HARMONI-6 OS data to be announced at ASCO; Nomura raises Akeso target price but maintains Neutral

Overview

This report focuses on the disclosure timeline for OS data from Akeso's core asset ivonescimab in the HARMONI-6 study. On April 21, ASCO released abstracts of clinical programs to be presented at its 2026 annual meeting, among which HARMONI-6 OS data will be reported as a Late-breaking Abstract in the plenary session. Nomura believes this confirms the timeline of a key clinical event that the market had been watching closely but the company had not previously formally disclosed, and it strengthens positive expectations for the asset.

Core views

The core view is that HARMONI-6 results should be favorable, but HARMONi-3 remains the true determinant of value for Akeso and its overseas partner Summit Therapeutics. HARMONI-6 mainly involves data from Chinese patients and can provide directional reference for global HARMONi-3; however, from both scientific and investment perspectives, the HARMONi-3 PFS readout remains a binary event. The market expects it may be announced in 2Q26, but neither the company nor its partner has formally confirmed the timing.

Analysis framework

The report evaluates Akeso across five dimensions: clinical conference disclosure level, existing PFS data, potential OS readout, product peak sales forecasts, and DCF valuation. Nomura treats HARMONI-6's ASCO plenary-session LBA status as a positive signal and, combined with prior PFS data and the subsequent uncertainty around HARMONi-3, raises the target price while maintaining a neutral rating.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsDCF

  Discounted cash flow model

  The target price of HKD142.75 is based on the DCF model, with core assumptions of WACC at 10.8% and terminal growth rate at 4%, both unchanged from before.

• Clinical event assessmentASCO Late-breaking Abstract signal

  Using the level of conference disclosure to assess the importance of clinical data

  The report believes that HARMONI-6 OS data being included in the ASCO plenary-session LBA usually means the study may have the potential to change treatment guidelines, so the OS data is likely to be positive.

• Relative rating systemNomura equity research rating system

  12-month relative benchmark performance rating

  Nomura's Neutral indicates the analyst expects the stock to perform broadly in line with the benchmark index over the next 12 months; the benchmark index for this stock is the Hang Seng Index.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Akeso (9926.HK)

  Research subject

  Strengths

  A commercial-stage biotech company with a leading position in bispecific antibodies, supported by an internal R&D platform and a deep pipeline.

  Weaknesses

  Valuation is already relatively high, the target price still implies negative downside versus the current price, and key clinical events carry binary risk.

  Comparison

  Relative to the Hang Seng Index as the rating benchmark, the report maintains Neutral, implying expected relative performance over the next 12 months broadly in line with the benchmark.

  Risks

  Slower-than-expected sales ramp-up, weaker-than-expected ivonescimab PFS or subsequent key data, and failure in new drug development.

• ivonescimab

  Core value-driving asset

  Strengths

  HARMONI-6 has already reported positive PFS data, OS will be presented in the ASCO plenary-session LBA, and the report raises the China peak sales forecast.

  Weaknesses

  HARMONI-6 mainly involves Chinese patients and provides only directional reference for global HARMONi-3, so it cannot fully eliminate uncertainty around overseas data.

  Comparison

  China peak sales forecast is raised to CNY5.6bn, while overseas peak sales forecast remains at CNY63bn.

  Risks

  HARMONi-3 data remains a binary event; if PFS or OS misses expectations, the product's overseas value may come under pressure.

• candonilimab

  Important pipeline asset with raised sales forecast

  Strengths

  Due to progress in more clinical trials in China and overseas markets, the peak sales forecast is raised from CNY3.2bn to CNY5.5bn.

  Weaknesses

  It still depends on clinical progress, commercialization execution, and indication expansion.

  Comparison

  Compared with previous estimates, the peak sales assumption has increased significantly.

  Risks

  Trial progress, efficacy data, commercialization ramp-up, and changes in the competitive landscape may affect ultimate sales realization.

Key data

• RatingNeutralMaintain Neutral rating.
• Target priceHKD142.75Raised from HKD112.73.
• Current priceHKD146.70Closing price on 21-Apr-2026.
• Implied upside-2.7%Calculated based on target price and current price.
• Existing HARMONI-6 PFS datamPFS 11.1 months vs 6.9 months; HR<0.60; P<0.0001Positive PFS data was already reported in 2025.
• Potential OS assessment thresholdHR<0.8; p-value<0.05The report believes positive OS data may be reflected in longer OS and a meaningful HR.
• ivonescimab China peak sales forecastCNY5.6bnRaised from CNY4.8bn.
• ivonescimab overseas peak sales forecastCNY63bnUnchanged.
• candonilimab peak sales forecastCNY5.5bnRaised from CNY3.2bn due to progress in more clinical trials in China and overseas.
• FY26F revenue forecastCNY5.404bnPer the financial forecast table.
• FY28F revenue forecastCNY9.998bnPer the financial forecast table.
• FY35F sales valuation multiple5.8x FY35F sales of CNY22.4bnLong-term sales valuation reference provided by the report.

Impact & implications

In the short term, the HARMONI-6 OS disclosure may strengthen market confidence in ivonescimab's commercialization and indication expansion value, and support higher peak sales assumptions for the product. In the medium term, the global HARMONi-3 study remains the more critical value-validation point; if the data is strong, the overseas commercialization value may be further re-rated, while if the data falls short of expectations, current positive expectations may pull back. Since the target price is below the current price, Nomura remains cautious in its investment recommendation despite becoming more constructive on asset quality.

Risks

• HARMONi-3 global study PFS data comes in below market expectations.
• Although HARMONI-6 OS may be positive, its extrapolation to global market value remains limited.
• Sales ramp-up is weaker than expected.
• New drug development fails or pipeline progress falls short of expectations.
• If stronger OS/PFS data, more out-licensing of molecules, or sales growth exceed expectations, they could constitute upside risks.

What to watch

• Formal HARMONI-6 OS data at the ASCO annual meeting from May 29 to June 2, 2026.
• The specific median OS, HR, and p-value of HARMONI-6 OS.
• HARMONi-3 PFS data that the market expects may be disclosed in 2Q26.
• ivonescimab commercialization progress in China and overseas partnership progress.
• Progress of more candonilimab clinical trials in China and overseas.
• Whether the company formally confirms the HARMONi-3 timeline.