Nearline HDD Demand and Higher Capacity per Drive Strengthen the Case for TDK Head Share Expansion

Overview

Based on second-quarter data released by Techno Systems Research (TSR) on August 12, 2026, this report tracks shipments, capacity, pricing, and market shares for HDD systems and key components. Its central conclusion is that sustained demand for nearline HDDs and increasing capacity are driving HDD head demand and creating conditions for TDK to gain share.

Core views

Although total HDD shipments were flat quarter over quarter, nearline HDDs sustained double-digit year-over-year growth. Combined with higher capacity per drive and average selling prices, this drove industry shipment value up 47% year over year. Head demand is also being driven by both rising nearline HDD unit volumes and more heads per drive. TDK has begun supplying two captive manufacturers; as these manufacturers limit expansion of conventional HDD-head capacity and reallocate existing capacity toward HAMR, the report believes TDK can continue gaining share among captive manufacturers.

Analysis framework

The analysis uses TSR quarterly industry shipment data, segmented by applications including nearline HDDs, and cross-analyzes system shipment volumes, shipment value, capacity, unit prices, cost per GB, spindle-motor shares, HGA head shipments, and heads per drive. Changes in TDK's head shipments and market share are also used to assess its competitive position.

Methodology notes

• Industry Data TrackingQuarterly Shipment and Component Breakdown Analysis

  Using third-party TSR data to measure changes in supply and demand for HDD systems and components

  By examining year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter trends, nearline HDD mix, capacity/unit pricing, and component usage per unit, the analysis identifies how high-capacity nearline HDDs drive demand for heads and related components.

• Competitive Landscape AnalysisMarket Share and Customer Adoption Tracking

  Assessing share expansion through TDK's head market share and progress in supplying captive manufacturers

  The report combines TDK's shipments, share, and expanded supply to two captive manufacturers with competitors' capacity reallocation toward HAMR to support its conclusion that TDK can gain share.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• TDK (6762.T)

  HDD head supplier, directly benefiting from higher nearline HDD capacity and rising head count per drive

  Strengths

  HGA shipments grew 34% year over year and market share rose to 14.6%; it has begun supplying two captive manufacturers and expanded supply for nearline applications; JPMorgan names it its top pick among HDD-related electronic-component stocks.

  Weaknesses

  Performance remains exposed to HDD industry cycles, customer qualification, and capacity-ramp timing.

  Comparison

  Relative to captive manufacturers, TDK is viewed as benefiting from their limits on expanding conventional HDD-head capacity and reallocation of part of their capacity toward HAMR.

  Risks

  Below-expectation nearline HDD demand, changes in HAMR transition timing, adjustments to customer procurement strategies, and competitors restoring conventional head capacity.

• Nidec (6594)

  HDD spindle motor supplier

  Strengths

  Held a leading 60.1% share of the spindle motor market in 2Q26.

  Weaknesses

  Spindle motor shipment growth was lower than HGA shipment growth.

  Comparison

  Together with MinebeaMitsumi, it covers the HDD spindle motor market, with shares of 60.1% and 39.9%, respectively.

  Risks

  Fluctuations in HDD system shipments and changes in product mix.

• MinebeaMitsumi (6479)

  HDD spindle motor supplier

  Strengths

  Held a 39.9% share of the spindle motor market in 2Q26.

  Weaknesses

  Market share is lower than Nidec's.

  Comparison

  Forms a duopoly in the HDD spindle motor market with Nidec.

  Risks

  Fluctuations in HDD system shipments and changes in the competitive landscape.

Key data

• Total HDD Shipments (2Q26)33.0 million units+9% year over year, flat quarter over quarter.
• Nearline HDD Shipments19.1 million units+16% year over year, +2% quarter over quarter.
• HDD Shipment Value$7,939 million+47% year over year, +14% quarter over quarter; nearline HDDs accounted for $6,912 million.
• Average HDD Selling Price$240.40+35% year over year, +14% quarter over quarter; the average nearline HDD selling price was $362.80.
• HDD Shipment Capacity504EB+29% year over year, +6% quarter over quarter; average capacity per drive was 15.3TB, +18% year over year.
• Nearline HDD vs. NAND Cost-per-GB Differential19.2xNearline HDD cost per GB was $0.014; the differential further widened from 4.8x in 2Q25 and 12.0x in 1Q26.
• HGA Head Shipments415 million units+19% year over year, +3% quarter over quarter; heads per HDD were 12.6.
• TDK HGA Head Shipments and Share60.6 million units; 14.6%Shipments were +34% year over year and +15% quarter over quarter; share increased from 13.0% in 2Q25 and 13.1% in 1Q26.
• HDD Spindle Motor Market ShareNidec 60.1%; MinebeaMitsumi 39.9%Spindle motor shipments in 2Q26 were 34.1 million units, +12% year over year and flat quarter over quarter.
• Toshiba HDD Shipment Value$873 million+55% year over year, +5% quarter over quarter.

Impact & implications

Growth in high-capacity nearline HDDs has enabled industry revenue growth to significantly outpace unit-shipment growth and amplified demand for HGAs through more heads per drive. The widening cost-per-GB differential between NAND and nearline HDDs also reinforces nearline HDDs' cost advantage in large-scale data-storage applications. For TDK, expanding customer adoption and competitors' constraints on conventional head capacity are catalysts for further share gains.

Risks

• Nearline HDD shipments or cloud data-center capital expenditures may fall short of expectations, weakening capacity upgrades and component demand.
• NAND pricing or technological changes may narrow nearline HDDs' cost advantage.
• Uncertainty around HAMR technology progress, yields, or capacity-transfer timing could alter conventional head supply-demand dynamics.
• TDK's supply expansion to captive manufacturers may fall short of expectations or face customer-concentration and qualification risks.
• The report publisher discloses conflicts of interest involving market making, client relationships, and potential investment-banking compensation related to TDK.

What to watch

• Changes in TSR's subsequent quarterly nearline HDD shipment volume, shipment capacity, and average selling prices.
• Whether nearline HDD capacity per drive and heads per nearline HDD continue to increase.
• TDK's HGA shipment volume, market share, and progress in supplying two captive manufacturers.
• The pace at which captive manufacturers shift conventional head capacity toward HAMR and its impact on the supply landscape.
• The continued evolution of the NAND-to-nearline HDD cost-per-GB differential.