Cash digitization is not over, but the growth algorithm for payment networks is changing
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Cash digitization is not over, but the growth algorithm for payment networks is changing
Bernstein expects global card payment volume to grow by about 8% in constant currency and transaction counts by about 9% in 2025-2030E. The long-term opportunity for V/MA is increasingly driven by transaction counts, VAS, tokenization, new payment flows, and regional penetration rather than simply relying on U.S. cash-to-card conversion.
- Global card purchase volume is expected to grow about 8% in constant currency in 2025-2030E, below the historical growth rate of about 9% in 2022-2025, mainly because U.S. penetration is already high and local market dynamics in Asia are a drag.
- The global C2B payments market is about $40 trillion, with card penetration at about 64% in 2025; the report still estimates about $11 trillion of global cash/check opportunity.
- Transaction counts are expected to grow 9% globally in 2025-2030E, and more than one-third of V/MA total revenue comes from transaction count-related revenue. Growth in transaction counts and tokenization helps extend the revenue growth curve.
- Europe, LATAM, and MEA remain the main sources of further penetration gains; Europe also has share opportunity from a shift away from local domestic schemes toward V/MA.
- A2A, local payment methods, and stablecoins are risk variables, but the report believes stablecoins in retail consumer payments over the next five years look more like 'a solution in search of a problem,' and overall A2A risk is manageable.
Report interpretation
Overview
This is an in-depth industry report on the long-term growth runway of the global payments industry. The report updates the 12th edition of its global payments forecast model, with the core question being whether cash digitization can still support growth for card schemes and payment networks. The conclusion is that while card payment volume growth is slowing versus history, the stock of cash/checks, higher regional penetration, transaction count growth, VAS, tokenization, and new payment flows can still support the possibility of double-digit revenue growth for network companies such as V/MA.
Core views
The report's core views include: first, global card payment volume can still grow, but the growth rate is retreating from post-pandemic highs, with 2025-2030E expected at about 8% constant-currency growth and about 7-8% nominal growth; second, the U.S. consumer card payments market is approaching maturity, with card penetration at about 72% in 2025, so future growth will depend more on PCE and limited further penetration gains; third, Europe is an underappreciated high-quality market, where cash digitization, share shifts from local schemes, cross-border merchant acceptance, and fintech partnerships jointly support growth; fourth, APAC is the most competitive region, with differentiated local dynamics across China, India, Indonesia, Australia, South Korea, and other markets; fifth, A2A, local payment methods, and stablecoins create noise and localized risks, but for now they have not overturned the medium-term growth logic of card networks.
Analysis framework
The report uses a top-down global payments forecasting model, decomposing card purchase volume growth into underlying PCE growth and penetration gains from migration from cash to cards, and evaluates the U.S., Europe, APAC, LATAM, Canada, and MEA by region. The report also distinguishes transaction value from transaction count because transaction count contributes more to V/MA revenue; in addition, it assesses the impact of domestic payment schemes, digital wallets, A2A, stablecoins, tokenization, VAS, and new payment flows on the revenue growth algorithm of card networks.
Methodology notes
card purchase volume growth decomposition
The report breaks down global card purchase volume growth in 2025-2030E into about 5-6% PCE growth and about 2-3 percentage points of card penetration gains, while excluding or separately handling certain new payment flows, Visa Direct, commercial cards, and China mainland-related complexities.
assessing the cash-to-card opportunity by region
The report separately evaluates card penetration, growth rates, and local payment dynamics in the U.S., Europe, APAC, LATAM, Canada, and MEA to judge where cash/check digitization headroom still exists.
transaction count growth matters more for network revenue
The report notes that more than one-third of V/MA total revenue comes from transaction count-related revenue. Transaction counts usually grow faster than or close to payment volume, so looking only at card payment volume would underestimate the revenue elasticity of network companies.
assessment of disruption from A2A, local payments, and stablecoins
The report compares alternatives such as India, Brazil, local Asian wallets, European domestic schemes, and stablecoins, concluding that they will affect some debit and local markets, but overall medium-term risk remains manageable.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- VCore beneficiary; the report places it together with MA at the center of the global payment network investment thesis.
