April home appliance domestic demand weakened, exports recovered but diverged, and 618 became a test of demand resilience

Overview

This report tracks China home appliance and related consumer goods data for April 2026. The core conclusion is that domestic demand continued to weaken, with both retail sales and air conditioner ex-factory shipments under pressure; exports recovered to positive growth on a low base, but air conditioner exports still declined, and overseas demand showed regional divergence. The report also views 618 promotions as a key event for testing demand resilience after price increases.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes that in 2Q26, domestic home appliance demand still faces high-base pressure, and current production schedules for major white goods point to a single-digit y/y decline. Although the export side benefits from a low base and the potential for Chinese leaders to gain overseas share, weakening consumer sentiment in the U.S., Europe, and some regions, the crowding-out effect of high energy prices, and regional demand uncertainty remain constraints. Structurally, overseas RVC, lawn mowers, and Chinese leaders with strong value-for-money product portfolios are more resilient.

Analysis framework

The report cross-validates home appliance demand, channels, pricing, brand share, and upstream costs by combining NBS retail sales, customs exports, China Industry Online ex-factory shipments, Moojing e-commerce data, Sensor Tower app downloads, Amazon U.S. sales, real estate completion and sales, freight rates, and commodity prices such as copper, steel, and aluminum.

Methodology notes

• Industry monthly trackingHome appliance data dashboard

  Use retail sales, ex-factory shipments, exports, online channels, and commodity prices together to judge demand and profitability pressure.

  The report does not rely on a single retail measure; it compares domestic and export ex-factory shipments, brand share, online ASP, overseas app downloads, and commodity prices to identify divergence in domestic demand, exports, and costs.

• Demand proxy indicatorsUsing app downloads as a proxy for RVC and lawn mower demand

  Approximate end-demand growth by tracking the growth rate of overseas RVC and lawn mower app downloads.

  The report notes that overseas RVC industry app downloads rose 34% y/y in April, while Roborock rose 47% y/y; lawn mower app downloads show demand still maintaining double-digit growth, with Ninebot rising more than 100% y/y.

• Valuation and stock selectionGS Factor Profile

  Compare stocks against the market and peers from the dimensions of Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple, and Integrated.

  Goldman Sachs Factor Profile uses analyst forecasts and standardized rankings to convert growth, financial returns, and valuation multiples into percentiles, providing an additional backdrop for equity investing.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Midea (A/H)

  The report continues to favor it and calls it a Buy-rated name

  Strengths

  Downside risk is protected by shareholder returns, while overseas markets and emerging businesses provide upside; April total air conditioner ex-factory shipments fell 6% y/y, better than the industry total of -9% y/y.

  Weaknesses

  Weak domestic home appliance demand and declining air conditioner exports will still weigh on near-term growth.

  Comparison

  Outperformed the industry or peer average across multiple categories including air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators.

  Risks

  High domestic demand base, insufficient resilience after price increases, uncertainty in overseas demand, and commodity price volatility.

• Ninebot

  The report remains constructive

  Strengths

  Broad product line, rising share in domestic two-wheel electric vehicles, structural growth in lawn mowers, and potential in overseas two-wheel electric vehicles; valuation is near historical lows.

  Weaknesses

  Growth depends on the expansion of new categories and the sustainability of overseas demand.

  Comparison

  April lawn mower app downloads rose more than 100% y/y, indicating continued share gains.

  Risks

  Slowing overseas consumption, intensifying competition, and channel expansion falling short of expectations.

• Hisense Home Appliances

  The report is positive on it

  Strengths

  Central air conditioning business is stabilizing, revenue growth and profitability are recovering sequentially off a low base, with medium- to long-term margin expansion potential; dividend yield provides downside protection.

  Weaknesses

  April total air conditioner ex-factory shipments fell 19% y/y, including exports down 28% y/y, weaker than the industry.

  Comparison

  Outperformed the industry in March refrigerator shipments, but lagged in April air conditioner performance.

  Risks

  Slower-than-expected central air conditioning recovery, weak exports, and sluggish real estate completion.

