BMY's second-quarter commercial trends remain solid, but the stock is still anchored to key year-end clinical readouts

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' preview of Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.'s 2Q26 results. Goldman Sachs expects the company to sustain its solid commercial execution from recent quarters, with 2Q26 revenue and EPS slightly above market consensus, and believes Growth Portfolio momentum and cost optimization could provide room for an upward revision to 2026 revenue and earnings guidance. However, the report emphasizes that the core near-term stock narrative is not quarterly results themselves, but rather several key clinical events around year-end, particularly the timing and outcome of the milvexian AF readout.

Core views

The core view is that BMY's fundamentals should remain solid in the near term, but the stock's risk/reward is relatively balanced. Commercially, Growth Portfolio products including Opdivo Qvantig, Breyanzi, Orencia, and Reblozyl support revenue; Eliquis demand is still growing approximately 5% year over year, and pricing tailwinds from the WAC reduction beginning in 3Q26 could support full-year growth near the high end of guidance. However, Sotyktu is under significant prescription pressure due to competition from JNJ's Icotyde, while Cobenfy's ramp remains steady without clear acceleration. For valuation, Goldman Sachs applies a 9.5x multiple to Q5-Q8 EPS estimates to derive a 12-month target price of $61, and maintains Neutral because the stock is slightly above the range it considers to offer a more balanced risk/reward.

Analysis framework

The report combines earnings preview analysis, prescription trend tracking, product sales modeling, management communications, and relative valuation. Goldman Sachs compares its 2Q26 revenue, EPS, and key product sales forecasts with VA Consensus, while incorporating IQVIA prescription data, the 1Q26 earnings call, and recent management commentary from NDRs to assess the impact of Growth Portfolio products, legacy products, and pipeline catalysts on full-year guidance and the stock price.

Methodology notes

• equity_researchEarnings Preview

  Earnings Preview

  Forecast revenue, EPS, product-line performance, management guidance, and investor focus points before the formal earnings release, and compare them with market consensus.

• Valuation methodsForward P/E Multiple

  Forward P/E Valuation

  Goldman Sachs applies a 9.5x multiple to Q5-Q8 EPS estimates to derive a 12-month target price of $61 for BMY.

• data_trackingIQVIA Prescription Trend Analysis

  Prescription Trend Analysis

  Use IQVIA prescription data to observe product-level trends including Opdivo Qvantig conversions, declining Sotyktu prescriptions, the Cobenfy ramp, Eliquis demand, and Revlimid erosion.

• risk_assessmentClinical Catalyst Scenario Analysis

  Clinical Catalyst Scenario Analysis

  Assess the potential impact of success, delays, or failure of milvexian AF and other 4Q26 clinical readouts on valuation and stock-price volatility.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY)

  Covered company; Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating

  Strengths

  Solid commercial momentum across the Growth Portfolio, with Opdivo Qvantig, Breyanzi, Orencia, and Reblozyl potentially driving revenue upside; Eliquis demand remains growing, and cost optimization could support earnings.

  Weaknesses

  Sotyktu prescriptions are declining due to competitive pressure, Cobenfy has not shown clear acceleration, Revlimid continues to face significant prescription erosion, and foreign-exchange headwinds could also weigh on guidance.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs' 2Q26 revenue and EPS forecasts are slightly above consensus; the stock is up 15% year to date, above the DRG's 10% gain.

  Risks

  Key risks include clinical readouts for milvexian AF and Cobenfy in Alzheimer's disease psychosis, weaker-than-expected Growth Portfolio performance, faster-than-expected erosion in the legacy business, and greater-than-expected LOE and IRA impacts.

• milvexian AF

  An important pipeline asset partnered by BMY and JNJ and a key binary catalyst for the stock

  Strengths

  A successful Phase 3 readout could raise medium- to long-term revenue expectations and drive valuation multiple expansion.

  Weaknesses

  The readout could be delayed until 2027, and the implications of a slower event rate for the probability of success remain debated.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs estimates that the program represents an approximately 11%-13% stock-price volatility factor in its valuation, making it one of BMY's most important recent clinical variables.

  Risks

  Poor clinical results or obstacles in the regulatory pathway could lead to downward revisions to valuation and medium- to long-term expectations.

