July TFT-LCD TV panel prices fell 2% MoM, while IT panel prices were flat

Overview

This report tracks TFT-LCD panel prices in July 2026 and the implications for the Greater China technology hardware supply chain. The core conclusion is that TV panel prices have started to decline, while IT panel prices are temporarily flat; due to pull-forward stocking in 1H26 ahead of the Winter Olympics, the World Cup, and China’s 618 promotions, TV panel shipments in 2H26 may come in below seasonal levels, weakening the pricing power of panel makers. At the same time, industry supply discipline, utilization control, and structural consolidation continue to support prices.

Core views

The report believes the panel price cycle is entering a mild downcycle rather than a deep downturn. TV panel prices fell 2% MoM in July and are likely to remain under downward pressure in the coming months; demand for monitor and notebook panels is also slowing, but cost pressure means panel makers are unwilling to cut prices in the near term. As for panel stocks, opportunities in advanced packaging glass substrates have not yet fully translated into earnings contributions, and competition may intensify during mass production, so it is premature to re-rate panel stocks based on this theme.

Analysis framework

The analytical framework focuses on monthly panel prices, quarterly average price trends, second-half shipment seasonality, display maker utilization rates, supply discipline, P/B valuation, and the potential contribution from advanced packaging glass substrates, and maps panel price trends to the valuations and fundamentals of supply-chain companies such as AUO, Innolux, BOE, TCL, and Corning.

Methodology notes

• Industry cycle analysisMonthly and quarterly trend tracking for panel prices

  Use monthly MoM price changes and quarterly average price forecasts to determine the direction of the TFT-LCD price cycle.

  The report uses July price changes for TV, monitor, and notebook panels, together with 3Q26 quarterly average price expectations, to conclude that TV panel prices have started to decline while IT panel prices remain flat in the short term.

• Supply-demand analysisShipment seasonality and pull-forward stocking analysis

  Compare the shipment mix between 1H and 2H to identify the impact of demand pull-forward on subsequent order momentum.

  Over the past decade, TV panel shipments have typically been distributed roughly 49%-51% between the first and second halves; in 2026, due to pull-forward stocking ahead of sports events and promotional campaigns, the report expects 2H26 order momentum to slow.

• Valuation analysisP/B and ROE framework

  Use 2026e P/B and ROE expectations to assess the risk-reward of panel stocks.

  The report discusses AUO, Innolux, BOE, TCL, and other names using P/B multiples, arguing that risk-reward is broadly balanced after the recent pullback, while preferring BOE for its scale advantage and faster progress in glass core substrates.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BOE Technology (000725.SZ)

  Relatively preferred name

  Strengths

  Scale advantage, higher exposure to the display business, and faster progress in glass core substrates.

  Weaknesses

  Still affected by the panel price cycle and slowing end demand.

  Comparison

  The report prefers BOE over TCL among Chinese panel stocks.

  Risks

  If 2H26 demand is weaker than expected or glass substrate contributions are delayed, valuation support could weaken.

• TCL Corp. (000100.SZ)

  Covered panel stock, rated Equal-weight

  Strengths

  A beneficiary of industry consolidation; the LG Display Guangzhou Gen8.5 line transaction helps the supply landscape.

  Weaknesses

  Valuation is about 1.7x 2026e P/B, above the 1.4x mid-cycle average since 2022.

  Comparison

  Compared with BOE, the report finds TCL less attractive.

  Risks

  Declining TV panel prices, weakening demand, and slower realization of advanced packaging contributions.

• AUO (2409.TW)

  Covered panel stock, rated Equal-weight

  Strengths

  Supply discipline among major panel makers provides support against price declines, and its diversification efforts are recognized.

  Weaknesses

  The TV panel price upcycle is nearing its end, and it will still take time for diversification to make a meaningful earnings contribution.

  Comparison

  Like Innolux, it is a Taiwan panel stock; after the recent pullback, risk-reward is viewed as fair.

  Risks

  Further panel price declines or lower-than-expected contributions from non-panel businesses.

