Global semiconductor sales in May 2026 significantly exceeded seasonality, with memory still the core driver
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Global semiconductor sales in May 2026 significantly exceeded seasonality, with memory still the core driver
Bernstein's WSTS tracking shows that global semiconductor sales rose 118.8% year-over-year and 16.1% month-over-month in May, well above the historical May average, driven mainly by memory sales and rising prices.
- Global semiconductor sales rose 118.8% year-over-year in May, above April's 106.4%, with memory sales up 325.7% year-over-year.
- Total sales rose 16.1% month-over-month, above the historical May average of 8.5%; however, at the product-group level, most MoM performance was weaker than or close to typical seasonality.
- Storage contributed about $200B in incremental year-to-date revenue, and storage price increases alone contributed about two-thirds of industry year-to-date revenue growth.
- Excluding storage, semiconductor sales still grew 34.0% year-over-year, indicating that non-memory demand also remains relatively strong, while DRAM, some application-specific ICs and autos were weaker on a MoM basis.
- By geography, sales in the Americas, Europe, Japan, China, and Asia Pacific/other were up both year-over-year and month-over-month.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report uses SIA's monthly WSTS data to track global semiconductor sales, shipments, ASPs, product categories, end markets, and regional performance through May 2026. The core conclusion is that industry revenue continues to significantly outperform historical seasonality, with memory remaining the largest source of incremental growth, especially as both DRAM and NAND benefited from concurrent volume and pricing strength; at the same time, non-memory semiconductors remain strongly growing year-over-year, but the MoM composition is more mixed.
Core views
Bernstein believes that in May, the quality of semiconductor industry YoY and MoM growth remains highly dependent on memory. On the revenue side, total semiconductor sales grew 118.8% YoY, with memory sales up 325.7% YoY, and sales still grew 34.0% YoY excluding memory. On the price side, industry ASP rose 19.3% MoM and 94.2% YoY, mainly driven by memory price increases. By product, NAND and DSP outperformed typical seasonality MoM, while DRAM, despite 27.7% MoM growth, was below the historical typical 41.9%; Discretes, Optoelectronics, Sensors & Actuators, Analog Std Linear, and Analog App Specific were below typical seasonality.
Analysis framework
The report applies a monthly WSTS tracking framework, comparing the month’s sales, shipment, and ASP changes with historical seasonal means, YoY growth, and three-month rolling changes, and further decomposes by product group, end market, and region to assess growth drivers, price contribution, and cycle strength.
Methodology notes
Based on monthly WSTS semiconductor data, it tracks sales, unit shipments, and ASP, and breaks them down by product, region, and end market.
This approach is suitable for identifying semiconductor cycles, memory pricing, non-memory demand, and regional sales momentum, but its conclusions mainly reflect industry data and are not equivalent to earnings forecasts for a single company.
Compares the current month’s MoM growth with historical average MoM performance of the same period.
May total sales MoM growth of 16.1% was above the historical average of 8.5%, but most product-level MoM performance was weaker than or close to typical seasonality, indicating that the strong top-line was mainly driven by memory and price factors.
Decomposes revenue growth into contributions from shipment and ASP changes.
Total industry shipments were down 2.7% MoM in May, while ASP rose 19.3% MoM, showing that MoM revenue growth was mainly price-driven, especially by higher storage per-bit pricing.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Global semiconductor industryResearch subject
- Strengths
- Total sales are significantly up year-over-year and month-over-month, with May MoM above historical May seasonality.
- Weaknesses
- Shipment volume is down MoM, so revenue growth is heavily dependent on ASP increases.
- Comparison
- May MoM growth of +16.1% is above the historical May average of +8.5%.
- Risks
- If storage pricing falls back or non-storage demand does not diffuse, industry revenue growth may decelerate.
- Memory, DRAM, NANDCore growth drivers
- Strengths
- Storage sales were up 325.7% YoY, NAND MoM was up 40.7%, and DRAM and NAND per-bit prices both rose.
- Weaknesses
- DRAM MoM sales were below typical seasonal patterns, and growth is highly price-sensitive.
- Comparison
- Storage contributed about $200B in incremental year-to-date revenue, and storage pricing accounted for about two-thirds of industry year-to-date revenue growth.
- Risks
- If this price-driven growth meets supply expansion or demand slowing, it may be volatile.
- Non-storage semiconductorsSupplementary growth source
- Strengths
- Sales were still up 34.0% YoY after excluding storage.
