China EV Monthly Chartbook: Exports Remain the Bright Spot Amid the Summer Lull

Overview

This report is Jefferies' June 2026 monthly chartbook update on China's autos and auto parts sector, focusing on Chinese passenger vehicles, new energy vehicles, exports, regional share, pricing, new models, and changes in BAIC EV's valuation. The report shows that domestic demand remained weak in June, NEV penetration retreated from its peak, but exports stayed strong and reached another record high, becoming the key bright spot offsetting domestic demand pressure.

Core views

The core view is "weak domestic demand, strong exports, and continued pricing pressure." Domestic passenger vehicle wholesale and retail sales declined about 6% and 23% YoY, respectively, indicating persistent end-demand pressure; NEV wholesale rose 21.3% YoY, but domestic insurance penetration fell back to 60.3%. On exports, passenger vehicle exports increased 80.2% YoY to 904.5k units, and NEV exports rose 159.3% YoY to 510k units, with Chery, BYD, Geely, and SAIC continuing to dominate exports. In terms of market share, Leapmotor, Geely, and NIO stood out in 1H26, BYD faced pressure in domestic retail, and JV and luxury brands continued to lag.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses monthly tracking of sales, wholesale, retail, exports, insurance penetration, ASP, market share, and regional share, combined with the relative performance of Chinese local automakers versus JV/luxury brands, to assess the impact of industry demand, export momentum, price competition, and new model supply on company earnings and valuation.

Methodology notes

• Industry monthly trackingSales, export, and penetration chart tracking

  Measure industry conditions using monthly wholesale, retail, exports, NEV penetration, and regional market share.

  The report compares YoY and MoM changes using Jun-26 and 1H26 data, distinguishing domestic demand, export demand, and structural shifts between NEVs and ICE vehicles.

• Relative competitive analysisOEM share change analysis

  Identify winners and losers through changes in brand and regional share.

  The report focuses on comparing share changes among Leapmotor, Geely, NIO, BYD, Chery, SAIC, and JV/luxury brands to assess the competitive landscape and overseas expansion performance.

• Valuation methodsP/S valuation method

  BAIC EV's target price is based on 0.7x FY26E P/S.

  Jefferies lowered BAIC EV's target price to Rmb4.50, citing sales forecasts below market expectations and a year-to-date sector valuation reset in autos.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BAIC EV / 600733 CH

  The report focuses on this stock and provides a rating and target price

  Strengths

  Improving gross margin in the self-owned brand business has been incorporated into forecast revisions.

  Weaknesses

  FY26-FY27 sales forecasts are below market expectations, and the overall passenger vehicle market is still expected to face pressure next year.

  Comparison

  The target price is based on 0.7x FY26E P/S, in line with the industry average multiple.

  Risks

  Further weakening in industry demand, intensified price competition, or sales missing expectations could hinder target price realization.

• Geely / Geely+ZEEKR

  One of the winners in exports and market share

  Strengths

  1H26 exports grew 213%, and Jun-26 export share increased 5.8ppt YoY; YTD exports rose 155.3% YoY.

  Weaknesses

  Domestic retail still declined YoY, with the table showing YTD retail sales down 11.2% YoY.

  Comparison

  Among the major exporting automakers, Geely is described in the report as a clear winner.

  Risks

  Sustainability of export growth, overseas market competition, and weak domestic demand.

• Chery Group

  One of the leading exporting automakers

  Strengths

  YTD exports reached 914,859 units, up 72.47% YoY; share in Europe and Southeast Asia increased, and the report identifies it as one of the main share gainers.

  Weaknesses

  YTD retail sales fell 30.88% YoY, indicating clear domestic pressure.

  Comparison

  Together with BYD, Geely, and SAIC, it contributed about 67% of export shipments.

  Risks

  Overseas policy, intensifying competition, and weak domestic retail.

• BYD

  A leading exporting automaker and overseas share gainer

  Strengths

  YTD exports reached 769,330 units, up 73.6% YoY; share in Europe increased 0.8ppt, while Latin America and Southeast Asia were also major contributors to share gains.

  Weaknesses

  1H26 domestic retail sales declined 37.7% YoY, and the report says BYD continued to lose some domestic share.

  Comparison

  Along with Chery, Geely, and SAIC, it continued to dominate China's passenger vehicle exports.

  Risks

  Domestic price competition, share loss, and slower overseas growth.

• Leapmotor

  A standout in domestic share and sales performance

  Strengths

  1H26 retail sales grew 45% YoY, and Jun-26 rose 73% YoY to 70k units; YTD total sales increased 60.82% YoY.