• Innolux (3481.TW)

  Covered panel stock, rated Equal-weight

  Strengths

  Participates in glass core substrate projects for foundry customers, offering potential advanced packaging exposure.

  Weaknesses

  The report expects no meaningful contribution before 2028, and the number of competitors may increase during mass production.

  Comparison

  Compared with an immediate re-rating based on the glass substrate theme, the report is more cautious.

  Risks

  Delays in advanced packaging projects, intensifying competition, and declining panel prices.

• Corning (GLW.N)

  Name linked to display materials and panel utilization rates

  Strengths

  High operating efficiency in its display business and potential benefit from FX-related price increases; optical communications business is returning to growth.

  Weaknesses

  Its display business remains highly tied to panel maker utilization rates.

  Comparison

  Compared with panel makers, Corning benefits more from material pricing and linkage to utilization rates.

  Risks

  A decline in panel maker utilization rates or weaker display demand.

• Novatek (3034.TW)

  Greater China DDiC supply-chain related name, Underweight thesis

  Strengths

  Its OLED DDI roadmap is more competitive than Korean peers in both performance and cost, helping it penetrate Apple’s iPhone supply chain.

  Weaknesses

  Weak PC, smartphone, and auto demand, margin pressure, and a lack of new growth drivers.

  Comparison

  The report treats it as a DDiC supply-chain implication rather than a top panel stock pick.

  Risks

  Continued weak end demand and expanding margin pressure.

Key data

• July TV panel prices-2% MoMPrices for mainstream 32-, 43-, 55-, 65-, and 75-inch TV panels fell 3%, 3%, 2%, 2%, and 1%, respectively.
• July IT panel prices0% MoMMonitor and notebook panel prices were flat MoM.
• Expected 3Q26 average TV panel priceslow-single-digit % QoQ declineAfter demand pull-forward, 2H26 shipments may come in below seasonal levels.
• Expected 3Q26 average IT panel prices0% QoQDemand is soft, but component cost pressure limits panel makers' willingness to cut prices.
• 2Q26 display maker utilization rate80%-85%Industry utilization was broadly flat QoQ, reflecting continued supply discipline.
• AUO valuation and ratingEqual-weight；PT NT$27.00；1.4x 2026e P/BThe report believes the TV panel price increase is near its end, but supply discipline provides downside support.
• BOE valuation and viewPT Rmb9.30；2.5x 2026e P/BThe report relatively prefers BOE due to its scale advantage, higher exposure to the display business, and faster progress in glass core substrates.
• TCL valuation and ratingEqual-weight；PT Rmb4.70；1.7x 2026e P/BThe stock trades at 1.7x 2026e P/B, above its mid-cycle average of 1.4x since 2022.

Impact & implications

For investors, declining panel prices will weigh on earnings elasticity and valuation expansion for panel makers, but supply discipline and industry consolidation reduce the risk of a sharp price drop. In the short term, focus should be on the strength of brand demand in August-September for year-end promotional stocking, and whether panel makers continue to control utilization rates. Advanced packaging glass core substrates are a potential long-term opportunity, but the report believes it will still take time for earnings contributions to materialize, which is not enough to immediately support a broad re-rating of panel stocks.

Risks

• Stronger-than-expected end demand could drive stronger panel shipments and ease price pressure.
• If major panel makers exercise tighter output control, price declines could be mitigated even when demand is weak.
• If non-commoditized display businesses progress faster than expected, panel makers’ financial performance could exceed the report’s expectations.
• If advanced packaging glass core substrates contribute faster than expected, related panel stock valuations could receive additional support.
• Conversely, if 2H26 order momentum is weaker than expected or supply discipline loosens, TV panel price declines could widen.

What to watch

• The strength of demand in August-September as brands stock up for year-end promotions.
• Whether 3Q26 average TV panel prices decline only by a low-single-digit percentage QoQ.
• Whether IT panel prices can remain stable before 4Q26.
• Whether display maker utilization rates remain around 80%-85%.
• Mass production progress by BOE, TCL, AUO, and Innolux in glass core substrate and advanced packaging projects.
• Whether component cost pressure continues to support IT panel prices.