- Weaknesses
- MoM performance in multiple product groups was weaker than typical seasonality, including analog, discretes, optoelectronics, and sensors.
- Comparison
- Non-storage is strong on a YoY basis but not at the level of storage, and its MoM structure is more mixed.
- Risks
- Uneven end-market recovery could limit valuation expansion in the non-storage segment.
- Semiconductor equipment and WFE-related stocksCycle beneficiaries
- Strengths
- The report maintains Outperform for many equipment-linked stocks such as AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ASML, Tokyo Electron, DISCO, and Advantest, emphasizing drivers such as WFE growth, GAA, packaging, HBM, and NAND upgrades.
- Weaknesses
- Positive expectations may already be partly reflected in valuations, and some companies may be affected by order pace and China substitution risks.
- Comparison
- The equipment chain benefits from storage and advanced-node capex, but individual stock drivers vary.
- Risks
- Capex slowdown, export restrictions, customer concentration, and valuation pullbacks.
- AI and data center related stocksBeneficiary theme
- Strengths
- The report is constructive on AI-related stocks such as NVDA, AMD, and AVGO, highlighting data center opportunities, AI demand, and growth trajectory into 2026-2027.
- Weaknesses
- Expectations for some stocks are elevated, with narrower valuation tolerance.
- Comparison
- Stocks with higher AI exposure have stronger narrative and growth support than traditional cyclical names.
- Risks
- AI capex may underperform expectations, competition may intensify, supply-chain bottlenecks emerge, or valuations compress.
Key data
- May global semiconductor sales YoY+118.8%May YoY was +106.4% in April, so the May YoY growth rate continued to expand.
- May global semiconductor sales MoM+16.1%Above the historical May average of +8.5%.
- Storage sales YoY+325.7%Storage is the main source of industry YoY growth.
- Sales YoY excluding storage+34.0%Non-storage semiconductors still show relatively strong YoY growth.
- Memory contribution to year-to-date incremental revenueabout $200BThe report states that memory drove about $200B of semiconductor incremental revenue year-to-date.
- Storage pricing contribution to industry revenue growthabout 2/3Storage pricing alone contributed about two-thirds of industry revenue growth since the beginning of the year.
- Total unit shipments MoM-2.7%Revenue growth was not driven by expansion in total shipment volume.
- Industry ASP MoM+19.3%ASP rose in 6 product groups and declined in 5 product groups.
- Industry ASP YoY+94.2%Mainly driven by rising storage prices.
- Americas sales YoY+150.7%All regions were up YoY, with the Americas showing the highest pace.
- China sales YoY+101.9%China showed a significant YoY increase.
- NAND MoM sales+40.7%Above the typical MoM of +26.0%.
- DRAM MoM sales+27.7%Below the typical MoM of +41.9%.
Impact & implications
For investors, the data continues to support an upside semiconductor cycle and healthy AI/storage chain demand, but also indicates that this round of industry revenue growth is highly sensitive to storage pricing. Memory, AI data centers, HBM, NAND upgrades, and WFE-related companies benefit more directly; weaker MoM performance in analog, auto, consumer, and some application-specific IC end markets suggests non-memory recovery is not yet uniform, so price durability and demand diffusion should be monitored going forward.
Risks
- Storage price gains are a high share of growth, and if DRAM or NAND prices fall, industry revenue growth may cool sharply.
- Total shipments declined MoM, indicating that May revenue strength came mostly from ASP rather than broad demand expansion.
- Analog, auto, consumer, and wireless communication end-market MoM were weak versus typical seasonality, and non-storage recovery remains uneven.
- Many semiconductor and equipment stocks trade at elevated valuations, so downward revisions to growth expectations could increase equity volatility.
- Although sales were broadly up across regions, the semiconductor industry still faces risks from export controls, geopolitics, and supply-chain disruptions.
What to watch
- Whether memory pricing and per-bit shipment metrics remain strong in subsequent monthly WSTS releases.
- Whether non-storage semiconductor YoY growth can broaden beyond +34.0% into more product groups.
- Whether DRAM MoM, after being below typical seasonal patterns, can return to a stronger trend.
- The durability of NAND MoM outperformance versus typical seasonality.
- Whether demand in consumer, auto, wireless communication, and industrial segments improves in the application-specific IC end market.
- How WFE, HBM, advanced packaging, GAA, and NAND upgrades transmit to equipment company order flow and revenue.
- The extent to which AI data center demand continues to support NVDA, AMD, AVGO, and the storage/equipment chain.