Export Volume and Prices Rise; Domestic Demand Remains Weak; Rate Cut Expectations Increase
AI summary card
Export Volume and Prices Rise; Domestic Demand Remains Weak; Rate Cut Expectations Increase
JPMorgan's latest high-frequency data shows significant growth in China's export container and bulk cargo volumes in June, but declining auto sales and uncertain real estate recovery; delayed fiscal stimulus may drive rate cuts in H2.
- June export container and bulk cargo volumes rose 8.9% and 10.8% YoY respectively, with freight rates continuing to rise.
- May passenger car retail sales fell 22% YoY, and NEV sales dropped 7.5%, weighing on overall consumption.
- New and second-hand home sales in 30 major cities turned positive YoY in June, but the land market remains sluggish.
- Government bond issuance slowed to RMB 616 billion in June; if domestic demand remains weak, bond issuance is expected to accelerate in Q3 with potential rate cuts.
- Coal prices rose to a nearly 20-month high, while the YoY decline in pork prices narrowed to -28.2%.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report is the 57th edition of JPMorgan's China Alternative Data Tracker Chart Pack, aiming to map official economic activity via high-frequency data. The core view suggests that weak domestic activity in April created downside risks for Q2 growth, with mixed data in May (trade beating expectations but credit demand weak). June data indicates exports remain a bright spot with rising volumes and rates; however, domestic production sectors like crude processing, autos, and steel show divergence or contraction. Although real estate sales improved YoY, sustainability is questionable. Fiscal stimulus is back-loaded; if domestic demand remains insufficient, the probability of rate cuts in H2 increases.
Core views
Exports: Port tracking data shows that departing container and bulk vessel deadweight tonnage increased MoM in June, maintaining YoY growth momentum. Excluding tankers, total deadweight tonnage of departing vessels rose 17.9% YoY in June (vs. 7.7% in May), indicating accelerating cargo volumes alongside recent price increases. Meanwhile, CCFI rates to US East/West Coasts rose 6.5% and 9.1% respectively, and rates to Persian Gulf/Red Sea rose 8.6%. Production & Industry: Affected by oil supply disruptions, petroleum asphalt plant operating rates continued to fall, deviating from typical seasonal patterns, suggesting crude processing contraction may deepen in May and further decline in June (April YoY -5.8%). Tire plant operating rates suggest auto industry output growth may have improved slightly in May but slowed in June (April YoY -2.6%). Rebar operating rates imply steel industry output contraction may deepen in May but narrow in June (April YoY -1.7%). Consumption & Autos: Auto sales remain a drag on total retail sales. May passenger car retail sales fell 22% YoY, partly due to reduced trade-in subsidies, purchase tax cuts, and rising fuel costs. NEV sales declined by a narrower margin of 7.5%. In the first week of June, passenger car sales fell 23% YoY and NEV sales dropped 14%. Real Estate: New home sales in 30 major cities rose 4.0% YoY in June (vs. -1.4% in May), and second-hand home sales rose 24.5% YoY (vs. 18.0% in May), mainly driven by base effects. Despite improved sales, land sales revenue slipped slightly again in early June and remains at low levels, leaving uncertainty about whether the real estate market has bottomed out. Policy & Liquidity: Government bond issuance slowed to RMB 616 billion in June (vs. RMB 114 billion in May), with treasury bond issuance dropping significantly to RMB 164 billion. Without a month-end surge, fiscal delivery remained less front-loaded in June. If domestic demand weakness persists, government bond issuance and fund deployment are expected to accelerate in Q3. The PBoC injected a net RMB 410 billion via pledged reverse repos and withdrew RMB 300 billion via outright reverse repos in June. Given unexpected weakness in April activity data and downside risks to Q2 GDP, rate cuts remain under consideration; if H2 growth headwinds intensify and outweigh inflation risks, the likelihood of cuts increases.
Analysis framework
The report adopts an analytical framework of 'mapping official statistics with high-frequency alternative data.' The institution tracks port shipping data (deadweight tonnage, freight rates), industrial operating rates (asphalt, tires, steel), real estate transaction data (sales in 30 cities, land premium rates), and high-frequency price indicators to forecast trends in monthly official macro data (e.g., industrial value added, retail sales, CPI/PPI). This approach offers strong timeliness, providing real-time snapshots of economic activity before official releases and helping investors calibrate expectations for quarterly growth momentum.
Methodology notes
Assessing export demand volume-price dynamics via port departure deadweight tonnage and freight rate changes
The report validates the authenticity of export growth by observing dual changes in physical export volumes (deadweight tonnage) and prices (CCFI index). Simultaneous rises in volume and price typically indicate strong external demand with certain pricing power, rather than nominal growth driven solely by price fluctuations.
Inferring midstream industrial production status via upstream operating rates (e.g., asphalt, tires)
Due to lags in official industrial value-added data, the report uses operating rates in upstream raw material processing (e.g., petroleum asphalt, all-steel tires) as leading indicators to infer overall industrial activity. For instance, declining asphalt operating rates directly reflect contraction in crude processing volumes.
Coordination between fiscal stimulus pacing and monetary policy
The report examines the relationship between government bond issuance progress (degree of front-loaded fiscal stimulus) and PBoC liquidity operations (net reverse repo injections). If back-loaded fiscal spending leads to insufficient domestic demand, the central bank may need to offset this via monetary measures like rate cuts, reflecting the linkage logic between fiscal and monetary policies.
Key data
- June Total Departing Vessel Deadweight Tonnage YoY Growth17.9%Excluding tankers; significant acceleration vs. 7.7% in May
- May Passenger Car Retail Sales YoY-22%Impacted by subsidy reductions and rising fuel costs
- June New Home Sales in 30 Cities YoY4.0%Turned positive from -1.4% in May
- June Government Bond Issuance ScaleRMB 616 bnSignificant slowdown vs. RMB 114 bn in May
- Early June Pork Wholesale Price YoY-28.2%Decline narrowed slightly from -28.5% in May but remains elevated
- Coal PricesNearly 20-month highDriven by seasonal summer demand
Impact & implications
The report suggests China's current economy exhibits characteristics of 'strong external, weak internal.' Strong export performance provides some support for growth, but weak domestic demand, especially in auto and real estate consumption, limits overall recovery strength. Back-loaded fiscal stimulus implies H1 economic stimulus effects may be less concentrated than expected; if this trend continues, Q3 policy could see more active bond issuance and potential rate cuts to stabilize growth expectations. Investors should monitor the sustainability of the export chain and the potential boost to domestic demand sectors from policy easing.
Risks
- Persistent weak domestic demand leading to below-expectation economic growth
- Global geopolitical conflicts impacting supply chains and energy prices
- Real estate market recovery falling short of expectations, dragging related supply chains
- Resurgent inflation risks potentially constraining monetary easing space
What to watch
- Official release of May domestic hard activity indicators
- Potential surge in government bond issuance at end-June
- Whether the PBoC implements rate cuts in H2
- Sustainability of real estate sales and pass-through to prices