• Growth Portfolio

  The primary product portfolio supporting 2Q26 revenue and a potential upward revision to full-year guidance

  Strengths

  Opdivo Qvantig conversion is accelerating, while trends for Breyanzi, Orencia, and Reblozyl are relatively positive.

  Weaknesses

  Sotyktu is facing competitive pressure from Icotyde, and the Cobenfy ramp has not clearly accelerated.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs' forecasts for some Growth Portfolio products are above consensus, but its forecast for Sotyktu is below consensus.

  Risks

  If Growth Portfolio revenue growth falls below expectations, the potential for an upward revision to full-year guidance and earnings estimates would be reduced.

Key data

• 2Q26 revenue forecast$11.9bnGoldman Sachs' forecast, above VA Consensus of $11.7bn.
• 2Q26 EPS forecast$1.61Slightly above market consensus of $1.60.
• 12-month target price$61Based on applying a 9.5x multiple to Q5-Q8 EPS estimates.
• Current stock priceApproximately $62The report cites a current stock price of approximately $62, up 15% year to date versus a 10% gain for the DRG.
• milvexian AF valuation sensitivity11%-13%Goldman Sachs estimates that milvexian AF represents an approximately 11%-13% volatility factor in its valuation.
• 2026/2027/2028 EPS forecasts$6.44/$6.45/$5.30Previously $6.37/$6.47/$5.15; the adjustment reflects prescription trends and recent company commentary.
• Opdivo IV-to-SubQ conversion rateApproximately 12%IQVIA indicates a 2Q26 conversion rate of approximately 12%, up from approximately 10% in 1Q26, 6% in 4Q25, 4% in 3Q25, and 2% in 2Q25.
• Sotyktu prescription trendTRx -26% Y/YQuarterly prescriptions declined 26% year over year in 2Q26, significantly weaker than the 21% year-over-year growth in 1Q26, reflecting the impact of the Icotyde launch.
• Eliquis demand trendApproximately +5% Y/YIQVIA indicates approximately 5% year-over-year growth in 2Q26; company full-year growth guidance is 10%-15%, which Goldman Sachs believes is likely to be near the high end.
• Revlimid prescription trendTRx -69% Y/YPrescriptions declined 69% year over year in 2Q26 and 29% sequentially from 1Q26, although branded persistence remains present in certain high-net-price channels.

Impact & implications

For investment implications, 2Q26 results themselves could be modestly positive, particularly if revenue, EPS, and a potential upward revision to full-year guidance provide near-term support. However, Goldman Sachs believes the primary sources of stock-price volatility will be clinical catalysts and expectations for business-development transactions. If the milvexian AF readout is delayed until 2027, the market may interpret this as a positive signal reflecting a slower event rate, or as the temporary removal of the largest near-term binary risk; Goldman Sachs cautions that a delay should not be equated simply with project success. Because the current stock price already reflects a relatively optimistic probability of clinical success, the subsequent risk/reward is not clearly skewed to the upside.

Risks

• Growth Portfolio revenue growth falls below expectations, particularly if Cobenfy, Camzyos, Reblozyl, Opdualag, or Breyanzi underperform Goldman Sachs' expectations.
• Erosion of the legacy product portfolio is faster than expected, especially if LOE and IRA implementation have a greater negative impact on base-business revenue.
• Sotyktu remains under pressure from competition with JNJ's Icotyde.
• Key pipeline programs, such as Cobenfy in Alzheimer's disease psychosis and milvexian AF, produce unfavorable clinical or regulatory outcomes.
• Foreign-exchange headwinds could offset part of the commercial momentum.
• The current stock price already reflects much of the expectation for milvexian AF success, and an unfavorable event path could lead to valuation retracement.

What to watch

• Revenue, EPS, and changes to 2026 full-year guidance when BMY releases its 2Q26 results on July 30.
• Whether management raises 2026 revenue or earnings guidance and the concrete progress of cost optimization.
• The continued pace of Opdivo Qvantig conversion from IV to SubQ.
• Whether Sotyktu prescriptions recover or continue to decline following competition from Icotyde.
• Whether the Cobenfy prescription ramp begins to accelerate.
• Eliquis growth trends after pricing tailwinds from the WAC reduction begin to appear in 3Q26.
• Whether the milvexian AF Phase 3 readout remains scheduled for YE26 or is delayed until 2027.
• The impact of other 4Q26 clinical readouts and potential business-development transactions on the investor narrative.