% YoY in 2026-04This is relevant for auto-parts-related companies such as Tuopu, Sanhua, and Shuanghuan.
• China industrial robot output+28% YoY in 2026-05, +15% YoY in 2026-04This corresponds to fundamentals related to Shuanghuan and Leader Drive.
• China robot vacuum cleaner sales+0.3% YoY in 2026-05, -26% YoY in 2026-04In May, sales recovered from the sharp decline in April to slight growth.
• Hesai long-range ADAS LiDAR+66% YoY shipment growth in 2026-05, with 45% market shareIn April, shipment growth was +177% YoY with 50% market share, indicating sequential declines in both growth and share.
• Tuopu air suspension+39% YoY shipment growth in 2026-05Versus +114% YoY in April, growth remained positive but slowed from April.
• Sanhua-related air-conditioning dataChina domestic plus export air-conditioner sales in 2026-05 were -11% YoYThe report also mentions that based on production plans, 2Q26 and 3Q26 are expected to be -14% and -11% YoY, respectively.
• Raw material pricesCopper prices in 2026-06 were +33% YoY, aluminum prices were +17% YoYRising raw materials may affect the costs of manufacturing-chain companies such as Sanhua and Tuopu.
• Robot reducersChina output in 2026-05 was +45% YoY, versus +38% YoY in 2026-04This is relevant to reducer companies such as Leader Drive.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is that policy support and real-world scenario training have improved the visibility of humanoid robot commercialization in China, while events involving AgiBot, Unitree, and UBTech indicate frequent industry activity; however, short-term stock price performance still requires key catalysts from Tesla, Boston Dynamics, and others to materialize. Among the covered stocks, Hesai, Tuopu, and Shuanghuan have substantial upside to target prices relative to closing prices; although Leader Drive is tied to the robot reducer theme, its valuation is clearly elevated; Sanhua has a more balanced outlook, requiring simultaneous observation of robot thermal management opportunities, air-conditioning demand, and copper/aluminum cost pressures.

Risks

• If humanoid robots lack major breakthroughs, investor interest and thematic valuation premiums may continue to decline.
• If Tesla vehicle or robot progress falls short of expectations, sentiment toward related names such as Tuopu, Sanhua, and Shuanghuan will be affected.
• Slower downstream sales of new energy vehicles, air conditioners, and robot vacuum cleaners would weaken the fundamental support for related component companies.
• YoY increases in raw material prices such as copper and aluminum may compress the margins of manufacturing-chain companies.
• LiDAR safety accidents, escalating U.S. sanctions, or loss of share at key customers may affect Hesai.
• Geopolitical issues such as tariffs and export controls on magnetic materials may disrupt the humanoid robot and auto parts supply chain.
• If Leader Drive gains stronger-than-expected humanoid robot customers, policy support, or commercialization breakthroughs in key components, the Underperform view could face upside risk.

What to watch

• Whether Boston Dynamics' public showcase during the 2026 FIFA World Cup can reignite market sentiment.
• The launch timing, performance demonstration, and mass-production path of Tesla Optimus Gen 3 in July/August.
• The implementation progress of China's humanoid robot real-world scenario training plan and application standards.
• Mass production, presales, price cuts, and real-world deployment data from Chinese manufacturers such as AgiBot, UBTech, and Unitree.
• Whether Hesai's long-range ADAS LiDAR shipment growth and market share continue to decline.
• Monthly data such as China's xEV wholesale sales, industrial robot output, robot reducer output, and robot vacuum cleaner sales.
• The impact of air-conditioner sales, copper prices, aluminum prices, and other raw material prices on manufacturing-chain companies such as Sanhua and Tuopu.
• Whether the ratings, target prices, and implied valuation multiples of covered companies are adjusted due to industry catalysts or fundamental changes.