- Strengths
- Global network, transaction count-related revenue, VAS, European share opportunities, and partnership capabilities in digital wallets and A2A solutions.
- Weaknesses
- High U.S. card penetration is slowing incremental growth, and some regions face pressure from local payment methods and regulation.
- Comparison
- Relative to local domestic schemes, V has advantages in cross-border acceptance and commercial network reach in regions such as Europe.
- Risks
- European payment nationalism, A2A, local wallets, regulation, and fee pressure.
- MACore beneficiary, with additional optionality in mainland China licensing and cross-border wallet partnerships.
- Strengths
- Transaction network, contactless payment penetration, Alipay+-related cross-border wallet partnerships, mainland China domestic processing license, and Mastercard Move expansion.
- Weaknesses
- APAC growth is affected by China, local debit performance, and domestic schemes; the mainland China opportunity may require years of development.
- Comparison
- Relative to V, MA shows unique optionality in its mainland China domestic processing license and certain Asian wallet partnerships.
- Risks
- Mainland China regulatory and geopolitical risks, APAC local competition, and substitution from A2A and local payment methods.
- ADYENListed as an OP-rated payment name, benefiting from long-term growth in global digital payments and merchant acquiring.
- Strengths
- Digital payments and e-commerce growth can provide long-term benefits.
- Weaknesses
- The report summary does not provide detailed company-level financial or valuation support.
- Comparison
- Compared with V/MA, ADYEN has more exposure to merchant payment processing and acquiring.
- Risks
- Payment processing competition, merchant pricing pressure, and macro consumption slowdown.
- XYZListed as an OP-rated payments/fintech name.
- Strengths
- Could benefit from growth in digital payments and new payment scenarios.
- Weaknesses
- The report excerpt does not provide specific company-level support.
- Comparison
- Compared with V/MA, XYZ likely reflects more exposure to payment applications or merchant-side fintech.
- Risks
- Competition, changes in consumer payment behavior, and pricing pressure.
- TOSTListed as an OP-rated payments/fintech name.
- Strengths
- Could benefit from merchant digitization and the combination of payments and software.
- Weaknesses
- The report excerpt does not provide specific company-level support.
- Comparison
- Unlike card networks, TOST is more exposed to vertical merchant services.
- Risks
- Merchant demand, competition, and macro consumption volatility.
- PYPLListed as an MP-rated name.
- Strengths
- Digital wallets and e-commerce payments remain important parts of the long-term payments ecosystem.
- Weaknesses
- Compared with V/MA, the report places more emphasis on the advantages of network companies in wallet partnerships and transaction count-related revenue.
- Comparison
- Digital wallets can be both partners of card networks and competitors in certain scenarios.
- Risks
- Local wallets, A2A, merchant pricing pressure, and competition.
- FISListed as an MP-rated payment processing name.
- Strengths
- Exposure to payment processing and financial infrastructure.
- Weaknesses
- The report excerpt does not provide specific company-level growth highlights.
- Comparison
- Relative to V/MA, FIS has more processor and infrastructure characteristics.
- Risks
- Processor competition, pricing pressure, and customer budget cycles.
- FISVListed as an MP-rated payment processing name.
- Strengths
- Participant in the payment processing ecosystem.
- Weaknesses
- The report excerpt does not provide specific company-level support.
- Comparison
- Relative to card networks, processors are more sensitive to merchant and financial institution customer cycles.
- Risks
- Competition, pricing pressure, and technological substitution.
- GPNListed as an MP-rated payment processing name.
- Strengths
- Exposure to merchant payment processing.
- Weaknesses
- The report excerpt does not provide specific company-level support.
- Comparison
- Relative to V/MA, GPN is more exposed to merchant processing and the acquiring chain.
- Risks
- Macro consumption, competition, and merchant pricing pressure.
- KLARListed as an MP-rated fintech/payments name.
- Strengths
- Exposure to digital payments and consumer finance scenarios.
- Weaknesses
- The report excerpt does not provide specific company-level support.
