Comparison of Top Five Humanoid Robot Makers: Unitree Leads in Profitability, Large Models Become Key Competitive Factor

Overview

This report provides an in-depth comparison of five humanoid robot and embodied AI manufacturers: Unitree, UBTECH, DEEP Robotics, Dobot, and Leju. The core viewpoint is 'coexistence of opportunities and risks': On one hand, the global humanoid robot market has huge potential (projected to reach $1 trillion by 2050), and Chinese manufacturers have advantages in hardware manufacturing and cost control; on the other hand, the industry is entering an arms race for large models, with surging R&D expenses putting pressure on short-term profits, and geopolitical factors (such as the US Entity List) bringing uncertainty. Unitree leads in profitability due to its extremely high vertical integration capabilities, while other manufacturers like UBTECH and Dobot remain unprofitable. The report slightly上调s (increases) global market forecasts for 2026-2029 and focuses on analyzing each company's technology paths, application scenarios, and supply chain layouts.

Core views

Revenue and profitability diverge significantly, with Unitree leading but growth slowing. In 2025, Unitree achieved the highest revenue in both humanoid and quadruped robots, with humanoid robot revenue reaching approximately 868 million RMB, followed closely by UBTECH at 821 million RMB. Unitree stands out with a gross margin of up to 60% and a recurring net margin of 35%, primarily due to its extremely high ratio of self-research and self-production (external procurement costs account for only 14%-18% of total costs). In contrast, UBTECH, Dobot, and Leju recorded net losses between 2022 and 2025, with UBTECH's adjusted net margin dropping to -35% in 2025. However, as Unitree's base expands and it increases investment in large models, its expected H1 2026 revenue growth will slow from 333% in 2025 to 41%, with recurring net profit declining year-on-year by 14%. Differences in Technology Paths: Hardware Self-Research vs. Algorithm Priority. Unitree emphasizes full-stack hardware self-research, including motors, reducers, actuators, and LiDAR, building a deep hardware moat. UBTECH's core advantage lies in high-torque servo drives and algorithms, while DEEP focuses on system architecture and algorithms. Regarding large models, the industry trend has shifted from pure hardware to 'embodied large models', with Unitree, UBTECH, and Dobot all having released relevant models. Unitree plans to dedicate half of its 4.2 billion RMB IPO proceeds (2 billion RMB) specifically to robot model development, showing determination to transition towards software-defined robots. Application Scenarios: Quadrupeds More Mature, Humanoids in Early Stages. Quadruped robots have achieved scaled applications in industrial scenarios such as power grid inspection and dangerous environment monitoring; 80% of DEEP's quadruped robots are deployed in actual scenarios. In contrast, the commercialization of humanoid robots is still in its early stages. In 2025, 76% of Unitree's humanoid robot sales were used for scientific research and education, and about 45% of UBTECH's orders were for data collection. However, the proportion of industrial applications is rising; Unitree's share of industrial applications for humanoid robots increased from 0% in 2024 to 9% in 2025, and UBTECH also secured orders from automotive plants such as Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor and Geely. Going Global Becomes an Important Growth Driver. Chinese embodied AI products demonstrate competitiveness globally; Unitree's overseas revenue accounted for a high 44% in 2025, while UBTECH and DEEP reached 24% and 18% respectively. UBTECH has even entered the supply chains of Airbus and Texas Instruments, marking that its products are beginning to enter the core links of high-end manufacturing.

Analysis framework

The report adopts a horizontal comparative analysis method, breaking down five leading enterprises across seven dimensions: revenue structure, profitability, manufacturing processes, large model progress, application scenarios, geographic distribution, and management teams. Through prospectus data and channel research, it quantifies the financial performance and technology investment of each company. Simultaneously, combining a global macro perspective, it analyzes the impact of China-US relations on supply chains and large model independence, and top-down revises global humanoid robot shipment forecasts to assess overall industry Beta opportunities.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkUpstream/Midstream/Downstream Transmission in Industrial Chain

  Impact of Vertical Integration Degree on Cost Structure

  The research report demonstrates how upstream core component self-research translates into downstream product cost advantages and pricing power by analyzing the relationship between Unitree's high self-research rate (low external procurement ratio) and its high gross margin. This is a common source of competitive advantage in hardware manufacturing.

