Goldman Sachs weekly tracker shows: China's activity data are mixed, while policy support continues

Overview

This report is a weekly update of China Economic Activity and Policy Tracker published by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Its core purpose is to observe the impact of energy supply shocks and policy changes on China's economic activity through high-frequency indicators. The report covers four categories of indicators: consumption and travel, production and investment, other macro activity, and markets and policy, and includes a list of major macro policy announcements since February.

Core views

Short-term signals for China's economic activity are not uniform. There has been some improvement in real estate transactions, with both primary and secondary home sales above the same period last year; consumer confidence has edged higher; and port container throughput is also above the same period last year. At the same time, however, domestic passenger flights remain below the same period last year, the flight cancellation rate is still elevated, steel demand and production remain below the same period last year, outbound cargo shipping volumes from 20 major ports have weakened, exports of rare-earth magnets to the US and Japan have declined, and the oil demand nowcast has also fallen back. Policy remains supportive, with key areas including services, consumption, infrastructure, the energy system, trade financing, urban renewal, employment, and monetary policy.

Analysis framework

The report adopts a weekly high-frequency data tracking framework, dividing economic activity into four modules: consumption and travel, production and investment, other macro activity, and markets and policy, and cross-checks data from sources including Wind, Haver Analytics, Morning Consult, CCTD, MOF, USDA, Kpler, ICIS, Oilchem, IEA, and government websites.

Methodology notes

• High-Frequency Macro TrackingChina Economic Activity and Policy Tracking Framework

  Weekly updates of four groups of indicators

  The report breaks down China's economic activity into consumption and travel, production and investment, other macro activity, and markets and policy, using weekly or near-real-time data to observe changes in economic momentum.

• Year-over-Year and Sequential Observation7-day moving average and comparison with the same period last year

  Short-term volatility smoothing and year-over-year positioning

  Many charts use a 7-day moving average and compare 2026 readings with 2025 or historical years to judge whether current levels are improving or weakening relative to the same period last year.

• Policy Event TrackingList of major macro policy announcements

  Classification of policy types

  The report organizes policy announcements since February by date and classifies them into categories such as consumption, energy, growth, trade, prices, monetary policy, housing, and fiscal policy, helping assess the direction of policy support.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China real estate chain

  Improvement in high-frequency primary and secondary home sales indicators is directly linked to property sales and sentiment in the real estate chain.

  Strengths

  Transaction volumes are above the same period last year, showing signs of marginal repair in demand.

  Weaknesses

  The report only provides high-frequency transaction indicators and does not prove a broad-based improvement in prices, inventories, or developer investment.

  Comparison

  Primary home sales are marked at YoY +16.9% and secondary home sales at YoY +7.4%, both stronger than the same period last year.

  Risks

  If policy support does not continue or household confidence remains weak, the improvement in transactions may be difficult to transmit into investment and credit expansion.

• China industrial and infrastructure chain

  Steel demand, steel output, coal consumption, special bonds, and EPMI together reflect production and investment activity.

  Strengths

  Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces is above the same period last year, the seasonally adjusted EPMI has risen month over month, and policy continues to advance infrastructure and urban renewal.

  Weaknesses

  Steel demand and output remain below the same period last year, indicating that the recovery in traditional industrial activity is still incomplete.

  Comparison

  The production side is weaker than the improvement seen in consumption and real estate transactions, showing divergence.

  Risks

  If special bonds and project lists are slow to convert into actual work, physical infrastructure activity may lag.

• China transportation and travel chain

  Domestic passenger flights, flight cancellation rates, and the traffic congestion index reflect travel activity.

  Strengths

  Domestic passenger flights increased over the past week, the flight cancellation rate declined, and the congestion index rose.

  Weaknesses

  Domestic flights remain below the same period last year, and the cancellation rate remains above the same period last year.

  Comparison

  Travel activity improved sequentially but remains weak year over year.

  Risks

  Energy supply shocks, weather, or operational disruptions may continue to affect aviation and travel data.

• Energy and chemicals

  Gasoline and diesel prices, sulfuric acid and ammonia prices, energy and plastics import prices, and the oil demand nowcast are used to observe costs and demand.

  Strengths

  Price data provide a high-frequency view of how energy supply shocks affect economic activity.

  Weaknesses

  The latest oil demand nowcast edged down to 17.2mb/d, and some demand indicators are weak.

  Comparison

  Sulfuric acid and ammonia prices continue to rise, while prices of other highly exposed chemical products have stabilized somewhat.

  Risks

  Energy price volatility may affect industrial costs, inflation expectations, and policy responses.

• RMB and rates market

  Interbank repo rates, the countercyclical factor implied by the USDCNY fixing, and PBOC policy language affect liquidity and FX expectations.

