Battery structural parts leader plus new robotics business, Nomura initiates coverage with Buy

Overview

This report marks Nomura's initiation of coverage on Shenzhen Kedali Industrial. Kedali's main business is precision structural parts, with core downstream sectors including power batteries, energy storage batteries, and automobiles, while humanoid robot components are being positioned as a future growth direction. The report believes that against the backdrop of resilient demand for power and energy storage batteries in 2026 and ongoing industrialization of humanoid robots, the company's revenue and earnings are likely to maintain relatively fast growth.

Core views

The core views include: first, growing demand for power batteries and energy storage batteries will continue to support the battery structural parts business; second, new products such as sodium-ion battery structural parts are expected to benefit from customer product upgrades and improve the earnings mix; third, although the humanoid robot components business still depends on the overall maturity of the industry chain, it may bring long-term revenue contribution; fourth, the current valuation offers substantial upside relative to the target price, but risks related to lithium battery demand, trade friction, and the pace of robot industrialization should be monitored.

Analysis framework

The report analyzes industry demand data, the company's customer and capacity layout, revenue and profit forecasts, comparisons with Wind consensus expectations, and peer P/E valuations. For valuation, it uses the target price-to-earnings method, deriving the target price of CNY282.15 by multiplying 2026F EPS of CNY8.55 by a target P/E of 33x, and compares this at a discount to the peer average 2026E P/E of 76x.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsTarget P/E method

  33x 2026F P/E × 2026F EPS CNY8.55

  The report derives the target price of CNY282.15 using 2026F EPS of CNY8.55 and a target P/E of 33x. The target multiple is below the peer average, mainly reflecting lower earnings growth than peers and uncertainty in commercialization of new businesses.

• Peer comparisonComparable company valuation

  Peer average 2026E P/E is 76x

  Comparable companies include Suzhou Slake, Shenzhen Everwin Precision, and Ningbo Zhenyu Technology, all of which have exposure to structural parts or humanoid robot components businesses.

• Earnings forecastSegment-based growth forecast

  2026-28F revenue/net profit CAGR of 21%/30%

  The forecast is based on steady growth in battery structural parts, gradual volume ramp-up in humanoid robot components, improved product mix, and margin expansion.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• 002850.SZ Shenzhen Kedali Industrial

  Covered target in the report

  Strengths

  A leader in battery structural parts with a leading domestic and overseas customer base. Its core business benefits from growth in demand for power batteries and energy storage batteries, while it is also expanding into sodium-ion battery structural parts, humanoid robot components, and overseas capacity.

  Weaknesses

  The commercialization timeline of new businesses remains uncertain, 2026-28F earnings growth is below the peer average, and overseas expansion still faces approval, trade, and ramp-up risks.

  Comparison

  The report assigns 33x 2026F P/E, below the peer average of 76x 2026E P/E; the stock has underperformed the CSI 300 by 9.8 percentage points over the past month, which the report attributes to market concerns about slower commercialization of humanoid robots.

  Risks

  Lithium-ion battery demand weaker than expected, intensified trade friction, and slower-than-expected humanoid robot industrialization.

Key data

• RatingBuyInitiating coverage with a Buy rating.
• Target priceCNY 282.15Based on 33x 2026F P/E and 2026F EPS of CNY8.55.
• Closing priceCNY 182.28As of June 25, 2026.
• Implied upside+54.8%Calculated from the target price relative to the closing price.
• 2026-28F revenue/net profit CAGR21%/30%Reflecting steady growth in structural parts and gradual contribution from the robotics business.
• 2026/27/28F EPSCNY8.55/CNY11.26/CNY13.45Nomura earnings forecasts.
• 2026/27/28F net margin12.0%/13.8%/14.3%Higher than 11.6% in 2025, driven by improved product mix and stronger profitability from new businesses.
• 2026-28F lithium battery/automotive structural parts revenue CAGR20%/15%The report's growth forecast for the core structural parts business.
• China power/energy storage battery sales growthYoY +34.9%/+87.7% in the first 5 months of 2026Citing data from the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance.
• Humanoid robot revenue forecastCNY100mn/CNY350mn/CNY700mn (2026/27/28F)Mainly from shipments to domestic robotics companies using existing capacity.
• Thailand project investment scaleUp to CNY350mnPlanned harmonic reducer production base with target annual output value of about CNY700mn at full capacity, not yet included in 2026-28F earnings forecasts.
• Peer valuation76x 2026E P/EAverage level of comparable companies under Wind consensus expectations.
• Current valuation21.3x 2026F P/ECurrent trading multiple disclosed in the report.

Impact & implications

If demand for battery structural parts remains strong, energy storage demand continues to grow, and humanoid robot industrialization accelerates, Kedali may benefit from both resilient profitability in its core business and a valuation re-rating from new businesses. The target price implies significant upside, but the valuation discount in the report also indicates that the market still needs to verify commercialization of new businesses, overseas expansion, and the pace of earnings delivery.

Risks

• Weaker-than-expected downstream lithium-ion battery demand may worsen industry oversupply and transmit pricing and profitability pressure to Kedali's core battery structural parts business.
• If major overseas markets such as the EU and the US intensify trade friction or tariff measures against China's new energy industry, this may weaken the export price advantage of Chinese products and affect the company's overseas expansion.
• The industrialization process of humanoid robots may be slower than expected; slow progress in any link such as AI capabilities, motion control, or hardware may suppress industry development and the company's valuation.

What to watch

• Progress of overseas factory construction, approvals, and ramp-up.
• Whether energy storage battery demand continues to outperform expectations.
• The pace of humanoid robot mass production and shipments to domestic customers.
• Improvements in the company's product mix and profitability from new products such as sodium-ion battery structural parts.
• The impact of overseas tariffs and trade policy changes on China's new energy supply chain.