Goldman Sachs raises Nebius target price to $286 and reiterates Buy

Overview

This report is a company research update by Goldman Sachs on Nebius Group. Goldman Sachs upgraded its view on the company's growth opportunities, raised the 12-month target price to $286, and reiterated its Buy rating. The core reasons are continued strong AI demand, accelerating enterprise customer adoption, solid execution in expanding Nebius' contracted power and compute capacity, and the comprehensive capabilities of its AI platform across the hardware and software stack.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes AI demand is a structural tailwind for the next several years, and Nebius is well positioned to benefit in AI infrastructure. The report highlights that the company has repeatedly raised its contracted power target and now plans to exceed 4GW by the end of 2026; its first Meta contract was delivered in 1Q26, and the MSFT ramp remains on schedule. Enterprise customer demand is also strong, with 3-5x excess demand for every deployed GPU outside hyperscale customers. Based on these factors, Goldman Sachs raised its 2027-2030 revenue forecasts and believes higher revenue and a more favorable business mix support the higher target price.

Analysis framework

The report forms its view by combining validation of AI industry-chain demand, enterprise AI adoption trends, the company's capacity ramp execution, platform reliability, and adjustments to the financial model. On valuation, it continues to use a 9x CY27E enterprise value-to-sales multiple and applies it to a higher CY27 sales forecast while incorporating a higher net debt assumption.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methods9x CY27E enterprise value/sales (EV/Sales)

  The target price is based on a 9x CY27E EV/Sales multiple.

  Goldman Sachs kept the valuation multiple unchanged, but because its CY27 sales forecast was raised, the 12-month target price increased from $267 to $286.

• Factor frameworkGoldman Sachs Factor Profile (GS Factor Profile)

  Compares stock characteristics across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors.

  The report discloses Goldman Sachs' factor profile methodology, using forward sales growth, EBITDA growth, EPS growth, ROE, ROCE, CROCI, and various valuation multiples to generate percentile comparisons.

• Scenario and risk frameworkM&A Rank

  Uses an M&A ranking from 1 to 3 to measure the probability of a company becoming an acquisition target.

  This is part of Goldman Sachs' standard disclosure framework; the main body of this report does not provide a specific M&A rank for Nebius, nor does it treat M&A as a core investment thesis.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• NBIS.US / Nebius Group NV

  Covered name and beneficiary of AI infrastructure and enterprise AI compute demand.

  Strengths

  The contracted power target has been raised to above 4GW by end-2026; initial deliveries under the Meta contract have been completed, and the MSFT ramp remains on schedule; the platform spans both hardware and software capabilities, and the company says its reliability is superior to many alternative compute suppliers.

  Weaknesses

  The business still relies heavily on continued expansion in AI compute demand, successful capacity ramp execution, and delivery under large customer contracts; depreciation and amortization timing can significantly affect adjusted EBIT.

  Comparison

  Compared with many alternative compute suppliers, the report emphasizes that Nebius' platform has higher reliability, with enterprise customer feedback indicating reliability can be up to 5x that of competing solutions.

  Risks

  Competition from hyperscale cloud vendors, slower-than-expected AI adoption, reduced visibility due to shorter-term contracts, and capacity and power delivery falling short of expectations.

• AI infrastructure demand chain

  Industry demand indicators used to support the NBIS growth assumptions.

  Strengths

  Agentic AI, enterprise workflow automation, and tight supply-demand conditions in storage and semiconductors all point to stronger compute demand.

  Weaknesses

  Demand strength still needs continued validation through enterprise deployments, GPU utilization, and conversion into long-term contracts.

  Comparison

  The report cites information from Qualcomm and Micron showing that AI query token demand and storage agreement commitments have both strengthened significantly.

  Risks

  If lower AI model costs do not lead to greater usage, or if enterprise adoption is below expectations, the revenue elasticity of AI infrastructure may weaken.

Key data

• Report date2026-06-29The report cover page shows the publication time as 29 June 2026 6:01AM BST.
• RatingBuyGoldman Sachs reiterated its Buy rating on Nebius Group.
• 12-month target price$286The previous target price was $267.
• Disclosed price$240.30Company-specific disclosures list the Nebius Group price at $240.30.
• Implied upsideApproximately 19.0%Estimated based on the $286 target price and the $240.30 disclosed price.
• Valuation multiple9x CY27E EV/SalesThe valuation multiple remains unchanged and is applied to a higher CY27 sales forecast.
• FY26 revenue forecastUnchangedGoldman Sachs stated that its FY26 revenue forecast is unchanged.
• 2027-2030 revenue forecast revision+10% to +61%Raised to reflect a more positive view on the core AI business.
• 2029-2030 gross margin forecastRaised by 1 percentage pointReflects a more favorable business mix and higher revenue.
• FY27-30 adjusted EBIT forecast revision-310% to +49%The change reflects updated assumptions for revenue, gross margin, operating expenses, and depreciation and amortization timing.
• EBITDA forecast revision0% to +65%Reflects changes in EBIT and depreciation and amortization assumptions.
• Contracted power target by end-2026>4GWThe company has raised its contracted power target for several consecutive quarters.
• GPU demand from non-hyperscale customers3-5x oversubscriptionCiting company roadshow information, Goldman Sachs said that for every deployed GPU there is 3-5x demand among non-hyperscale customers.
• Micron strategic customer agreements16 take-or-pay strategic customer agreementsCiting its semiconductor team, Goldman Sachs noted that these agreements imply around $100bn of five-year committed revenue at floor pricing.

Impact & implications

The investment implication for NBIS is positive: if AI compute demand, enterprise adoption, and contracted power expansion continue to be delivered, Nebius' revenue growth and valuation support will strengthen. The target price increase is driven mainly by higher sales forecasts rather than multiple expansion, indicating that improvement in the earnings model is the core of this revision. At the same time, competition, the pace of AI adoption, and visibility on contract duration remain key constraints on achieving the target price.

Risks

• Competitive pressure from hyperscale cloud vendors.
• AI adoption may be slower than expected.
• Shorter-duration contracts reduce revenue visibility.
• Execution of contracted power and GPU capacity ramp-up may fall short of expectations.
• Depreciation and amortization and operating expense timing may pressure adjusted EBIT.

What to watch

• Whether contracted power exceeds the 4GW target by the end of 2026.
• Revenue recognition following Meta contract deliveries, and whether the MSFT ramp continues on schedule.
• Whether the 3-5x oversubscription in GPU demand from non-hyperscale customers can convert into long-term contracts.
• Whether enterprise AI and Agentic AI adoption continues to expand.
• Whether platform products such as AI Cloud 3.6 and Nebius Echo can improve customer stickiness.
• The impact of gross margin mix improvement and depreciation and amortization timing on EBITDA and adjusted EBIT.