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Air China Capacity Up 4% Year-over-Year

Institution
Morgan Stanley
Date
20260512
Authors
Qianlei Fan, Tenny Song
Company
Air China
Ticker
-
Industry
Air Transportation
Rating
NeutralMedium confidenceThe report takes a neutral stance on the Asia-Pacific aviation industry, mainly providing tracking and analysis of capacity data.
AuthorsQianlei Fan, Tenny Song
CoverageChina、Hong Kong、United States、Japan、South Korea、Asia-Pacific
Research firm divisions/subsidiariesMorgan Stanley Asia Limited(Subsidiary/Legal Entity)

AI summary card

Air China Capacity Up 4% Year-over-Year

For the week ending May 11, 2026, China's non-domestic capacity grew 4% YoY, with significant divergence across routes.

Airline CapacityAsia-Pacific RoutesCapacity RecoveryRoute AnalysisData Tracking
  • Non-domestic capacity up 4% YoY (9% excluding Japan)
  • Japan route capacity down 49% YoY
  • South Korea, Thailand, Europe/US routes capacity up YoY
  • Macau, Thailand, Hong Kong routes capacity decreased WoW
  • Major route capacities recovered to 29%-104% of 2019 levels, varying by route

Report interpretation

Overview

This report tracks the international capacity performance of Chinese airlines in the Asia-Pacific region for Week 19 of 2026 (as of May 11). Data shows overall capacity grew moderately, but with significant divergence across routes; Japan routes remained weak, while South Korea, Thailand, and Europe/US routes performed well.

Core views

As of the week ending May 11, 2026, the total non-domestic Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) of Chinese airlines grew 4% year-over-year; excluding Japan routes, the growth was 9%. Flight frequency decreased 4% year-over-year. Regarding route performance, week-over-week, Macau, Thailand, and Hong Kong routes capacity decreased by 19%, 9%, and 6% respectively. Year-over-year, South Korea routes grew 13%, Thailand routes grew 15%, Europe routes grew 17%, US routes grew 5%, but Japan routes fell sharply 49%, and Macau routes fell 20%. Compared to 2019 levels, seat capacity for Japan, Thailand, and South Korea routes recovered to 56%, 61%, and 104% respectively, while US routes recovered only to 29%. Compared to the week of March 1, EU route capacity grew 18%, and the three major airlines and their subsidiaries collectively increased capacity by 21%, among which Air China grew 28%, China Southern grew 18%, and China Eastern grew 15%.

Analysis framework

The report employs a route capacity data tracking methodology, assessing aviation market recovery by comparing capacity changes across different time dimensions. Key analysis focuses on Week-over-Week and Year-over-Year changes, as well as comparisons to pre-pandemic levels, revealing recovery progress and demand shifts across routes from multiple perspectives.

Methodology notes

  • Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkVolume-Price Breakdown

    ASK Indicator in Airline Capacity Analysis

    ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) is a core metric in the aviation industry for measuring capacity supply, reflecting the total transport capacity provided by airlines. This report analyzes capacity adjustment trends across routes using YoY and WoW changes in ASK.

  • Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

    Route Capacity and Demand Matching Analysis

    The report infers supply-demand relationships through increases or decreases in capacity across routes. Capacity increases typically reflect recovering demand, while capacity reductions may indicate insufficient demand or adjustments in competitive strategy.

Key data

  • Non-domestic ASK YoY Growth Rate+4%Overall capacity grew moderately, up 9% excluding Japan
  • Japan Route ASK YoY-49%Significant decrease, recovered to 56% of 2019 levels
  • South Korea Route ASK YoY+13%Continued growth, exceeding 104% of 2019 levels
  • US Route Recovery Level29%Recovery level relative to 2019

Impact & implications

Report data shows structural divergence in Chinese airlines' international capacity, with regional Asia-Pacific routes recovering better, while long-haul international routes, particularly the US, recovered more slowly. This divergence reflects differences in the recovery of tourism demand and business travel across regions, providing reference for airlines adjusting capacity deployment.

Zhejiang ICP No. 2022035445-5
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