  Strengths

  Interbank repo rates continue to decline, and the PBOC reiterated its moderately accommodative stance at the first-quarter monetary policy committee meeting.

  Weaknesses

  Exchange-rate management and external pressures still need to be monitored, and the report does not provide directional trading recommendations.

  Comparison

  Monetary policy signals are more supportive than growth data.

  Risks

  External FX volatility, trade frictions, or changes in capital flows could increase RMB volatility.

• China foreign trade and port chain

  Port container throughput, outbound cargo shipping volumes, US soybean export sales to China, and rare-earth magnet exports together reflect trade activity.

  Strengths

  Official port container throughput rose slightly and was above the same period last year.

  Weaknesses

  Outbound cargo shipping volumes from 20 major ports declined and were below last year's level; US soybean export sales to China continued to fall; and rare-earth magnet exports to the US and Japan declined.

  Comparison

  Trade indicators show significant internal divergence, with container throughput stronger than cargo shipping and some commodity flows.

  Risks

  Trade policy, export controls, overseas demand, and geopolitical changes could amplify volatility.

Key data

• Primary home sales in 30 citiesYoY +16.9% as of April 23Chart annotations show that average daily primary home transactions in 30 cities rebounded over the past week and were above the same period last year.
• Secondary home sales in 16 citiesYoY +7.4% as of April 23Charts and text show that average daily secondary home transactions in 16 cities were broadly flat over the past week and above the same period last year.
• Domestic passenger flights-1.9% versus 2025 as of April 23The report says domestic route passenger flights increased over the past week but remained below the same period last year.
• Domestic flight cancellation rate7.6 percentage points higher than 2025 as of April 23The report says the cancellation rate declined over the past week but remained above the same period last year.
• Traffic congestion indexYoY -0.9% as of April 22The chart shows that the traffic congestion index in major cities rose over the past week, but the annotated point was still slightly below the same period last year.
• Gasoline and diesel pricesCut by 555 and 530 yuan/ton respectively on April 21The report records that domestic gasoline and diesel prices were reduced on April 21.
• Local government special bondsRMB 1.33bn issued year to dateThe chart title shows the year-to-date issuance scale of local government special bonds.
• EPMISeasonally adjusted April level rose from MarchThe report chart indicates that the seasonally adjusted EPMI increased in April.
• China oil demand nowcastLatest reading 17.2mb/dThe report estimates that China's latest oil demand reading edged down to 17.2mb/d.
• April 19 NDRC project listRMB 216.8bn CGSB fundingThe policy table shows that the NDRC released the second batch of 2026 project lists for "Two Major" construction, involving areas such as AI and the construction and renovation of urban underground pipeline networks.
• April 10 consumer goods trade-in program62.5 billion yuan CGSBThe policy table shows that the NDRC allocated the second batch of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bond funds to local governments for consumer goods trade-in programs.

Impact & implications

For investment and macro judgment, this set of data suggests that China's economy remains in a phase of structural repair rather than broad-based synchronized expansion. Improved real estate transactions and some consumption policy signals help stabilize expectations for domestic demand; however, indicators such as transportation, steel, freight, rare-earth magnet exports, and oil demand show that real activity still faces uneven pressure. Continued policy support for services consumption, infrastructure, energy security, and trade implies that short-term macro trading needs to track both high-frequency activity data and the pace of policy implementation.

Risks

• The report is based on high-frequency data, and weekly changes may be affected by seasonality, weather, holidays, data definitions, or temporary disruptions.
• Some charts involve changes in sample coverage; for example, the traffic congestion data source switched from Gaode Map to Baidu Map, with a different number of sample cities.
• Policy announcements are not equivalent to actual policy effectiveness; the real growth impulse depends on execution speed, funding availability, and responses from businesses and households.
• Energy supply shocks, price volatility, and changes in external demand may cause economic activity indicators to remain divergent.
• This report is a macro thematic study and does not constitute an investment recommendation for any individual stock or security.

What to watch

• Whether the improvement in real estate transactions can continue and transmit to prices, inventory destocking, and developer investment.
• Whether domestic passenger flights, the flight cancellation rate, and the traffic congestion index continue to recover.
• The strength of support for production and investment from steel demand, coal consumption, EPMI, and the rollout of special-bond-funded projects.
• Whether trade indicators such as port throughput, cargo shipping volumes, soybean imports, and rare-earth magnet exports continue to diverge.
• Changes in interbank repo rates, PBOC policy language, and the countercyclical factor implied by the USDCNY fixing.
• The follow-through pace of policies related to services, consumer goods trade-in programs, urban renewal, and "Two Major" construction projects.