China and Japan machinery exports accelerated in April, with developed markets strengthening while emerging markets diverged

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' April 2026 update on its China and Japan machinery export tracker, with a core focus on the signaling value of excavator export volume and export value for global construction machinery demand. The report notes that developed markets clearly accelerated in April, supported by a surge in China exports and steady Japan exports; emerging markets, by contrast, showed divergence, with South America and Africa accelerating, Southeast Asia continuing to slow, and the Middle East remaining weak though with a narrower decline.

Core views

Core views include: first, combined export volume and value from China and Japan both accelerated versus March, indicating improving external demand for global construction machinery; second, developed markets such as North America and Europe were the highlights this month; third, demand improved in South America and Africa, but Southeast Asia and the Middle East still require monitoring; fourth, excavator export data has high correlation with quarterly revenue and regional demand data for major global construction machinery companies and can serve as a high-frequency tracking tool.

Analysis framework

The report analyzes monthly excavator export volume, export value, and destination-region breakdowns for China and Japan, comparing yoy growth, regional contributions, and historical trends, and back-tests the correlation between export data and the quarterly sales revenue of construction machinery companies such as Caterpillar, Volvo, CNH, Komatsu, Kubota, and Takeuchi, as well as actual market demand tracked by Komatsu.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency industry indicatorChina and Japan Excavator Export Tracker

  Use export volume and export value to observe changes in global construction machinery demand

  The report believes excavators account for about 50% of global construction machinery demand, and China and Japan are important sources of global excavator supply; therefore, export data from the two countries can serve as a high-frequency proxy for global construction machinery sales and demand.

• Demand proxy and regional mappingDestination-region export breakdown

  Map demand in different regions by export destination

  Japan's exports are representative of demand in North America and Western Europe, while China's exports are more representative of demand in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and South America; combining exports from both countries can reduce noise caused by shifts in supply origin.

• Back-test validationCorrelation analysis between export data and company sales/market demand

  Use historical correlation to test tracker effectiveness

  The report shows that the quarterly sales revenue of major covered companies has high correlation with export data series, with CAT showing the highest correlation at 0.86-0.91; the correlation between export data and historical market demand trends in major regions tracked by Komatsu is 0.64-0.79.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Global construction machinery sector

  Export volume and value are high-frequency proxy indicators of demand momentum

  Strengths

  In April, combined export volume and value from China and Japan both accelerated, with clear improvement in North America and Europe.

  Weaknesses

  Export data is not end-market sales and may be affected by supply-origin shifts, inventories, exchange rates, and product mix.

  Comparison

  Developed markets performed better than weaker regions such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

  Risks

  If export growth slows in subsequent periods or regional demand diverges again, the sector momentum view may be revised down.

• Caterpillar (CAT)

  One of the global construction machinery companies with the highest correlation to export data

  Strengths

  The report says CAT's correlation with export data is 0.86-0.91, and North America revenue is significantly correlated with Japan excavator export value.

  Weaknesses

  Correlation does not equal revenue recognition, and company revenue is also affected by pricing, services, product mix, and channel inventory.

  Comparison

  Compared with some peers, CAT shows higher correlation in the report's back-test.

  Risks

  If North America demand does not persist, or if export data decouples from the company's actual orders, the signaling value will weaken.

• Volvo, CNH, Komatsu, Takeuchi

  Regional revenue has high correlation with Japan export data

  Strengths

  The report notes that these companies' North America regional revenue is significantly correlated with Japan excavator export value.

  Weaknesses

  Regional and product structures differ widely across companies, and a single export indicator cannot fully explain revenue.

  Comparison

  Japan exports are more representative of North America and Western Europe, while China exports are more representative of some emerging markets.

  Risks

  Regional demand divergence, exchange rates, and supply chain changes may reduce the stability of historical correlations.

• Kubota

  Europe revenue has relatively higher correlation with export data

  Strengths

  The report mentions that Kubota's Europe revenue is relatively more reflective of correlation with export data.

  Weaknesses

  Kubota's product mix differs from other major construction machinery companies, and excavator export indicators do not provide full coverage.

  Comparison

  Compared with peers that are more strongly correlated with North America, Kubota requires closer attention to Europe export and demand changes.

  Risks

  If Europe demand falls back, related revenue validation may come under pressure.

• China and Japan excavator export data

  Underlying data asset for tracking global construction machinery demand

  Strengths

  High monthly frequency, clear regional breakdowns, and historically high correlation with company sales and market demand.

