Maintain Buy and raise target price to cny39; supercapacitor and AIDC opportunities support growth expectations

Overview

This report is an earnings review of Nantong Jianghai Capacitor. The company's 2025 annual results showed strong revenue growth, but 4Q25 profit came in below expectations, mainly because gross margin was pressured by rising metal prices and asset impairments were recognized in the quarter. Despite near-term earnings pressure, the report remains constructive on the company's competitive position across its three major product lines: aluminum electrolytic capacitors, supercapacitors, and film capacitors, especially amid new demand from AI data center power management, server power supplies, energy storage, and automotive electronics.

Core views

The core view is: first, the aluminum electrolytic capacitor business remains resilient, benefiting from the end of photovoltaic inventory destocking, demand recovery, and opportunities in on-board chargers and charging piles; second, supercapacitor growth is strong, with large-volume orders already secured in grid energy storage, automotive electronics, and server power supplies; third, film capacitor revenue is growing, but gross margin is weighed down by competition in the new energy vehicle market and raw material costs; fourth, the company's positioning in AI-related power management opportunities is stronger, supporting a higher valuation multiple and a target price increase.

Analysis framework

The report combines earnings decomposition, segment-level gross margin analysis, earnings forecast revisions, and relative valuation. It first compares changes in revenue, net profit, and gross margin in 2025 and 4Q25, then evaluates the growth drivers and profitability pressure for aluminum electrolytic capacitors, supercapacitors, and film capacitors separately, and finally derives the target price based on 2026f EPS and the target P/E multiple.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsP/E valuation

  The target price is based on a 35x target P/E applied to 2026f EPS of cny1.12.

  The report raises the target P/E from 30x to 35x, above the peer 2026e average of 30x, because the company's positioning in AI-related opportunities is stronger and the increasing strategic importance of new energy is driving a sector rerating.

• Earnings forecastSegment-based forecast revisions

  Raised 2026f/2027f revenue forecasts while lowering gross margin forecasts and optimizing expense ratio assumptions.

  The report raises 2026f/2027f revenue forecasts by 3%/7%, lowers gross margin forecasts by 0.6/0.7 percentage points, and cuts both years' expense ratio forecasts by 0.6 percentage points, so 2026f net profit is broadly unchanged while 2027f net profit is raised by 6%.

• Rating definitionRelative benchmark rating

  Buy means the analyst expects the stock to outperform the benchmark over the next 12 months.

  The report discloses that the A-share benchmark is the CSI 300 Index, and the target price represents the analyst's judgment of the stock's intrinsic fair value over a 12-month horizon.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Nantong Jianghai Capacitor 002484.SZ

  Core coverage name

  Strengths

  It has a complete product portfolio spanning aluminum electrolytic capacitors, film capacitors, and supercapacitors; supercapacitors are growing quickly in grid energy storage, automotive electronics, and server power supplies; AIDC power management opportunities provide medium-term growth elasticity.

  Weaknesses

  4Q25 profit was weighed down by gross margin compression and asset impairment; film capacitor gross margin was pressured by competition in the new energy vehicle market and raw material costs.

  Comparison

  The 35x 2026f P/E target is above the peer 2026e average of 30x; the report believes the premium comes from the company's stronger positioning in AI-related opportunities and the sector rerating.

  Risks

  Raw material price volatility, weaker-than-expected downstream demand, slower-than-expected penetration into new markets, and exchange rate fluctuations.

Key data

• 2025 revenueCNY5.48bnUp 14.1% YoY.
• 2025 net profitCNY670mnUp 3% YoY.
• 2025 gross margin24.1%Down 0.8 percentage points YoY.
• 4Q25 revenueCNY1.37bnUp 7.7% YoY and down 3.9% QoQ.
• 4Q25 net profitCNY140mnDown 12.8% YoY and 20.8% QoQ.
• 4Q25 asset impairmentCNY27mnRecognized in the quarter and weighed on profit.
• 2025 revenue from aluminum electrolytic capacitorsCNY4.42bnUp 12.1% YoY, with gross margin broadly stable.
• 2025 revenue from supercapacitorsCNY350mnUp 52.5% YoY, with gross margin improving by 1.0 percentage point to 17.3%.
• 2025 revenue from film capacitorsCNY580mnUp 33.9% YoY, with gross margin down 2.9 percentage points to 13.7%.
• 2028f revenue/net profit forecastCNY10,038mn / CNY1,413mnThe report introduces 2028f forecasts for the first time.
• Target priceCNY39Based on 35x 2026f P/E and 2026f EPS of cny1.12.
• Current priceCNY29.75Closing price on 2026-04-10.

Impact & implications

The report raises the target price and maintains a Buy rating, indicating that near-term cost and impairment pressure has not changed its medium-term growth view. If supercapacitor, high-voltage aluminum electrolytic capacitor, and AIDC power management orders continue to ramp, the company could receive dual support from revenue growth and valuation multiple expansion; however, declining film capacitor gross margin also suggests that competition and cost pressure still need to be monitored.

Risks

• Raw material price volatility may continue to compress gross margin.
• Weaker-than-expected downstream demand may affect the ramp-up of aluminum electrolytic capacitors, film capacitors, and supercapacitors.
• Slower-than-expected penetration into new markets may weaken growth related to AIDC, server power supplies, and automotive electronics.
• Exchange rate fluctuations may affect costs, revenue, or profit performance.
• Film capacitors face intense competition in the new energy vehicle market.

What to watch

• The order ramp-up pace for supercapacitors in grid energy storage, automotive electronics, and server power supplies.
• Progress in trial production of high-voltage aluminum electrolytic capacitors and customer introduction in AIDC power management.
• Metal price trends and their impact on gross margin.
• Whether film capacitor gross margin can stabilize.
• Whether the higher 2026f/2027f revenue forecasts can translate into net profit growth.
• Whether improvements in the company's expense ratio are sustainable.