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkPenetration Rate S-Curve

  Judgment of Humanoid Robot Commercialization Stage

  The research report defines the current state of humanoid robots being mainly applied in scientific research, education, and data collection as an early commercialization stage, while defining the large-scale application of quadruped robots in industrial inspection as a mature period, helping investors understand the growth rhythm and risk characteristics of different sub-sectors.

• Event Game Theory and Behavioral FinanceExpectation Gap/Expectation Management

  Squeeze on Short-Term Profits by Large Model Investments

  The research report points out that the market may underestimate the expensive costs and necessity of developing embodied AI large models. Although Unitree has good profitability, its short-term profits declined due to increased model investments, prompting investors to balance expectations between long-term technology barrier construction and short-term financial performance.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SS)

  Beneficiary target, Deutsche Bank assigns Buy rating

  Strengths

  Precision machining expertise, expected to expand from ball screws to high ASP linear actuators

  Comparison

  Deutsche Bank assumes its 35% market share in body ball screws and 5% in linear actuators by 2030

• Shuanghuan Driveline (002472.SZ)

  Beneficiary target, Deutsche Bank assigns Buy rating

  Strengths

  Co-developing robot reducers with Tesla for over three years

  Weaknesses

  Core business of EV gears faces pressure in 2026

  Comparison

  New businesses include traditional robot reducers and smart actuators

• Harmonic Drive Systems (6324.T)

  Beneficiary target, Deutsche Bank assigns Buy rating

  Strengths

  Key reducer supplier for humanoid robots outside China, actuator ASP is 3 times that of reducers

  Comparison

  Benefits from growth in space and semiconductor sectors

• Tesla (TSLA.US)

  Beneficiary target, Deutsche Bank assigns Buy rating

  Strengths

  Optimus vertically integrated design, hand hardware bottleneck resolved, computing power enhanced

  Comparison

  Expected increase in internal deployment by Q4 2026, external sales by end of 2027/early 2028

• Mobileye (MBLY.US)

  Beneficiary target, Deutsche Bank assigns Buy rating

  Strengths

  Launched low-cost humanoid robot after acquiring Mentee Robotics, BOM cost expected to drop to $25,000

  Comparison

  Sales volume may reach thousands of units in 2028-29

Key data

• 2025 Global Humanoid Robot Shipment Forecast~17,500 unitsChina is the main market, expected to exceed 15,000 units
• 2026E Global Humanoid Robot Shipment Forecast~49,650 unitsDeutsche Bank slightly increases forecasts for 2026-2029
• Unitree 2025 Gross Margin60%Far higher than the peer average of 30-35%
• Unitree 2025 Recurring Net Margin35%Most peers are losing money
• Unitree 2026H1 Revenue Growth Guidance+41% YoYSignificant slowdown from 333% in 2025
• Unitree IPO Proceeds Used for Model Development2 billion RMBAccounts for half of the total IPO proceeds of 4.2 billion RMB
• Unitree 2025 Overseas Revenue Share44%Shows global competitiveness

Impact & implications

For the industry, the report believes that Chinese manufacturers are occupying an important position globally凭借 (by virtue of) cost-effectiveness and rapid iteration capabilities, but the gap in large model capabilities may become a new dividing line. For investors, attention should be paid to manufacturers that can maintain hardware cost advantages while effectively implementing large model applications. On the supply chain side, leading suppliers in links such as linear actuators, reducers, and sensors (such as Hengli Hydraulic, Shuanghuan Driveline, Leader Harmonious Drive Systems, etc.) will benefit from industry volume expansion. Regarding risks, US sanctions on Chinese tech companies (such as Unitree being listed on the military enterprise list) may accelerate Chinese manufacturers' pursuit of autonomous and controllable large models and core chips, while also bringing export uncertainties.

Risks

• High costs of large model training and data collection erode short-term profits
• Intensified industry competition may lead to price wars and decreased gross margins
• Uncertainty in China-US relations; US sanctions may affect supply chains and overseas markets
• Commercialization process of humanoid robots slower than expected, hindering expansion of industrial application scenarios

What to watch

• Actual implementation effects and generalization capabilities of each manufacturer's large models
• IPO progress and use of proceeds for planned listing enterprises such as Unitree and UBTECH
• Mass production progress of Tesla Optimus and other overseas giants
• Increase in penetration rate of humanoid robots in industrial scenarios such as automobile manufacturing