• Roborock

  A name to watch for overseas RVC demand and share

  Strengths

  Overseas app downloads rose 47% y/y in April, faster than the industry's 34% y/y; Americas share rose 13 percentage points y/y to 28%.

  Weaknesses

  Industry download growth slowed from March, and Amazon U.S. RVC sales also decelerated sequentially in April.

  Comparison

  Stronger than iRobot, Ecovacs, and Shark in Amazon U.S. data.

  Risks

  Slowing overseas RVC demand, channel volatility, and competitor promotions.

• Copper, steel, aluminum

  Upstream cost monitoring variables for home appliances

  Strengths

  Steel prices were broadly stable, and lower aluminum prices can ease some cost pressure.

  Weaknesses

  Copper prices rose over the past month, which may create cost pressure for air conditioners and appliances.

  Comparison

  Copper up, steel stable, aluminum down, leading to mixed cost impacts.

  Risks

  Commodity price volatility could change gross margin expectations.

Key data

• NBS home appliance and electronics retail salesApril 2026 y/y -15%, March 2026 y/y -5%Retail sales growth slowed further in April on a high base.
• Total air conditioner ex-factory shipmentsApril 2026 y/y -9%, March 2026 y/y -2%Both domestic and export shipments weakened.
• Domestic air conditioner ex-factory shipmentsApril 2026 y/y -7%, March 2026 y/y +6%Below the prior production expectation of -1%, possibly affected by April price increases.
• Export air conditioner ex-factory shipmentsApril 2026 y/y -12%, March 2026 y/y -10%Broadly in line with prior production expectations, but still declining.
• Total washing machine ex-factory shipmentsMarch 2026 y/y +1%, 2M26 y/y +6%Growth slowed from the first two months.
• Total refrigerator ex-factory shipmentsMarch 2026 y/y -4%, 2M26 y/y +6%Exports shifted from +19% y/y in 2M26 to -3% y/y in March.
• VRF shipment valueMarch 2026 y/y -8%, 2M26 y/y +3%Both domestic and export shipments slowed sequentially, with domestic at -10% y/y and exports at +5% y/y.
• Overseas RVC app downloadsApril 2026 industry y/y +34%, March 2026 y/y +49%Growth slowed but remained positive; Roborock rose 47% y/y in April.
• Roborock Americas shareApril 2026 up 13 percentage points y/y to 28%Benefiting from entry into mainstream offline retail channels such as Costco.
• Ninebot lawn mower app downloadsApril 2026 up more than 100% y/yShows continuing gains in lawn mower demand and Ninebot share.

Impact & implications

For investors, the report suggests that domestic demand for traditional white goods may remain under pressure in 2Q26, and the upside from relying solely on a recovery in domestic retail is limited; however, leading players with shareholder return protection, overseas market expansion, emerging business growth, and structural category opportunities still look relatively attractive. 618 promotions, post-price-increase sell-through, and production plan changes will influence the market's view of the demand bottom.

Risks

• Domestic demand continues to underperform expectations due to a high base and price increases.
• 618 promotions fail to demonstrate demand resilience, leading the market to lower recovery expectations.
• Weakening overseas consumer sentiment creates demand uncertainty in the U.S., Europe, or the Middle East.
• The crowding-out effect of high energy prices suppresses overseas home appliance demand.
• Rising raw material prices such as copper erode margins.
• Weak real estate completion and sales weigh on central air conditioning and related appliance demand.
• Export data may underestimate shipments from leading players' overseas factories, but it also complicates assessment of true overseas demand.

What to watch

• Changes in price, sales volume, ASP, and brand share during the 618 promotion period.
• Whether production schedules for major white goods in 2Q26 continue to show single-digit y/y declines.
• Whether domestic air conditioner ex-factory shipments improve from the below-expectation April level.
• Whether air conditioner exports can recover from the y/y decline.
• Roborock's overseas RVC share and Amazon U.S. sales trend.
• The sustainability of Ninebot's lawn mower and overseas two-wheel electric vehicle growth.
• The impact of copper, steel, and aluminum prices on gross margins for home appliance companies.
• The transmission from real estate completion and sales to central air conditioning demand.