Nomura expects the USD/CNY central parity to fall to 6.7685

Overview

This is a short-term FX forecast report by Nomura on the USD/CNY RMB central parity. The core conclusion is that the model forecasts the next central parity at 6.7685, below the previous 6.7939, indicating a stronger RMB bias in the central parity direction. If the countercyclical factor is included, the forecast is 6.7741, still below the previous central parity.

Core views

The core view centers on the daily forecast for the RMB central parity: the model excluding the countercyclical factor forecasts 6.7685, 254 pips below the previous value; relative to the previous official onshore spot close, it is 59 pips lower. After including the countercyclical factor, the forecast is 6.7741, 198 pips below the previous central parity. The report does not provide equity or bond trading recommendations; it mainly serves as an FX strategy and central parity model signal.

Analysis framework

The report uses a USD/CNY central parity model for forecasting and separately presents two sets of results: excluding the countercyclical factor and including the countercyclical factor. The material also mentions overnight weighted contributions, recent model errors, daily changes in the USD/CNY central parity, and a macro event calendar to help explain the drivers of forecast changes and subsequent risk events.

Methodology notes

• FX pricing modelUSD/CNY central parity model

  Estimate the next fixing level of the RMB central parity based on the model

  The report directly gives the model forecast of 6.7685 and compares the pip differences versus the previous 6.7939 and the previous official onshore spot close.

• Policy factor adjustmentCountercyclical factor adjustment

  Forecast result after adding the countercyclical factor to the base central parity model

  After adding the countercyclical factor, the model forecast is 6.7741, 198 pips lower than the previous central parity, a smaller decline than that of the base model.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• USD/CNY

  Direct subject of research

  Strengths

  The report provides a clear point forecast and discloses both the base model and the countercyclical-factor-adjusted results.

  Weaknesses

  The effective analytical content in the main text is relatively brief, and chart details and model variable weights are not fully presented.

  Comparison

  The base model forecasts 6.7685, while the forecast after adding the countercyclical factor is 6.7741; both are below the previous 6.7939.

  Risks

  Model error, changes in policy pricing bias, USD moves, event risk, and market liquidity may all cause the actual central parity to deviate from the forecast.

• RMB FX exposure

  Indirectly affected asset

  Strengths

  The signal of a lower central parity can serve as a short-term reference for RMB risk management.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide explicit trading direction, stop-loss, or position recommendations.

  Comparison

  A lower USD/CNY central parity usually corresponds to a stronger RMB relative to the USD.

  Risks

  Macro events, policy meetings, PBoC communication, and changes in US-China relations may alter FX expectations.

Key data

• Base model forecast6.7685254 pips lower than the previous 6.7939.
• Previous value6.7939The previous central parity level used for comparison in the report.
• Relative to the previous official onshore spot close59 pips lowerThe difference between the base model forecast and the previous official onshore spot close.
• Forecast including the countercyclical factor6.7741198 pips lower than the previous central parity.
• Report date2026-07-27Shown in the filename and metadata date.

Impact & implications

A forecast below the previous value implies that the model points to a stronger RMB central parity or a lower USD/CNY fixing level. If market pricing deviates from the model forecast, it may affect short-term RMB trading, FX risk exposure management, and judgments about the PBoC's pricing bias. The countercyclical-factor version of the forecast is still below the previous value, but the magnitude of the decline is more moderate than in the base model.

Risks

• The central parity model may have forecast errors, and the report also presents charts related to recent model errors.
• The countercyclical factor and policy pricing bias may alter the deviation of the actual central parity from the model.
• Chinese policy meetings, the PBoC monetary policy report, and high-level US-China interactions may bring RMB volatility.
• The report discloses that this material contains forecasts and model estimates; past performance or simulated results are not reliable indicators of future performance.

What to watch

• China Politburo economic work meeting in late July 2026.
• PBoC Q2 2026 monetary policy report in mid-August 2026.
• President Xi's state visit to the United States on September 24, 2026.
• PBoC Monetary Policy Committee meeting in late September 2026.
• China National Day Golden Week holiday from October 1 to 7, 2026.