GX SUV pricing is competitive, and XPeng's new orders rose significantly in May

Overview

This report is a company update from Deutsche Bank on XPeng (9868.HK), focusing on feedback from the GX SUV launch, May order growth, and the upcoming new vehicle product cycle. The report believes that through relatively competitive pricing, larger body size, and intensive marketing, the GX SUV achieved strong order performance in the early stage of launch and significantly improved the company's new orders in May.

Core views

The core view is that the GX SUV's RMB 270-350k pricing is relatively attractive, and it received 24,863 non-cancellable orders within the first 12 hours after launch; the company's total new orders in May are expected to be around 50,000 units, up 40% month-on-month and 10% year-on-year; orders for other models such as the Mona Mo3, P7+, X9, and G6 remained stable in May, indicating that the GX SUV made a particularly notable contribution to incremental orders.

Analysis framework

The report mainly assesses XPeng's order momentum and model cycle through new vehicle launch feedback, dealer research, Thinkercar weekly order data, comparisons of pricing and sales for comparable models, and subsequent product planning.

Methodology notes

• Order and product cycle analysisNew vehicle order and delivery ramp-up assessment

  Assess the strength of demand for a new vehicle through initial orders, pricing range, dealer feedback, and comparable model performance.

  The report combines the GX SUV's launch orders, expected monthly deliveries, and comparisons of pricing and sales with the X9 MPV to judge that the model may bring sustained incremental orders.

• Rating methodologyDeutsche Bank 12-month TSR framework

  The Buy rating is based on a 12-month total shareholder return perspective.

  The report appendix states that a Buy rating means investors are recommended to buy the stock based on the current 12-month TSR perspective.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• XPeng（9868.HK）

  Covered company, a Hong Kong-listed new energy vehicle company.

  Strengths

  The GX SUV had strong initial orders, competitive pricing, and a larger body size that improves ride comfort; new orders in May are expected to increase significantly, and the subsequent model pipeline is relatively rich.

  Weaknesses

  Premiumization-driven growth depends on the continued execution of new model launches, and making some premium features optional may affect consumer perception and the revenue mix.

  Comparison

  The GX SUV is priced below the X9 MPV, which shares the same platform, and the X9 has averaged about 3,000 units in monthly sales year-to-date; based on this, the report believes there is support for the GX to achieve around 5,000 units in average monthly deliveries.

  Risks

  Order conversion falling short of expectations, delivery ramp-up slower than expected, marketing spending dragging on margins, and intensifying competition in China's new energy vehicle market.

Key data

• Report date2026-05-26Disclosed on the first page of the main text as Date 26May 2026.
• Analyst ratingBuyThe first page discloses Rating Buy.
• GX SUV pricingRMB 270-350kThe report says this price range is competitive, with some premium features made optional to keep the official price accessible.
• GX SUV launch orders24,863 ordersNationwide non-cancellable orders within the first 12 hours after launch, with a deposit of RMB 5,000 per order.
• GX SUV body dimensionsLength 5,265 mm, width 1,999 mm, height 1,800 mm, wheelbase 3,115 mmThe report believes the larger size helps improve ride comfort.
• May new order forecastAbout 50,000 unitsThe report expects a 40% increase versus April and a 10% increase versus the same period last year.
• April weekly ordersAbout 6.8k, 6.3k, 5.4k, 28.8kThe data source is Thinkercar, corresponding to the first through fourth weeks of April.
• Expected monthly deliveries of the GX SUVAbout 5,000 unitsDealer expectations are consistent with the report's assessment.
• X9 MPV comparisonPriced at RMB 310-370k, with average monthly sales of about 3,000 units year-to-dateThe report states that the GX SUV shares its platform with the X9, but the GX is priced lower.
• G9L launch timing3Q 2026Positioned as an ultra-large five-seat SUV and a sister model to the GX SUV.
• Expected monthly sales of G9LAbout 4,000 unitsThe report provides this estimate based on the model's size and positioning.
• Subsequent product planMona L05, Mona L03, Mo5The Mona L05 and Mona L03 are planned for launch in 2H 2026, while the Mo5 is expected to launch in 2027.

Impact & implications

If GX SUV orders can continue converting into deliveries, XPeng is expected to strengthen its penetration in the premium SUV price band and improve its monthly order and delivery cadence. Subsequent models such as the G9L and the Mona series will determine whether the product cycle can continue, while marketing spend, optional-feature strategy, and competitive intensity will affect sales quality, ASP, and margin performance.

Risks

• If the GX SUV's initial orders cannot be converted steadily into deliveries, the expectation of about 5,000 units in average monthly deliveries may face downward revision.
• High-intensity marketing spending may compress near-term margins.
• Making some premium features optional may affect user perception, configuration choices, and the revenue mix per vehicle.
• If subsequent models such as the G9L, Mona L05, Mona L03, and Mo5 are delayed or see weaker-than-expected demand, support for the product cycle will weaken.
• Price competition and competition from new model launches in China's new energy vehicle market may still affect sales volume, ASP, and gross margin.

What to watch

• Whether subsequent GX SUV order conversion and monthly deliveries can reach about 5,000 units.
• After roughly 50,000 new orders in May, whether orders in June and subsequent months can sustain growth.
• Whether orders for other models such as the Mona Mo3, P7+, X9, and G6 continue to remain stable.
• The launch timing, pricing, and initial order performance of the G9L in 3Q 2026.
• The product launch progress of the Mona L05 and Mona L03 in 2H 2026 and the Mo5 in 2027.
• The impact of optional-feature strategy, marketing expenses, and price competition on ASP and margins.