- Comparison
- Relative to card networks, KLAR depends more on specific consumer payment formats and credit cycles.
- Risks
- Credit risk, regulation, changes in consumer behavior, and competition.
Key data
- global card purchase volume growthabout 8% constant-currency growth in 2025-2030E, about 7-8% nominal growthBelow about 9% constant-currency growth in 2022-2025; the model's exit growth rate in 2030 is about 7%.
- global card penetrationabout 64% in 2025, approaching about 71% by 2030EAbout 47% in 2019; the pandemic accelerated e-commerce, contactless payments, and growth in digital payment users.
- global C2B payments marketabout $40 trillionThe report estimates there is still about $11 trillion of cash/check opportunity in 2025.
- regional growth forecastU.S. about 5-6%; Europe about 11% constant currency; APAC about 5% constant currency; LATAM about 13%; Canada about 5%; MEA about 14%Europe, LATAM, and MEA are the main regions for penetration gains, while APAC is affected by China and local payment dynamics.
- regional card penetrationU.S. about 72%; Europe about 77%; APAC excluding mainland China about 41%; LATAM about 48%; Canada about 92%; MEA about 61%Canada and the U.S. are already relatively mature, while LATAM, MEA, and some European markets still have room for improvement.
- cash/check opportunityabout $11 trillion globallyOf this, the U.S./Canada account for about $2 trillion, Europe about $3 trillion, APAC excluding mainland China about $3-4 trillion, and LATAM about $1.5-2 trillion.
- transaction count growthabout 9% globally in 2025-2030ETransaction count growth is higher than or close to payment volume growth and contributes significantly to V/MA revenue.
- Visa revenue structure referenceData processing revenue accounted for 36% of FY25 revenueThis revenue is tied to each transaction, illustrating the importance of transaction counts and tokenization to network revenue.
- contactless payment penetrationFor MA face-to-face transactions, tap-to-pay penetration was 77% in 2025 and 78% in 1Q26It was 45% in 2021; contactless payment is an important catalyst for cash-to-card conversion.
Impact & implications
The investment implication is that the medium- to long-term growth logic for payment networks is shifting from 'pure cash-to-card conversion' to a more complex growth algorithm: underlying PCE, regional penetration, transaction counts, VAS, tokenization, new payment flows, and cross-border partnerships all jointly drive revenue. For V/MA, even if card payment volume growth slows, they may still achieve double-digit revenue growth through transaction counts and value-added services; however, the market needs to keep tracking U.S. maturity, local competition in APAC, European payment nationalism, A2A, and regulatory risks.
Risks
- U.S. consumer card payment penetration is already high, slowing incremental growth from cash-to-card conversion.
- APAC has multiple local market dynamics, including mainland China, local wallets, domestic schemes, and weak debit card performance in India and Indonesia.
- Europe faces payment nationalism risks, such as local initiatives including EPI and Wero.
- A2A and local payment methods may disrupt debit cards and low-value payment scenarios in specific markets.
- Stablecoins have practical utility in some markets with strong U.S. dollar demand and could change cross-border or specific payment scenarios over the long term.
- Regulation, fee caps, merchant acceptance costs, and changes in payment network business models could compress returns.
- Agentic e-commerce and automated agent transactions are still early-stage; if adoption is slower than expected, the related optionality will be hard to incorporate into fundamentals.
What to watch
- Whether global card payment volume in 2025-2030E can maintain about 8% constant-currency growth.
- Whether transaction count growth continues to exceed payment volume growth, and changes in the share of V/MA data processing revenue.
- The sustainability of cash digitization in Europe and share transfer from local domestic schemes to V/MA.
- Local payment dynamics in mainland China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Australia, and South Korea within APAC.
- Progress on Mastercard's mainland China domestic processing license, card issuance, and acceptance network buildout.
- The impact of alternative payment schemes such as A2A, local wallets, and EPI/Wero on debit cards and card network share.
- Real use cases for stablecoins in retail consumer payments and cross-border payments.
- The contribution of agentic e-commerce, automated agent transactions, micropayments, and tokenization to card network transaction counts and VAS revenue.