  Weaknesses

  Some charts and historical tables contain noise, and export data can be affected by supply origin, tariffs, inventories, and exchange rates.

  Comparison

  Combining China and Japan data reduces the risk of misjudgment from supply migration better than looking at one country's exports alone.

  Risks

  The report notes that the correlation of monthly export volume between China and Japan rose after March 2020, but divergence has emerged since April 2024 and requires continued validation.

Key data

• China export value+22% yoy in April 2026March was +16%, indicating faster growth in China's export value.
• Japan export value+28% yoy in JPY terms in April 2026March was +13%, showing a clear improvement in Japan's export value growth.
• Combined export value of China and Japan+20% yoy in USD terms in April 2026March was +12%, with the combined measure showing improving global external demand.
• Combined export volume of China and Japan+37% yoy in April 2026March was +13%; China's export volume rose +43% yoy, while Japan's export volume maintained growth above 20%.
• North America export volume/value+59%/+20% yoyNorth America export volume rebounded from -4% in March, while value growth accelerated from +15% in March to +20%.
• Europe export volume/value+50%/+19% yoyMainly driven by accelerated China exports, with China's export volume/value to Europe at +58%/+22% yoy.
• South America export volume/value+72%/+38% yoyMarch was +47%/+17%, with both China and Japan exports improving.
• Southeast Asia export volume/value+5%/-1% yoyThis slowed further from +11%/+10% in March, with value turning negative yoy.
• Middle East and Africa export volume/value+7%/+25% yoyAfrica at +44%/+59% yoy offset weak Middle East performance of -25%/-17%.
• OceaniaBoth volume and value grew more than 30% yoyThe report says Oceania remained solid in April.
• Representativeness of excavator demandAccounts for about 50% of global construction machinery demandAn important basis for the report's use of excavators as a high-frequency proxy for construction machinery demand.
• Representativeness of China and Japan supplyAccounts for about 70% of global demand outside China and Japan; some measures show above 80%OHR data points to about 70%, while China Customs and Japan Ministry of Finance data point to above 80%.
• Company sales correlationCAT highest correlation is 0.86-0.91The report says quarterly sales revenue of machinery companies in its global coverage is generally highly correlated with export data series.
• Market demand correlation0.64-0.79Export data has high correlation with historical market demand trends in major regions published by Komatsu with a three-month lag.
• 2025 export destination structureThe largest destination for China exports is Europe, followed by North America; the largest destination for Japan exports is North America at 44%, with Europe at 35%This shows that China and Japan have different regional export structures and need to be analyzed together to reduce noise from supply migration.

Impact & implications

This tracker has a moderately positive high-frequency signaling implication for the construction machinery sector: improving demand in developed markets such as North America and Europe may support revenue momentum for global construction machinery companies; the acceleration in South America and Africa indicates resilience in some emerging markets; however, the slowdown in Southeast Asia and weakness in the Middle East suggest regional demand remains uneven. Since the report does not provide stock ratings or target prices, its investment implication is more suitable as a tracking clue for industry momentum, regional demand, and subsequent quarterly revenue verification.

Risks

• Export data is a demand proxy rather than end sales or orders, and may be affected by inventories, channel restocking, exchange rates, and product mix.
• The export roles of China and Japan may shift, and looking at only one country's data may misjudge regional demand.
• Southeast Asia value turned negative yoy, and the Middle East remains in negative growth, indicating uneven momentum across emerging markets.
• The correlation of monthly export volume between China and Japan has diverged since April 2024, and historical correlation may weaken.
• Some tables and charts in the report contain noise after text extraction, and detailed figures should be based on the original charts.

What to watch

• Whether combined export volume and value from China and Japan can maintain value growth above 20% and volume growth above 30% in subsequent months.
• Whether the acceleration in developed markets such as North America and Europe can be reflected in quarterly revenue for global construction machinery companies.
• Whether high growth in South America and Africa can continue, or whether it is driven by a low base or short-term orders.
• Whether the negative yoy value trend in Southeast Asia widens, and whether the decline in the Middle East continues to narrow.
• Whether Japan export trends and China export trends continue to diverge, and the implications for regional demand mapping.
• The validation relationship between subsequent quarterly sales of CAT, Volvo, CNH, Komatsu, Kubota, and Takeuchi and the export tracker.