China HDT wholesale rose 33% YoY in April, while LNG and electric HDT penetration continued to improve

Overview

This report is BofA's monthly data tracking of the commercial vehicle sector within Greater China Industrials, focusing on China HDT wholesale and retail sales, new energy HDTs, LNG HDTs, and large and medium-sized buses. The report shows that overall HDT growth remained strong YoY in April 2026, with improving penetration of new energy and LNG powertrains, although MoM performance softened and large/medium-sized buses remained in YoY decline for the month.

Core views

The core views are: first, HDT wholesale and retail sales posted notable YoY growth, with demand supported by phase-V diesel heavy-truck replacement, trade-in policies, and export sales; second, penetration of new energy HDTs and LNG HDTs continued to rise, reflecting an ongoing powertrain mix shift; third, industry concentration remained high, with the top five HDT suppliers accounting for a combined 89% share in April; fourth, large and medium-sized buses underperformed heavy trucks in April, with both YoY and MoM declines in wholesale volumes.

Analysis framework

The report uses a monthly sales-tracking approach, comparing wholesale volume, retail volume, YoY, MoM, penetration, and manufacturers' market shares, and benchmarking April 2026 data against March 2026, April 2025, and cumulative 4M26 figures.

Methodology notes

• Industry monthly data trackingHDT wholesale and retail sales analysis

  YoY, MoM, sales volume, penetration

  By comparing April 2026 with the same period last year, the previous month, and cumulative 4M26 data, the report assesses HDT demand strength and changes in the powertrain mix.

• Competitive landscape analysisManufacturer market share and concentration comparison

  Market share, top-five supplier concentration, monthly and cumulative share

  The report breaks down HDT sales volume and share by manufacturers such as Sinotruk, FAW, Dongfeng, Shaanxi Auto, and Foton, and tracks changes in the combined share of the top five suppliers.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China HDT industry

  Core tracking target of the report

  Strengths

  +33% YoY wholesale and +35% YoY retail in April, supported by replacement demand and export sales.

  Weaknesses

  April wholesale was down 16% MoM, and the YoY growth rate was below CVWorld's preliminary data.

  Comparison

  April wholesale YoY growth was higher than March's +25%; the top five suppliers' share was 89%, slightly below March's 90%.

  Risks

  Subsequent demand may be affected by export volatility, policy timing, vehicle replacement progress, and macro freight demand.

• Sinotruk

  Leading manufacturer by HDT and new energy HDT share

  Strengths

  Ranked first with 28% April HDT wholesale share; new energy HDT sales were 4,619 units, ranking first with 16.6% share.

  Weaknesses

  The report did not disclose company-specific earnings, valuation, orders, or pricing data.

  Comparison

  HDT wholesale share was above 26% in March but below 30% in February; new energy HDT share was higher than 16.1% in March.

  Risks

  Whether leading market share can translate into earnings improvement still depends on pricing, costs, product mix, and competitive intensity.

• LNG HDT and related energy value chain

  Beneficiary of powertrain mix upgrading

  Strengths

  April LNG HDT sales were 31,000 units, up 79% YoY, accounting for 33.1% of HDT retail sales.

  Weaknesses

  The report did not provide data on LNG prices, operating costs, or refueling infrastructure.

  Comparison

  April LNG HDT penetration was higher than 24.8% in April 2025.

  Risks

  Changes in LNG economics, fuel price spreads, and policy support may affect the sustainability of penetration gains.

• Large and medium-sized buses

  Comparison subsegment within commercial vehicles

  Strengths

  Cumulative 4M26 wholesale volume was 32,000 units, up 3% YoY, with Kinglong and Yutong leading in share.

  Weaknesses

  April wholesale was about 8,000 units, down 5% YoY and 8% MoM, with monthly performance weaker than HDT.

  Comparison

  The April YoY decline narrowed from -16% in March; the top five suppliers' cumulative 4M26 share was 78%, broadly flat versus 3M26.

  Risks

  Bus demand recovery may be uneven and influenced by public transport procurement, exports, and the infrastructure cycle.

Key data

• April 2026 HDT wholesale volume116,973 units, about 117,000 units; +33% YoY, -16% MoMThe YoY growth rate was higher than March's +25%, but lower than CVWorld's preliminary data of +39%.
• Cumulative 4M26 HDT wholesale volume434,824 units; +23.3% YoYThe table shows total 4M26 sales volume of 434,824 units.
• No.1 April HDT wholesale shareSinotruk share 28%Higher than 26% in March 2026, but lower than 30% in February 2026.
• April HDT major manufacturer sharesSinotruk/FAW/Dongfeng/Shaanxi Auto/Foton at 28%/18%/15%/15%/13%The top five suppliers' combined share was 89% in April, versus 90% in March.
• April 2026 HDT retail volume93,000 units; +35% YoY, +6% MoMRetail data were stronger than MoM wholesale performance.
• April 2026 new energy HDT retail volume28,000 units; +77% YoY; penetration 30.2%Penetration was higher than 23.3% in March 2026 and 23% in April 2025.
• 4M26 new energy HDT retail volume72,000 units; +56.0% YoY; 28.0% of HDT retail salesCompared with 28.9% in 4M25, cumulative penetration was slightly lower.
• April 2026 LNG HDT sales31,000 units; +79% YoY; 33.1% of HDT retail salesThe share was higher than 24.8% in April 2025.
• April 2026 large and medium-sized bus wholesale volumeAbout 8,000 units; -5% YoY, -8% MoMMarch YoY was -16%, so the YoY decline narrowed in April.
• Cumulative 4M26 large and medium-sized bus wholesale volume32,000 units; +3% YoYKinglong/Yutong/Zhongtong/Anhui Ankai/Foton shares were 27%/26%/14%/7%/5%, with the top five totaling 78%.

Impact & implications

The data are broadly positive for China's heavy-truck and new energy commercial vehicle value chain, showing that replacement demand, export sales, and powertrain upgrading are jointly supporting YoY industry growth. Rising penetration of LNG and new energy HDTs could benefit OEMs and upstream energy/component players with relevant product and channel advantages; however, the MoM decline in HDT wholesale, the monthly weakness in large/medium-sized buses, and the lack of earnings and valuation data mean the investment implications still need validation through subsequent sales, pricing, margins, and policy execution trends.

Risks

• April HDT wholesale volume fell 16% MoM, indicating that monthly growth momentum is not accelerating across the board.
• April HDT wholesale YoY growth was below CVWorld's preliminary data, pointing to risks around data methodology or expectation gaps.
• Large and medium-sized bus wholesale declined both YoY and MoM in April, indicating divergence across commercial vehicle subsegments.
• The report did not provide earnings, valuation, order, or pricing data, so the link between sales improvement and investment returns still needs further verification.
• BofA Securities disclosed that it may have business relationships with issuers covered in the research report, and investors should be aware of potential conflicts of interest.

What to watch

• Whether HDT wholesale and retail data in May and June will sustain strong YoY growth.
• The execution pace of phase-V diesel heavy-truck replacement and trade-in policies.
• Whether new energy HDT penetration can remain above 30%.
• Whether LNG HDT sales and penetration will be affected by changes in fuel prices.
• Share changes among manufacturers such as Sinotruk, FAW, Dongfeng, Shaanxi Auto, Foton, and XCMG HDT.
• Whether large and medium-sized buses can shift from monthly decline to a more stable recovery.