  Weaknesses

  Export scale remains relatively small, with YTD exports of 96,294 units.

  Comparison

  The report describes it as one of the brands with the most notable market share gains in 1H26.

  Risks

  A high growth base, intensifying competition, and shifts in the product cycle.

• NIO

  A high-end NEV name with improving performance

  Strengths

  1H26 grew 68% YoY, and Jun-26 rose 88% YoY to 41k units; high-end NEV ASP increased 15% MoM to RMB443k.

  Weaknesses

  The export data table shows N/D, with support mainly coming from domestic retail performance.

  Comparison

  Along with Leapmotor and Geely, it was one of the share gainers in 1H26.

  Risks

  Competition in high-end NEVs, demand volatility in its price band, and earnings pressure.

Key data

• Jun-26 passenger vehicle wholesale volume2.402mn units; -5.3% YoY; +6.6% MoMThe report text summarizes this as about 2.4mn units and about -5.6% YoY; the table shows 2.402mn units and -5.3% YoY.
• Jun-26 passenger vehicle retail sales1.66mn units; -23% YoY; +13% MoMShows that domestic end-demand remains weak.
• Jun-26 new energy passenger vehicle wholesale volume1.517mn units; +21.3% YoY; +9.8% MoMNEVs are still growing, but domestic penetration retreated from the May peak.
• Domestic NEV insurance penetration60.3%Below May-26's 62.3%; BEV was 41.6% and PHEV was 18.7%.
• Jun-26 passenger vehicle exports904.5k units; +80.2% YoY; +11.7% MoMExports are the key highlight emphasized in the report.
• Jun-26 NEV exports510k units; +159.3% YoY; +17.3% MoMThe table shows YTD new energy passenger vehicle exports of 2.300mn units, with Jun-26 at 0.510mn units.
• Chinese brand share in Europe's passenger vehicle market9.1%Chinese brands continued to gain share in Europe's passenger vehicle market.
• Chinese brand share in Europe's NEV market19.7%Reflects higher penetration of Chinese brands in Europe's NEV market.
• Chinese OEM share in Southeast Asia15.4%The report says Southeast Asia share fell back to 15.4%, with NEV share around 56.3%.
• Chinese OEM share in Latin America16.3%Latin America is described as a region with deep Chinese brand penetration, with NEV sales share around 87%.
• Average retail ASPRMB170k; -2% MoM; flat YoYChina's NEV ASP fell 2% MoM and 9% YoY; price competition remains ongoing.
• BAIC EV rating and target priceHOLD; Rmb4.50 target price; previous Rmb8.40Current price is Rmb4.62; the target price was cut by about 46%.

Impact & implications

In terms of investment implications, strong export growth and overseas share gains support the long-term overseas expansion thesis for Chinese domestic brands, but weak domestic demand and price competition constrain industry earnings elasticity. Although NEV penetration remains high, it has retreated from its peak, suggesting that near-term incremental growth relies more on exports and structural winners. For BAIC EV, although Jefferies raised certain forecasts related to self-owned brand gross margin, it maintained HOLD and lowered the target price because FY26-FY27 sales forecasts remain below market expectations and sector valuation has been reset downward.

Risks

• Domestic passenger vehicle demand may continue to weaken, and YoY declines in wholesale and retail could drag on industry sales and earnings.
• NEV price competition remains intense, with China's NEV ASP down 9% YoY.
• Although export growth is strong, it could be affected by overseas policy, tariffs, regional competition, and a higher base.
• Weakness among JV and luxury brands may reflect pressure on mid-to-high-end demand and could also intensify the price war.
• BAIC EV sales forecasts are below market expectations, and if industry pressure persists, achieving the target price will become more difficult.

What to watch

• Whether domestic NEV insurance penetration can break above the May-26 peak of 62.3% again in coming months.
• Whether passenger vehicle exports can maintain a monthly level above 900k units, and whether the high YoY growth in NEV exports continues.
• Changes in export share for Geely, Chery, BYD, and SAIC, especially whether Geely's export share gains can continue.
• Market share changes and the policy environment for Chinese brands in Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the ANZ market.
• Changes in ASPs for Chinese NEVs and luxury brands, to judge whether the price war is easing.
• The impact of orders and pricing after the launches of new models such as Xiaomi EREV, Li Auto i9, Geely BattleShip 700, Chery iCAR V25, the new BYD Tang, and Denza Z9S.
• Changes in BAIC EV's FY26-FY27 sales, gross margin, and P/S valuation multiple.