Global steel prices broadly rebound in April, with Brazil leading gains and China supply discipline delayed

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' May update on the global steel market, with a focus on hot-rolled coil, rebar, crude steel output, regional price ranges, trade demand, and the latest indicators for markets including China, Europe, the U.S., Latin America, India, Japan, and the Black Sea. The core message is that global steel prices broadly rebounded in April, with Brazil posting the most pronounced gains and U.S. spot prices remaining elevated; however, supply and demand remained regionally divergent, and China supply contraction is still underway but policy execution may be slower than expected.

Core views

Plate and long-product prices both improved in April, with the strongest price momentum concentrated in Brazil; month-on-month and year-to-date performance for hot-rolled coil and rebar were both leading. U.S. hot-rolled coil and rebar spot prices are among the highest in the sample, but rebar momentum was limited on a monthly basis. China prices recovered modestly from low levels, and output continued to decline year over year, but execution of the industry's anti-involution efforts and long-term capacity cuts could be delayed into 2026. European crude steel output rebounded sharply month on month in March but remained down year over year; Indian crude steel output growth accelerated, while Japan and the Black Sea saw year-over-year declines.

Analysis framework

The report combines regional cross-sectional comparison with time-series tracking, comparing month-on-month, year-to-date performance, and four-year price ranges for hot-rolled coil and rebar, while also incorporating regional crude steel output, capacity utilization, macro and property-related indicators, trade demand, and Goldman Sachs price outlooks to assess steel market conditions.

Methodology notes

• Industry monitoringSteel market barometer

  Steel market barometer

  Tracks the strength of the global steel market using high-frequency indicators such as prices, output, inventories, trade, and macro demand.

• Valuation and stock comparisonGS Factor Profile

  Goldman Sachs factor profile

  Goldman Sachs' framework for comparing stock growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors; the report discloses part of its calculation logic.

• M&A scenarioM&A Rank

  M&A rating framework

  Goldman Sachs divides the probability of a covered company being acquired into three tiers, which can affect target price construction when applicable.

• Database toolQuantum

  Goldman Sachs proprietary financial database

  Quantum provides companies' historical financials, forecasts, and ratio data for single-name analysis and cross-industry comparison.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Global steel industry

  Research theme

  Strengths

  Steel prices in major regions broadly rose in April, and most hot-rolled coil and rebar markets delivered positive YTD returns.

  Weaknesses

  Regional performance is divergent; prices in China, the Black Sea, and other markets remain relatively low, and European output declined year over year.

  Comparison

  Brazil has the strongest price momentum, U.S. spot prices are the highest, and China and the Black Sea are in relatively low-price regions.

  Risks

  Delayed supply discipline, weak property demand, changes in trade flows, and slowing macro demand.

• China steel market

  Key region

  Strengths

  Lower year-over-year output supports supply-side improvement, and the anti-involution and long-term capacity-cut policy direction remains in place.

  Weaknesses

  Execution of capacity and production discipline may be delayed into 2026, and prices remain at global low levels.

  Comparison

  China hot-rolled coil and rebar prices are below those in the U.S., EU, and Brazil.

  Risks

  Policy execution falling short of expectations, weak property-chain demand, and changes in exports and trade frictions.

• U.S. steel market

  High-price region

  Strengths

  Hot-rolled coil and rebar spot prices are among the highest in the sample, and April output and utilization improved month on month.

  Weaknesses

  Rebar prices were basically flat MoM, and some price momentum was weaker than in Brazil and Europe.

  Comparison

  U.S. hot-rolled coil spot price was about 1163 and rebar about 1014, both at high levels.

  Risks

  High prices may attract imports or suppress demand, and supply pressure may rise after capacity utilization improves.

• Brazil steel market

  Leading price-momentum region

  Strengths

  Hot-rolled coil and rebar posted among the strongest monthly and YTD gains in the sample.

  Weaknesses

  Charts show prices experienced a clear multi-year decline before recovering, so the long-term trend still needs validation.

  Comparison

  Brazil hot-rolled coil was about +10.3% MoM in April, and rebar was about +12.0% MoM, stronger than other major regions.

  Risks

  Sustainability of price increases, local demand volatility, and currency and trade factors.

Key data

• April hot-rolled coil price performanceBrazil +10.3% MoM, +20.6% YTD; U.S. +2.4% MoM, +14.7% YTD; China +2.9% MoM, +7.4% YTD.The table is based on USD price performance; some chart units were not fully shown.
• April rebar price performanceBrazil +12.0% MoM, +13.3% YTD; EU +6.9% MoM, +10.6% YTD; U.S. 0.0% MoM, +0.5% YTD.The U.S. spot price was about 1014, the highest in the sample, but momentum was weaker than in other regions.
• China steel outputDown about 3.2% year over year in the first two weeks of May.Goldman Sachs' China basic materials team noted that anti-involution efforts and long-term capacity cuts remain in place, but 2026 execution on capacity and production discipline may be delayed.
• U.S. steel productionAverage weekly steel production in April was about 7.3Mst, up 3% MoM; capacity utilization was about 79.6%.Capacity utilization rose about 2 percentage points MoM and about 4.4 percentage points year over year.
• European crude steel outputUp 16% MoM in March, but down about 3% year over year and YTD.The month-on-month increase was higher than the historical seasonal average of about 10%.
• Indian crude steel outputUp about 11% year over year in March.Growth was above the about 7% level in February and the about 10% YTD pace.

Impact & implications

The broad rise in steel prices suggests a modest short-term recovery in steel market conditions, especially in Brazil and the U.S., where price support is stronger; however, supply, demand, and price levels still vary significantly by region. If China capacity cuts and production discipline are delayed, that could limit the sustainability of further global steel price gains; meanwhile, high U.S. prices and relatively high capacity utilization may continue to support local steelmakers' profits, though demand absorption and import changes still need to be monitored.

Risks

• Delayed capacity cuts and production discipline in China's steel industry could weaken expectations for supply-side improvement.
• Global steel demand is influenced by property, manufacturing, and the macro cycle; if end-demand is insufficient, the price rebound may not be sustainable.
• Wider price gaps across the U.S., EU, China, Brazil, and other regions could alter trade flows and trigger policy or import pressure.
• Some chart units, exact values, and sources were not fully shown, so certain data points need to be checked against the original report.

What to watch

• The actual execution progress of China's anti-involution policy and long-term capacity-cut plan.
• U.S. steel capacity utilization, import changes, and the impact of high prices on demand.
• The sustainability of Brazil's strong steel price gains and local demand performance.
• Whether European crude steel output can turn positive year over year, and changes in the energy, trade, and demand environment.
• Whether India's high growth in crude steel output continues to reshape the global supply-demand pattern.